According to ESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictions, Penn State is ready for a big season.
ESPN's FPI odds are already forecasting Penn State to be one of the top two contenders for the Big Ten championship and easily on the radar for a shot at a national title. But if we dig just a little deeper, how much confidence do ESPN's metrics have in Penn State on a week-by-week basis?
Below is a look at each game on Penn State's 2025 schedule with a closer look at ESPN's FPI matchup predictor results for each matchup. As you should probably have come to expect, Penn State appears to be a comfortable favorite in just about every game on its schedule this season, including home games against Oregon, Indiana, and Nebraska. But that road trip to Columbus continues to look like the biggest hiccup of the year.
Here is how the ESPN FPI matchup predictions look for Penn State's entire 2025 season, as well as a running look at Penn State's projected record based on these odds.
Aug. 30 vs. Nevada
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 99.0%
- All-Time Series | First meeting
- Projected Running Record | 1-0
Sep. 6 vs. FIU
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 98.3%
- All-Time Series | PSU leads 1-0
- Projected Running Record | 2-0
Sep. 13 vs. Villanova
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 99.0%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 5-3-1
- Projected Running Record | 3-0
Sep. 27 vs. Oregon
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 72.9%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 3-2
- Projected Running Record | 4-0
Oct. 4 at UCLA
- Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 82.0%
- All-Time Series | UCLA leads 4-3
- Projected Running Record | 5-0
Oct. 11 vs. Northwestern
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 94.0%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 16-5
- Projected Running Record | 6-0
Oct. 18 at Iowa
- Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 75.6%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 18-14
- Projected Running Record | 7-0
Nov. 1 at Ohio State
- Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- Predicted Winner | Ohio State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 42.8%
- All-Time Series | Ohio State leads 26-14
- Projected Running Record | 7-1
Nov. 8 vs. Indiana
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 82.7%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 25-2
- Projected Running Record | 8-1
Nov. 15 at Michigan State
- Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 87.3%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 19-18-1
- Projected Running Record | 9-1
Nov. 22 vs. Nebraska
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 83.7%
- All-Time Series | Nebraska leads 10-8
- Projected Running Record | 10-1
Nov. 29 at Rutgers
- SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
- Predicted Winner | Penn State
- Nittany Lions Win Probability | 81.6%
- All-Time Series | Penn State leads 32-2
- Projected Running Record | 11-1
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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: ESPN FPI matchup predictions for every game on Penn State's schedule
Category: General Sports
