Penn State-Nevada Predictions: Will Lions avoid mistakes in season opener?

Penn State kicks off its 2025 campaign as a true national championship contender. According to BetMGM, the Nittany Lions are tied with Georgia at +700 to win it all this season. Only Texas (+425) and Ohio State (+525) have lower odds to start the season.

But as head coach James Franklin always stresses, it’s all about what’s directly in front of you, not what’s coming down the road. This week, that’s a Nevada squad that went 3-10 in new head coach Jeff Choate’s first season with the program.

However, despite going 0-7 in conference play, the Wolf Pack did play up to their competition last year, beating Oregon State 42-37 and coming within a touchdown of SMU to start the season, losing 29-24.

Now, with more than 50 new players compared to last season, Franklin made it clear it’s been difficult to prepare for the Wolf Pack ahead of Saturday’s game.

“These games, I think, for everybody in college football now, they’re a little concerning,” Franklin said. “What I mean by that is when you have  54 new players, it’s hard to really have a good understanding and a feel of who you’re going to play. This could be a team that could go on and have a phenomenal year. It’s hard to really project when there is that amount of turnover.”

Despite all of that, Penn State is still a 44.5-point favorite against Nevada on Saturday. Will they avoid the early-season mistakes and cover the spread? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Sean Fitz

Penn State’s out-of-conference schedule will give the Nittany Lions a chance to sharpen up before their matchup with Oregon a month from Wednesday. It will also likely draw ire and yawns from the home crowd over the next week. But the scheduling conversation is best-suited for another day.

The Nittany Lions will welcome Nevada, which will play its first game of the season under second-year head coach Jeff Choate. Choate lauded his team for its physicality in camp earlier this week, and while the home side will hold a decisive advantage on the talent side, it will be good for the Nittany Lions to get hit in the mouth by someone wearing another jersey for a change.

The Wolfpack, out of the Mountain West Conference, has about 50 new faces on the roster this year. That’s the new reality for programs at that level in the transfer portal era. They’ll likely hit on a few, and starting quarterback Chubba Purdy has had stops at Florida State and Nebraska, but the talent gap should show up in a big way at Beaver Stadium. If Penn State is to have championship aspirations, it needs to start with a no-nonsense business outing on Saturday afternoon.

Penn State: 55
Nevada: 7

Matt Herb

Except for a late-game collapse at Indiana during the 2020 COVID season and an overtime scare vs. Appalachian State two years earlier, Penn State has taken care of business in its recent season openers. It’s won at home and on the road, beating quality Power Four opponents and overmatched Group of Five foes alike.

There’s no reason to think that pattern won’t hold in 2025. While it’s hard to know what to make of Nevada given the abundance of transfers, the Wolf Pack’s upgrades aren’t going to be enough to hold back a Penn State team that is rightfully considered a legit national championship contender. Maybe we’ll see some hiccups on defense in the first game under a new coordinator, but the Nittany Lions should romp on opening day.

Penn State: 52
Nevada: 13

Greg Pickel

We all know that Franklin has a knack for covering the spread. His teams are a perfect 4-0 over the last 12 years, both straight up and against the number, when favored by 40 or more. And that’s where they find themselves entering this contest, of course. Nevada is loaded with newcomers, which makes it a bit difficult to predict how things will go later in the contest when the Lions’ starters are out. But, talent edges exist at every single position. Still, I’m leery enough about the unknown to not call for a shutout. But a cover? There’s too much history not to pick that.

Penn State: 60
Nevada: 10

Ryan Snyder

As Greg pointed out, Franklin’s record has been strong in these spots. With games against Florida International and Villanova to come, I also think that gives the staff a reason to play the starters maybe a bit longer than some might expect. They won’t show much offensively in any of these nonconference games, but I think there will be enough early-season mistakes to keep the starters in through the third quarter.

Nevada struggled last year, but it did cover in two of their three games against Power Four opponents, including an upset win over Oregon State. They were also within a touchdown of SMU, although that was before the Mustangs made the switch to Kelvin Jennings at quarterback.

I trust Penn State’s starters on offense to average two touchdowns a quarter, but can the defense, especially the backups late in the game, keep Nevada under 10 points? Allowing two touchdowns makes this a hard number to cover. At the same time, the fact that Nevada has 50 new players means they’ll also be making plenty of mistakes.

A defensive or special teams score should allow Penn State to cover this spread. Personally, I’m leaning towards the over if you want to bet it. It reached as high as 60.5 at one point and is now 56.5.

Penn State: 56
Nevada: 10