Tale of the tape: How Michigan football matches up vs. New Mexico

The Michigan Wolverines open the 2025 season on Saturday night against New Mexico under the lights of the Big House. It will be the largest football gathering in North America this weekend, but more eyes than just the 110,000-plus will be on what transpires in Ann Arbor.

Michigan is installed as a 34.5-point favorite over the Lobos, but there is plenty of juice from a national perspective in the form of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s debut. Most of the primetime eyes will be on LSU at Clemson, but those with a vested interest in U-M will be getting their first look at 2025’s No. 1 overall recruit and a signal-caller seen as the best since Trevor Lawrence came onto the scene in 2018.

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New Mexico brings in some intrigue under head coach Jason Eck, who came over from FCS Idaho, bringing several of his players with him, in addition to numerous other transfers. Eck led Idaho to a 10-4 mark last season and gave Oregon a scare in last year’s opener, losing 24-14. The Lobos have playmaking talent on both sides of the ball and have the ingredients to be pesky.

There are so many unknowns with both teams heading into the opener, so this week’s breakdown is more speculation and background than in-season context. With that said, here is how Michigan and New Mexico match up on each side of the ball.

Michigan offense vs. New Mexico defense

Passing Game
Because Eck is New Mexico’s third head coach in three years, along with a massive portal transition, anything we think we know about them on both sides of the ball is out the door. Seven transfers make up the Lobos’ defensive backs room. However, they feel like their depth and athleticism on the back end is as good as it has been recently, relatively speaking. The back seven is comprised entirely of seniors sans junior linebacker Jason Eck, the head coach’s son and an FCS All-American last season. STAR Albert Nunes has done everything from rushing the passer to dropping back in coverage, so he could be a guy to keep an eye on.

In the pass rush, New Mexico also thinks it has a deep and balanced group there, too. The guy who sticks out the most is defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby, another Idaho transfer, after a 10.5 sack season in 2024. As long as the Michigan offense can neutralize him, Underwood should have a clean pocket and time to throw.

Michigan wide receiver Donaven McCulley could have a good first showing with the program and show why they prioritized adding size at the position this offseason. Standing at 6-5, McCulley will have a length advantage over everyone in the New Mexico secondary, and if they want to bring a safety over to stop him from taking the top off the defense, U-M’s options in the intermediate game should have opportunities to make plays.

This is a good soft opening for Underwood and the Michigan passing game. New Mexico’s age and experience relative to the Wolverines’ offense will provide a push, but these are all guys who have made their mark at the FCS level. Eck and company will probably throw a lot at Michigan to try and stop the run game, so this will be a good litmus test to start the year for this group.

Pick: Michigan

Running Game
New Mexico, who runs a 4-2-5 base scheme, goes 246, 265, 244 and 243 pounds along its projected starting defensive line. Even with Michigan’s offensive line questions, this matchup is tailor-made for them to get some confidence and move bodies early in the season as they prep two tough road games in the three weeks that follow the opener. They do also have 6-3, 331-pound Brian Booker, a transfer from Texas Southern, they could deploy, too.

This is not a very deep group, so look for Michigan to lean on its run game early and often to break this thing open. All of the attention will be on Underwood, but the biggest thing we can take away from the opener is whether or not the offensive line can impose its will on a team that it dwarfs in talent. If we want to key in on one player in particular, it would be starting right guard Brady Norton, who is an FCS up-transfer from Cal Poly that was dominant at that level. We would love to see that same dominance on Saturday night with questions at right guard and a battle with Nathan Efobi still ongoing.

There’s no reason Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes should not eat well here. The only question is which one of them takes the first carry. Put us down for Marshall, but both will have big runs and big moments.

Pick: Michigan

U-M defense vs. New Mexico offense

Passing Game
The Lobos are led by, you guessed it, another Idaho transfer, at quarterback in Jack Layne, who threw for 1,472 yards with 14 touchdowns last season. Layne will test Michigan in the intermediate passing game and had 11 completions of 20-plus air yards last season. It should not matter a ton, though, with New Mexico’s questions and lack of depth at wide receiver. Eck said they probably have 4 guys that are healthy enough to play the opener on a group that was already a big concern heading into the year.

The Lobos have a veteran offensive line that is expected to be one of the strengths of the team, but Michigan brings in one of the best defensive lines in the country with improved depth. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we see a rotation of 10-11 guys up front and another 7-8 guys on the back end that get thrown in there like hockey lines. This should be an overwhelmingly lopsided advantage for the Wolverines.

Pick: Michigan

Running Game
New Mexico’s stable of running backs should be its best position group and something that keeps them competitive throughout the year, perhaps just not on Saturday. Montana State transfer Scottre Montgomery is a stout and physical runner who was an FCS All-American last year with 1,386 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 7 yards per carry. Damon Blankston (Weber State), Deshaun Buchanan (Idaho) and D.J. McKinney (Sam Houston State) are all expected to play roles after leading their programs in rushing last season.

For much of the same reasons as the passing game header, Michigan should be able to sniff all of that out and make sure it does not become a problem. Any momentum that New Mexico has on Saturday night would likely be due to its ability to get the run game going and move the chains. U-M’s depth and experience up front should neutralize New Mexico’s and be another big advantage. The Lobos do not feel like they have the goods to expose any potential cracks in Wink Martindale’s defense heading into his second season on the job.

Pick: Michigan

The prediction

There are a lot of unknowns heading into Saturday. Something that isn’t a mystery is a loaded and deep Michigan defense that should suffocate a New Mexico team that has new pieces everywhere. This is a good soft opening for Underwood and the offense, who will have their bumps in the road but will be much improved overall. They’ll sputter a few times in this tune-up game, but that’s what Dominic Zvada is for. Expect dominance, but perhaps not enough to cover the spread.

Michigan 37, New Mexico 6