Missouri State football's debut season in Conference USA is quickly approaching. Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for their first FBS season.
Missouri State football will join Conference USA this season, hoping to make a good first impression upon becoming an FBS program for the first time.
Expectations aren't high, which is typical for a program making the jump from the FCS ranks. The Bears will have several opportunities to show why they shouldn't be counted out in future seasons when facing Group of 5 opponents and hosting College Football Playoff contender SMU at Plaster Stadium.
The Bears don't have to win much for the 2025 season to be considered a success, but there are ways this season could go downhill, which could impact the faith fans and skeptics have in Missouri State's new era.
Here are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Bears for the 2025 football season:
Missouri State football's best-case scenario in 2025?
Missouri State shows it belongs in Conference USA, FBS
The 2025 season for the Bears will be about showing that it's worthy of being a Conference USA program at the FBS level. Being competitive and grabbing a few wins along the way will be a great first step for the Bears as they head into the future.
Jokes are aplenty about the Bears being at the FBS level, considering their football history isn't very good. Until recent years, it was worth wondering if the Bears should even support football. Now, they're playing in the highest subdivision and will see a handful of games nationally televised this fall.
Missouri State has a respectable roster, with a quarterback who should be in the late-round NFL Draft conversation. It's capable of surprising some, and the best-case scenario would be silencing critics en route to a promising future.
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Approach bowl eligibility in a year they're ineligible
The Bears are ineligible to go to a bowl game in 2025 because of NCAA rules, but approaching the six-win requirement could turn into a lot of excitement for the future, as well as the small possibility they could be invited to a bowl game anyway.
Six wins, with at least five coming against FBS opponents, would be quite a statement in the Bears' first year at the FBS level. Programs tend to struggle upon entering, and the Bears haven't beaten an FBS program since 1990. Much love would head Bears coach Ryan Beard's way as they look to their first season of bowl eligibility next year.
Plus, if not enough teams win six games and the Bears win a sixth, they may be invited to play in one, as other FCS-to-FBS programs have been able to do in recent seasons.
Plaster Stadium sells out for SMU game, sets attendance record
Positive momentum in fan interest is crucial for the football program, particularly given that the Conference USA move was made with football in mind. That should start with the Bears' home opener against SMU, which is fresh off a College Football Playoff appearance.
Selling out the SMU game is a must for the athletics department. The Mustangs should enter the game nationally ranked and with a Heisman hopeful at quarterback. It could be a while before the Bears can land a program of this prestige again.
Selling out and setting the program's attendance record should be attainable goals. Anything less should lead to further questions about the overall interest in the Missouri State athletics program. A sellout here should lead to some good momentum for other home games.
Missouri State football's worst-case scenario in 2025?
Lose to UT Martin
Nothing would be worse than losing to the lone FCS program on the schedule. These two have had a solid mini-rivalry over the last few years, but Missouri State needs to show why it's now playing at a higher level than the Skyhawks. Losing to UT Martin, at this point, would be inexcusable.
Missouri State fans don't buy into the new FBS era
Former MSU athletic director Bill Rowe said the only way the Bears can be embarrassed when they host SMU will be if fans don't show up and sell out the game. Whatever happens on the field, when the Bears are heavy underdogs, won't matter.
It's no secret Missouri State's gone all-in on football, which may lead to other sports sacrificing a little bit (have you seen the men's basketball team's non-conference schedule?). The Bears need to provide an entertaining product and get fans in the stands, particularly for marquee matchups with SMU, Western Kentucky, and their Wednesday night game against Florida International.
Bears don't provide hope for the 2026 season
The Bears aren't expected to compete for a championship or be in the top half of the league, for that matter, but they need to provide some hope heading into 2026, which will be their first year of bowl eligibility.
Although Beard's job appears safe under the new administration, numerous coaches who have made the FCS-to-FBS jump have been quickly fired or have struggled mightily. A less-than-ideal year probably won't lead to a change after this season, but it could get some wondering if the temperature should be turned up over the next few years.
This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Missouri State football predictions: Best-case, worst-case scenarios
Category: General Sports
