Assessing the Mariners’ playoff odds after a dreadful road trip

The Mariners closed out a hellish road trip with an especially loud thud, getting swept out of Philadelphia while being outplayed in every aspect of the game: Seattle’s starters stuttered and stumbled, the once-indomitable lineup was stymied, and the bullpen was…the bullpen. Still, as it stands today, FanGraphs gives the Mariners an 87% chance of making the postseason. So why does it feel so doom-and-gloom?

Possibly because the highs were so high before the lowest of lows on this road trip. The Mariners sailed triumphantly out of town on August 11 fresh from a 9-1 homestand with a 94.5% chance (FG) of making the playoffs, with the division within striking distance. The national media took notice of the Mariners, building hype ahead of the Little League Classic, a rare Sunday Night Baseball appearance for the team from “South Alaska.” And the Mariners rewarded all that newfound national attention with a 2-7 road trip that ranged in misery from a soggy series loss in Baltimore, a series loss to the Mets culminating in an embarrassing primetime loss, and getting thoroughly mollywhopped by a Phillies team that looks poised to make a deep October run: the polar opposite of the version of the Mariners that showed up on this road trip.

But travel back in your mind to early June, when the Mariners were swept by this same Baltimore team, lost a series to the lowly Angels, and then were swept by the Diamondbacks, a team that would later sell aggressively at the deadline (and to these same Mariners). On June 11, a Thursday off-day, FanGraphs gave the Mariners less than a 45% chance to make the playoffs, and just a 22.5% chance of winning the division. If you had told your early June self that on a Thursday off-day with just over a month left in the season the team had nearly doubled those odds—and they’re up to 47.5% to win the division on FanGraphs—you’d have been pretty happy about that. And if you think back to late February, when the Mariners entered spring training with question marks penciled around the infield, it’s impressive that an off-season where ESPN gave the Mariners a fat “F” for their off-season moves and both CBS Sports and The Athletic gave the Mariners a “D” has resulted in playoff contention at all.

Part of what’s been so frustrating about this team is their inconsistency. A sizzling-hot April was followed by a meh May and a June swoon. A surprising sweep against the Padres in May was followed by a series loss the the Nationals at home. A sweep at the hands of the Yankees in July, lowlighted by one of the worst losses of the season when Bryan Woo’s gem unraveled late, was followed by sweeping the dominant Tigers. And most recently, the high of this past homestand was followed by this absolute stinker of a roadtrip. At times the Mariners look unbeatable for stretches; at other times, it feels like they’ll never get a hit or pitch a clean inning again. For an organization that preaches the value of consistency, there have been significant ups and down, for the team as a whole and for individual players.

But even with the ups and downs—and this most recent sharp downward turn—there’s a clear trend line moving up from mid-June onwards. On a recent appearance on 710 Seattle Sports, Jeff Passan said he’s not concerned about the Mariners despite their dismal roadtrip.

“One game does not dictate what the rest of the season is going to look like. When you look at it holistically, you see a great pitching staff, you see a great lineup, you see a team that plays good defense and runs the bases well. All of those fundamental elements are in place for the Mariners to have a memorable season. Rather than allow yourself to be dragged into the doldrums by what nine innings will tell you, look instead at the previous thousand-plus innings and remember that this team has shown that is very good, and that it will continue to be.”

The Mariners return home this Friday to face an AL West rival in the A’s. The Mariners have a 5-1 record when there are more than 40,000 fans in the building. Do with that information what you will.