UConn’s path to the College Football Playoff

The UConn football Huskies are +10,000 odds to win the national championship according to FanDuel. While this is tied for the highest odds of any team in the country, there is a path for UConn to at least make the College Football Playoff.

UConn football must go undefeated… and get some help.

Impossible, you say? Absolutely not. Real ones know that UConn went undefeated in 1904 (1-0-1) and 1924 (6-0-2), so it would not be unprecedented. This year, it’s not a completely insane possibility.

UConn is not facing any major football powers in 2025. No Michigan or Tennessee. It’s not even facing any juggernauts outside of the P4, as it has many times over the last decade, like James Madison, Fresno State, Boise State, or the former powers of the AAC like Houston, Cincinnati, or UCF.

The highest-rated opponent going into the season in Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings is Duke, at 43rd. After that, Syracuse (55th) and Boston College (62nd) are the only other ones ahead of UConn, sitting at 82nd.

The remaining opponents are: Buffalo (94th), Air Force (98th), FAU (110th), UAB (113th), Delaware (114th), Rice (116th), FIU (128th), and Ball State (134th).

That’s eight opponents where UConn would be favored if they played today. Of course, losing badly to Delaware in Week 3 would change the math, and certainly Buffalo and Air Force could be close games. But for now, hope springs eternal. FanDuel’s win total for UConn this year is 7.5, by the way.

If UConn is just slightly better than expected, this is how the Huskies can beat the three teams that will be favored over them on their way to an undefeated season.

Syracuse

The Orange had a great start to the Fran Brown era with a 10-win campaign and a lot of excitement for this generally underwhelming program and athletic department.

This year, the team is replacing many key contributors across the board, including NFL Draft picks at QB, RB, and TE, in addition to their two other best pass-catchers from 2024. On defense, the losses may be even more significant as six of their top 10 tacklers and their top two in sacks are gone. UConn should compete on both sides of the ball in this matchup.

UConn plays CCSU in Week 1 and should leave that contest with great vibes. Syracuse plays Tennessee. The Orange could be beaten up and may already be looking ahead to September dates against Duke and Clemson when they host the Huskies next Saturday. Their over/under win total for this year is 5.5, so a step back is expected by the oddsmakers.

UConn is replacing a lot of pieces as well, but this is as good a time as ever to get one on Syracuse, early in the season, after losing a close one at the JMA Wireless Dome, 31-24, late last year. The all-time series between these two teams is now at 7-6 in favor of the bad guys.

If UConn is better or the same and Syracuse is worse compared to last year, the Huskies could leave this one with a dub and roll to a 6-0 start going into the game at Boston College. It would also be nice to tie up the all-time series with Syracuse and show more proof-of-concept to regional recruits about the seriousness of UConn football. Everyone in the Husky program should be motivated for this Week 2 opportunity.

Boston College

While the Huskies have not beaten Syracuse since 2011, UConn landed a big breakthrough with its first win over Boston College in 2022.

As a sequel, Jim Mora and his staff can add a road triumph to the resume against a squad that beat them in 2023 and has been on a positive trajectory since Bill O’Brien took over in 2024, which ended with seven wins and a Pinstripe Bowl loss to Nebraska.

The Eagles are hoping to be better in 2025 with a big upgrade at QB in Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan and good returning talent at running back, receiver, and the secondary. BC is rebuilding on the offensive and defensive lines, but that’s a problem that most teams face nowadays, and UConn is in a similar boat. The oddsmakers don’t see BC as likely to have a better season than last year, with its opening win-total line also at 5.5 wins.

Though it will be heading into this game as an underdog, UConn has a chance because BC does not experience a healthy home-field advantage. The student body and alumni are more likely to be fixated on hockey or high school rowing, and the late-arriving crowd will also be eager to leave early to beat the brutal Boston-area traffic. UConn fans can show up in numbers and change the environment if their squad gives them something to cheer about.

Last time the Huskies visited Chestnut Hill, in 2023, they couldn’t get anything going after taking an early 7-0 lead. They were outplayed and outgained in a 21-14 loss that was not as close as the score suggests. This time out, both teams are improved, so it should be a better overall game and a more competitive one.

If the Huskies beat Boston College, they should have no trouble against Rice and UAB to go into the Duke matchup with a 9-0 record.

Duke

This is the toughest one, for sure. Duke went 9-4 in Year 1 under Manny Diaz, may have improved in the offseason, and has high hopes for 2025 from national analysts. Still, they only beat UConn 26-21 in Durham early in 2024.

This year’s meeting is Nov. 8 at Rentschler Field, where the Dukies handed UConn a thorough beating in 2023. The Huskies proved themselves to be a competitive squad after the close road loss last season, following it with three straight wins to kick off an 8-2 finish to 2024.

Duke heads into this year’s matchup with the most coveted transfer portal QB in Tulane’s Darian Mensah, who will benefit from a talented roster and a strong O-line in front of him. Duke is replacing a lot of skill position talent, however, and has some question marks on defense at linebacker and in the secondary. Fanduel’s over/under for wins this year is at 6.5.

UConn will have to be opportunistic and make zero mistakes, but this is not a crazy upset pick. Duke may be looking ahead to a big matchup in this one, as the Blue Devils face Clemson the following week. FCS Elon just gave them a game in their season opener as well. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

The Playoff Picture

In this hypothetical dream season, UConn is 10-0 after a win over Duke. Though we have a lot of respect for the Air Force and some respect for Florida Atlantic, the Huskies should make it 12-0 if they get this far.

We have no idea how to project where a 12-0 UConn team would be ranked by the prestigious minds of the AP and Coaches’ Poll or CFP Selection Committee. The Huskies would need to be one of the seven highest-ranked teams in the field after the five highest-ranked conference winners receive their auto-bid. They need the glut of 10-2/9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams to fall out of contention with bad losses and for other G5 contenders to subside.

We already have some hopium from the early Week 1 results with Boise State losing to USF…