Picking week one college football games against the spread

Welcome to the most unpredictable college football season of our lives. How can we make such a bold statement with only a few Week Zero games in the books? Because trying to pick the Week One games accurately feels impossible for the following reasons:

• Superpowers with new starting quarterbacks and legitimate question marks.

• Teams that were pretty good last year that return excellent QBs.

• Teams that have changed drastically since 2024 because of the transfer portal/NIL that could have entirely different identities in 2025.

There is so much in flux right now, and the versions of these teams that we see this week may not match what we see in October or November. It’s going to be a spectacular ride.

Buckle up.

Records

Ari Wasserman: 1-0, with an assist from Matt Campbell.
Andy Staples: 0-1, and like Avery Johnson’s dad and brother, he wanted to fight someone after Farmageddon.

On to the picks…

Nebraska vs. Cincinnati in Kansas City (+6.5) Total: 53.5

Andy: Will Nebraska coach Matt Rhule’s third year three match his first two as a college head coach? In year three at Temple, he went 10-4 after going 6-6 in year two. In year three at Baylor, he went 11-3 after going 7-6 in year two. Nebraska went 7-6 last year, so if history holds, this will be a breakout season. If it is, Nebraska should be able to beat Cincinnati comfortably.
The pick: Nebraska to cover.

Ari: The Nebraska hype train is rolling pretty good right now. Josh Pate and others have the Cornhuskers in their CFP fields. Given the trajectory of the two programs, it would seem easy to pick a Nebraska cover here. But Cincinnati defensive tackle Dontay Corleone could muck things enough to keep it interesting for four quarters. Nebraska wins, but not by seven or more.
The pick: Cincinnati to cover.

Georgia Tech at Colorado (+4) Total: 54.5

Andy: The Yellow Jackets lost receiver Eric Singleton Jr. to the portal, but they kept quarterback Haynes King and star back Jamal Haynes. Most important, coordinator Buster Faulkner is still running the offense. 

Colorado improved dramatically in year two under Deion Sanders, but now the Buffaloes must adjust to losing the best player in college football (Travis Hunter) and a record-setting QB (Shedeur Sanders). Sanders hasn’t revealed whether Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter or freshman Julian Lewis will start at quarterback. It’s possible Sanders plays both.
The pick: Georgia Tech to cover.

Ari: Who is Colorado going to be this year? You could make the case the Buffaloes were a step ahead in their build a year ago given the rise of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Those stars — along with studs like LaJohntay Wester — are off into the NFL. Colorado did add some key pieces in the portal, but Georgia Tech is a really, really tough opener.
The pick: Georgia Tech to cover.

Auburn at Baylor (+2.5) Total: 57.5

Andy: Baylor finished last season on a hot streak, winning its final six regular-season games and keeping itself mathematically alive for the Big 12 title game until the season’s final week. That rise corresponded with QB Sawyer Robertson taking full command of coordinator Jake Spavital’s offense. Now Robertson has had a full offseason as the starter, but he’ll be facing the nastiest defense he’s seen since coming to Baylor.

For Auburn, the question is whether the quarterback play will improve enough to avoid the crippling mistakes that doomed the Tigers’ 2024 season. Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold takes over. He has a better line and better receivers than he had in Norman last year. Can he turn that into better results?
The pick: Auburn to cover.

Ari: I’m too high on Auburn. It’s scary. But I think there’s a legitimate chance the Tigers assert themsleves as one of the fun stories of the 2025 season on Friday night. Auburn has too many good players to not drink the Kool-Aid and it is facing a very good Baylor team on the road in its opener. Give me Auburn. I’m ready to get hurt again.
The pick: Auburn to cover. 

Texas at Ohio State (-1.5) Total: 47.5

Andy: We assume these teams will be in the mix for the national title, but both have a lot of questions that will begin to get answered on Saturday. The teams just met in the Cotton Bowl in January, but the starting lineups will look quite different.

Each team is starting a new quarterback (Arch Manning for Texas and Julian Sayin for Ohio State). Texas is debuting a revamped offensive line and interior defensive line. Ohio State will have eight new starters on defense.

Both programs recruit at such a high level that inexperience will not necessarily equal a drop in quality. The question this week is whose new starters will adapt more quickly to the spotlight. It feels like Texas has fewer key players in that situation, so I’m leaning Longhorns.
The pick: Texas money line.

Ari: We spent the entire offseason breaking down Texas and Ohio State and it felt very bizarre the Longhorns were once catching three points. BetMGM has since moved the line to Ohio State -1.5 because, well, this game feels more like a coin flip. Both teams lost a lot, but Texas is my favorite to win the national title in 2025. This will be a fight between Titans. Texas wins this one.
The pick: Texas money line.

Syracuse vs. Tennessee (-14) in Atlanta Total: 50.5

Andy: The player movement era makes games like this one virtually impossible to predict. Joey Aguilar (a former Appalachian State starter who spent the spring at UCLA) replaces Nico Iamaleava (now at UCLA) at QB for Tennessee in what amounts to a player swap. Tennessee has four new offensive line starters, but the new group may be more athletic than the old one. On offense, the Volunteers’ major questions are at receiver. On defense, the line should be stout, but star cornerback Jermod McCoy isn’t likely to return just yet from a torn ACL.

Syracuse coach Fran Brown was excellent in year one, but he had to replace a lot from a nine-win team. It got tougher this spring when 2024 receptions leader Trebor Pena hit the portal. Former Notre Dame backup QB Steve Angeli will replace Kyle McCord as the Orange’s starter. He’ll be throwing to Darrell Gill Jr., who should be ready to take on a bigger role in the offense after averaging 18.4 yards a catch on 31 receptions last year. The Orange also have former Texas receiver Johntay Cook and former four-star recruit Emmanuel Ross, who redshirted last season.

This number has come down a little, but it still feels huge.
The pick: Syracuse to cover.

Ari: This is the hardest game of the week to pick and it’s a massive spread. Though most people would be inclined to take the 14 points, I’m going to ride with Tennessee because the line feels almost too big. Tennessee should have better players at 18 of the 22 positions on the field, so that should be enough to take care of Syracuse in Atlanta.
The pick: Tennessee to cover.

Alabama at Florida State (+13.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos doesn’t lack for confidence. Among the things he’s said this offseason:

“I dreamed of playing against Alabama. They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me,” Castellanos told On3’s Pete Nakos.

“I think [Florida State defensive coordinator Tony] White and our defense is the hardest defense I’ll see all year, just schematically, stuff like that, what they do,” Castellanos told reporters last week.

Alabama’s defense likely will be tougher than what Castellanos has seen in practice. And the Crimson Tide probably don’t need Saban to save them. I’m surprised this number hasn’t gone higher.
The pick: Alabama to cover.

Ari: What has to happen in this game for Florida State to keep it close? Does Ty Simpson have to have a complete meltdown in his first game as Alabama’s starter? Does Thomas Castellanos have to be Superman for Florida State? I’m having a hard time coming up with a scenario in which Alabama doesn’t roll the Seminoles, even if Florida State is a much-improved team from a year ago.
The pick: Alabama to cover.

LSU at Clemson (-4) Total: 57.5

This one started with LSU getting 2.5 points, and that number jumped as high as 4.5 before settling at four.

The biggest question mark for either team is LSU’s offensive line, which replaces four starters — including first-round tackle Will Campbell. The best known commodity in this game is Clemson’s defensive line, where T.J. Parker and Purdue transfer Will Heldt will come off the edge while Peter Woods and Demonte Capeheart clog the middle. 

That’s where this game will be won or lost. If LSU’s new line can hold up, it bodes well for the remainder of the season. The schedule will keep throwing good d-lines at LSU, but if it can handle Clemson’s, it also can handle the rest. If LSU’s offensive line struggles, it could be a very bad sign.
The pick: Clemson to cover. 

Ari: Both of these teams could win the national title. That’s a true statement. And while I’ve spent the past 3 months torn about what side I’m going to like, I think it’s a fair assumption that Clemson’s roster — from top to bottom — is superior. It’s hard not to fall in love with the Tigers defensive line, especially in a game where LSU’s offensive line is the biggest question mark.
The pick: Clemson to cover.

Utah at UCLA (-6.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: Iamaleava makes his UCLA debut against a Utah team that had an offensive makeover but should remain its usual stout self on defense. 

The bigger question is what does Utah’s offense look like. QB Devon Dampier followed OC Jason Beck from New Mexico. Expect a lot of QB run. Dampier rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 touchdowns for the Lobos last season. The bigger question is whether Utah can throw. The receiving corps is transfer heavy, but other than New Mexico transfer Ryan Davis, none of them put up big numbers at their old schools.
The pick: Utah to cover.

Ari: Utah is out of the spotlight, which means the Utes are going to thrust their way back into it, right? That’s the Kyle Whittingham way. Look, we’re all excited about what the new-look Bruins will bring to the table with Nico Iamaleava in the fold, but Utah is a team that can win the Big 12. I like the Utes.
The pick: Utah to cover. 

Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina (-7.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: South Carolina still has an alien coming off the edge in Dylan Stewart, but can the Gamecocks get similar production from the veteran group replacing edge rusher Kyle Kennard and defensive tackles Tonka Hemingway and T.J. Sanders? We’ll likely find out Sunday against a Virginia Tech offense with a veteran QB (Kyron Drones) working in a new system run by Philip Montgomery, who replaced Tyler Bowen when Bowen left to become the offensive line coach at Ohio State. Two of Virginia Tech’s best offensive linemen from 2024 (tackle Xavier Chaplin and center Braelin Moore) will be starting for Auburn and LSU this week. 

Virginia Tech also has a new defensive coordinator (Sam Siefkes), but it’s head coach Brent Pry’s defense. That group will have to figure out how to stop South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers, who emerged last season as one of the nation’s most dynamic signal-callers.
The pick: South Carolina to cover.

Ari: Though the hype is through the roof in Columbia for what this team could be this year, there is a chance the Gamecocks could let some people down once they get into SEC play. That doesn’t matter in this matchup. South Caorlina is the only of the two teams that has a bona fide stud on both sides of the ball. I expect the Gamecocks to overmatch the Hokies in Atlanta.
The pick: South Carolina to cover.

Notre Dame at Miami (+2.5) Total: 49.5

Andy: Both of these teams have new quarterbacks. Notre Dame went homegrown with C.J. Carr, while Miami went into the portal to get veteran Georgia transfer Carson Beck.

The Fighting Irish have a receiver group that appeared on the verge of a breakout late last season. Miami is replacing most of its receiver production, but the Hurricanes are very excited about youngsters such as freshman Malachi Toney. 

This game could come down to how well Miami’s rebuilt defense handles a Notre Dame offense anchored by one of the best lines in college football. (Miami’s offensive line is also excellent.) The Hurricanes were a sieve late last season, but the hire of DC Corey Hetherman from Minnesota and the addition of players such as cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) should radically change that side of the ball.
The pick: Miami money line.

Ari: Though there is a lot to like about Miami heading into the season, it’s hard to imagine the Hurricanes could have completely fixed their defense from a year ago. The Fighting Irish have the best offensive line in college football and perhaps the best running back in the sport playing behind it. Miami has potential, sure, but I’m going to take the team with more proven and reliable assets in this one.
The pick: Notre Dame to cover.