8 teams that missed the 2024 playoffs that can get to Super Bowl 60

Each winter, the NFL playoffs are dotted by teams who failed to advance the year prior. Sometimes these franchises make a one-and-done stop on the way to contention or a slump back to the also-rans. Other times they make a run to glory.

In 2021, the Cincinnati Bengals went from four wins to a place in Super Bowl 55. The year before that, Tom Brady's arrival turned a 7-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team into world champions. The 2016 Philadelphia Eagles won seven games, then made Nick Foles a Super Bowl MVP the following year.

It doesn't always happen, but in a league angled hard toward parity, it happens fairly often. Who could revive the trend in 2025? There are a handful of candidates, ranging from the obvious to the, uh, Carolina Panthers. Teams are listed with their 2024 records, their expected records based on point differential (courtesy of Pro Football Reference) and their record in one-possession games, which helps us get a better idea of how unlucky they may have been.

Chicago Bears

2024 record: 5-12

2024 expected record: 7-10

Record in one-possession games: 3-7

Key additions: Head coach Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, G Joe Thuney, EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, G Jonah Jackson, TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden

There have been clues pointing toward a Bears revival the last few seasons. In 2023, the addition of Montez Sweat helped Chicago field a top-three defense over the final half of the season. In 2024, the team began 4-2 and had won the final two games before its Week 7 bye by a combined score of 71-26.

Of course, things collapsed in both cases. Matt Eberflus couldn't figure out how to maximize his young talent and was shown the door (finding a coach capable of defending a hail Mary should immediately net a one-win improvement, if nothing else). He's replaced by Johnson, who gleaned the best out of relocated veterans (Jared Goff, former Bear David Montgomery) and young studs (Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams) alike. Now he gets to work with 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and 2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams.

After overhauling both sides of the line with veteran talent — Thuney, Jackson and Drew Dalman to patch a leaky blocking unit and Odeyingbo, Grady Jarrett and Shemar Turner on defense (don't worry about the cost, they're here) — the Bears are in position for a dramatic rise. Standing in their way is a cache of young talent with plenty to prove and the toughest division in football.

Las Vegas Raiders

2024 record: 4-13

2024 expected record: 5-12

Record in one-possession games: 3-4

Key additions: Head coach Pete Carroll, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, QB Geno Smith, RB Ashton Jeanty, LB Germaine Pratt, S Jeremy Chinn

Antonio Pierce was a revelation as an interim head coach, coaxing major gains from an unheralded defense to finish 5-4 following Josh McDaniels' firing. That proved unsustainable in 2024. An average defense couldn't cover for a talent-starved offense. Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder each took a turn losing games as the team's starting quarterback en route to a four-win season.

Pierce's firing gave way to the hiring of a fresh-faced, 73-year-old Carroll. He soon brought his old quarterback into the fold via trade with the Seahawks and selected Jeanty sixth overall in this year's draft in hopes of engineering another efficient, run-heavy offense in the Pacific Time Zone.

The defense won't be Legion of Boom-ready in Year 1, but should improve with healthy seasons from Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce, who missed 22 games between them in last year's lost season. A handful of buy-low free agent additions should provide a stable floor of play, even if no one is getting too excited about Devin White or Elandon Roberts at this point in their careers.

The glow-up will be the result of trusted adults in the room. Smith's accuracy and decision making as a Seahawk helped him lead the NFL in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) since 2022. Carroll can make the in-game and in-season changes with which Pierce struggled. Jeanty and Brock Bowers give Las Vegas two players who can turn low-risk plays into big gains — though the lack of wideout depth behind Jakobi Meyers is a concern.

Cincinnati Bengals

2024 record: 9-8

2024 expected record: 9-8

Record in one-possession games: 4-6

Key additions: EDGE Shemar Stewart, DT Tedarrelle Slaton, LB Demetrius Knight

The Bengals can't rely on new roster additions to guide them back to the postseason. Trey Hendrickson, responsible for nearly half the team's sacks last fall, is on the trading block as he holds out in hope of a new contract. Stewart missed a good chunk of the offseason due to his own holdout. Here he is getting blocked right out of a truly obvious situation as a run to his side of the field turns into a 27-yard touchdown.

The biggest veteran additions to the league's 28th-ranked defense are Slaton (a potent run stuffer) and Oren Burks, who is a cromulent rotational linebacker perhaps best known for getting roasted when thrust into action by Dre Greenlaw's torn Achilles in Super Bowl 58. Thus, we're left with a Cincinnati team that will have to outscore opponents to make a postseason run. Good news, everyone!

Joe Burrow is here, playing Tungsten Arm O'Doyle to a receiving corps with a couple Mikes Trout in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals passing offense ranked sixth in passing EPA last fall but 19th on the ground. Chase Brown had nearly 1,000 rushing yards in his first season as the team's top back, but was roughly as effective as Joe Mixon or Rico Dowdle when it came to generating surplus yardage (0.3 rush yards over expected per carry, 19th best among tailbacks). Brown made a solid improvement between his first and second seasons as a pro; if that growth is linear in 2025, he'll be a punishing counterpunch to Burrow's passing game.

Cincinnati made it to the Super Bowl in 2021 with a not-quite-maxed-out passing game and the league's 11th-ranked defense. The defense is unlikely to reach those heights again, but a string of 38-35 wins could get Burrow back to the promised land.

San Francisco 49ers

2024 record: 6-11

2024 expected record: 7-10

Record in one-possession games: 2-6

Key additions: EDGE Bryce Huff, EDGE Mykel Williams, DT Alfred Collins, DT CJ West, CB Upton Stout

The 49ers are an anomaly on this list. Their offseason was dotted with departures as a star-studded lineup balanced its future and salary cap management. Instead, the key arrivals will be from players who missed the bulk of 2024 due to injury; namely, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams. San Francisco managed to field the league's 11th-most efficient offense despite those key players missing a combined 30 games.

With that group bouncing back and minimal spending room, the Niners invested heavily in defensive replacements in the draft. Williams, Collins and West will be tasked with restocking the deep corps of linemen head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to throw at opponents in a never-ending cycle of misery. Last year's defense was decidedly subpar, giving up more points than all but three other NFL teams.

San Francisco will be relying on rookies to fill gaps, but also for the young guys who emerged as potential building blocks to continue their ascent. Deommodore Lenoir has emerged as one of the game's best slot corners. Malik Mustapha recorded a team-high ball hawk rate of 29.4 percent while giving up a passer rating of 54.3 as the nearest defender at safety. Ji'Ayir Brown flashed Pro Bowl upside as the free safety alongside Mustapha, giving San Francisco some comfort in allowing oft-injured All-Pro Talanoa Hufanga to leave in free agency.

The league's 19th-ranked pass rush is a concern — that's what justified the commitment to d-line BEEF in April — but there's enough rising talent here to replace the stars who've departed. With the NFC West wide open (should Matthew Stafford's back injury be a real problem), the Niners' stay in purgatory could be brief.

Atlanta Falcons

2024 record: 8-9

2024 expected record: 8-9

Record in one-possession games: 6-6

Key additions: EDGE Leonard Floyd, EDGE James Pearce, EDGE Jalon Walker, LB Divine Deablo

This hinges on Michael Penix Jr. rising to meet his station as a top-10 draft pick talented enough to convince Atlanta to hedge its Kirk Cousins dream less than two months after signing him. In 14 games with a hobbled Cousins as the starter, the Falcons ranked 15th in offensive EPA (0.014 per snap) and 17th on QB dropbacks (0.069). Those numbers rose to seventh (0.161) and 13th (0.152) in Penix's three starts.

That's encouraging, but it's a very small sample size in games against the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders — the league's 29th, 32nd and 22nd-best defenses, respectively. Penix showed the playmaking instincts and arm strength to make tough throws over the middle and to the sideline. He was given the green light to sling it and his 10.5 yard average throw distance would have been second-highest in the NFL had he taken enough snaps to qualify.

Opponents will have game tape to churn, but Penix has plenty of weapons to turn to should he struggle. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are the best 1-2 tailback punch in the NFL. Drake London's catch radius is the size of an Olympic swimming pool. Darnell Mooney rediscovered his get-back-to-the-ball wizardry after leaving Chicago and Kyle Pitts... well, hey, Darnell Mooney's pretty nice! (This slight will seem very stupid in October if Atlanta lets Pitts run wild up the seam as the downfield threat he was always meant to be).

The defense is a different concern. Atlanta opted to punch up a below-average defense with heavy rookie fortifications. 2024's 31st-ranked pass rush added James Pearce and Jalon Walker in the first round. Defensive backs Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman followed in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. Pearce and Walker will pair with the soon-to-be 33-year old Floyd in hopes of boosting a unit whose 28.1 percent pressure rate was 31st-best in the league. Any help they can give will be balm for a secondary with a couple stars (A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III) and a whooooole lot of question marks behind them.

Carolina Panthers

2024 record: 5-12

2024 expected record: 4-13

Record in one-possession games: 4-3

Key additions: WR Tetairoa McMillan, S Tre'von Moehrig, DL Tershawn Wharton, EDGE Patrick Jones, DT Bobby Brown

Sure, let's get a little wild with it. If Dave Canales pulls this off, he's the no-doubt head coach of the year. After boosting Bryce Young back from a season-plus as one of the league's worst quarterbacks, it's clear he's capable of surprises.

Getting the Panthers to the playoffs after a seven-year drought? That would be one hell of a surprise. Young was a mess early in 2024. His -0.47 expected points added (EPA) per dropback were by far the worst in the league through seven weeks, which is wild when you consider Will Levis and Spencer Rattler had also started multiple games at that point. Then, things shifted. He reentered the starting lineup after getting benched for Andy Dalton. Over the last half of 2024, his 0.141 EPA/dropback ranked 15th among 34 qualified QBs. Over the last three weeks of the season — the same sample size that made Penix look like a potential answer in Atlanta — his 0.292 EPA/dropback ranked ninth.

There's no one panacea behind Young's competence. His deep ball and play-action rates fluctuated significantly over the back half of the season, showcasing his ability to process and adjust in a potentially sustainable way. Now he gets to add a true WR1 to the lineup in McMillan and gets Jalen Coker, a significant contributor as an undrafted rookie last fall, back from the injury that kept him out of the lineup for three games down the stretch last season. If Xavier Legette can be the player Carolina envisioned when it made him a first round pick and Adam Thielen can continue to be an efficient purveyor of old man football, this is suddenly a verrrrrrrry interesting offense.

The defense could wind up replacing more than half its starters from 2024, which is a good thing when you consider that unit gave up at least 30 points 10 times last season. Wharton and Jones will look to take advantage of larger roles. Moehrig is a stabilizing force in coverage and as a tackler as the last line of defense. Those improvements won't be enough to make a run to the postseason on their own — but if Young can keep playing like he did to finish 2024, Carolina could be sneakily dangerous.

Arizona Cardinals

2024 record: 8-9

2024 expected record: 9-8

Record in one-possession games: 3-5

Key additions: EDGE Josh Sweat, DL Calais Campbell, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, CB Will Johnson

Kyler Murray is 28 years old. He's in his seventh season in the NFL. He has fewer playoff wins than Daniel Jones. While his contract effectively locks him onto the roster through 2027, it's safe to suggest he's nearing a breaking point when it comes to whether or not he can be the difference between a good offense and a great one.

He'll return with an above average offensive line, one of the league's best receiving tight ends in Trey McBride and a wideout combination of a now-yoked Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. Those receivers both underwhelmed in 2024; Harrison wasn't the best rookie WR in his class despite being drafted fourth overall and Wilson regressed after an efficient rookie 2023 that painted him as a potential breakthrough candidate. If they can fulfill the promise they generated coming into last season, Murray can cook.

A defense that barely cracked the top-25 last season is another concern. Sweat has arrived to buoy a edge rush whose 2024 leader, Zaven Collins, notched five total sacks. Arizona will also hope 2023 second round pick BJ Ojulari and 2025 first round pick Walter Nolen can return from injury and contribute to a high potential, low production pass rushing rotation. Bringing in veteran leaders like Campbell, Gaither-Davis and Dalvin Tomlinson should help set the tone up front and create a stable floor for a group that gave up 30-plus points five times last season but also held opponents to 16 or fewer six times.

This should all present a launch pad for Murray. If he can seize his moment, he'll end a playoff win drought about to reach a decade. If not, well, at least he's got two more years to reward Arizona's faith.

New York Giants

2024 record: 3-14

2024 expected record: 5-12

Record in one-possession games: 1-8

Key additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Jameis Winston, QB Jaxson Dart, EDGE Abdul Carter, CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland

Let's begin with the obvious. Going from Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito at quarterback to pretty much any other triumvirate is an upgrade. Wilson, Winston and Dart may have a defined ceiling for 2025 — though Dart has the capacity to surprise — but their floor is significantly higher than the desiccated husk of a passing game we saw in 2024. Only the Cleveland Browns were worse through the air.

The return of left tackle Andrew Thomas will be a boon for whomever is throwing passes — likely the risk-averse Wilson. He'll be bolstered by Malik Nabers, who had more than 1,200 receiving yards as a rookie while posting a top-25 yards per route run (YPRR) despite the abject misery of the quarterbacks listed above. Tyrone Tracy, a converted wideout in college, rolled in as a fifth round rookie tailback and chalked up more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his final dozen games. His efficiency wasn't great (-18 rush yards over expected for the year), but he should still be a rising asset for a team in need of playmakers.

Even if that group struggles, New York should be significantly better than its woeful 2024. The defense underperformed last fall but adds several difference makers to a solid foundation. Abdul Carter brings his Micah Parsons comparisons to a pass rush with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux already in place. Paulson Adebo has seven interceptions to two touchdowns allowed over his last two seasons and joins a cornerback rotation that got solid contributions from Dru Phillips as a rookie in the slot and is waiting on big returns from 2023 first round pick Deonte Banks. Jevon Holland is a versatile safety who can boost the play of second-year running mate Tyler Nubin. Perhaps most importantly, Dexter Lawrence returns after missing the final five games of 2024 (and ending up with nine sacks anyway).

If Nabers, Tracy, Darius Slayton and, uh, Theo Johnson? can break a few plays per game or Wilson and company can keep the offense on schedule, the Giants can roll their way into playoff contention. While the schedule isn't as favorable as it was in that 2022 postseason run, things will have to go catastrophically wrong on multiple levels for this team to be worse in 2025.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: 8 teams that missed the 2024 playoffs that can get to Super Bowl 60