Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Milwaukee Brewers return home for a quick three-game homestand against the Philadelphia Phillies during this holiday week, as we’ll get to see yet another matchup of division leaders. The Brewers continue to set the pace atop MLB’s standings, with an 85-53 record entering September, a comfortable 6.5 games up on the Cubs in the NL Central. The Phillies are also 6.5 games ahead in the NL East (pending Sunday night’s results), as they sit at 79-57, good for the No. 2 seed in the NL to this point.

With Jackson Chourio back on the field, the Brewers’ injured list includes pitchers Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson, Grant Anderson, and DL Hall, while the only position players still shelved are former Phillie Rhys Hoskins and shortstop Joey Ortiz. Ortiz is expected to return this series, while the others (with the exception of Henderson) are expected to return before the end of the season.

The Phillies’ injured list is far shorter, with just Zack Wheeler and Jordan Romano on the shelf. Romano’s return is TBD, as he just went on the IL last week with a finger injury, while Wheeler had some blood clotting in his right arm, resulting in a surgery that will keep him out until next season.

The Brewers’ offense is led by Christian Yelich (27 HRs), Jackson Chourio (18 HRs), and William Contreras (17 HRs) in terms of power, while Brice Turang (16 HRs) has flashed his power recently while hitting a solid .287/.352/.435 for the season. Outfielder Sal Frelick has also been solid offensively, while Caleb Durbin, the suddenly cold Andrew Vaughn, Isaac Collins, Andruw Monasterio, Blake Perkins, Danny Jansen, and Anthony Siegler round out the regulars. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .259/.332/.409 (.741 OPS ranks 10th), with 149 homers (19th), 703 runs scored (second), and 141 steals (second).

The big boppers Kyle Schwarber (49 homers, 119 RBIs) and Bryce Harper (22 HRs, 63 RBIs) lead the top of the Philadelphia batting order, with Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott rounding out the regulars. Deadline acquisition Harrison Bader is also heavily in the mix, while Max Kepler, Weston Wilson, Edmundo Sosa, and Rafael Marchán round out the squad. As a team, the Phillies are hitting .257/.327/.423 (.750 OPS ranks sixth), with 169 homers (10th), 649 runs scored (10th), and 112 steals (tied for eighth).

Abner Uribe continues to lead Milwaukee’s bullpen, with a 1.65 ERA and 79 strikeouts across 65 1/3 innings this year as he’s now serving as the closer with Trevor Megill out. Shelby Miller, Jared Koenig, Nick Mears, Grant Anderson, and Aaron Ashby also often get high-leverage innings, while Rob Zastryzny serves as a bridge. Tobias Myers has moved into a long-relief role. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.60 team ERA (second), including a 3.48 starter ERA (second) and a 3.76 reliever ERA (10th). They’ve struck out 1,204 batters (sixth) over 1,228 2/3 innings.

Newly acquired Jhoan Duran, formerly of the Twins, serves as Philadelphia’s closer, with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks also featured heavily. José Alvarado, 40-year-old David Robertson, Daniel Robert, and Lou Trivino round out the bullpen. As a staff, the Phillies have a 3.81 team ERA (eighth), including a 3.52 starter ERA (third) and a 4.35 reliever ERA (22nd). They’ve struck out 1,249 batters (second) over 1,210 2/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Monday, September 1 @ 3:10 p.m.: Jacob Misiorowski (4.33 ERA, 3.14 FIP) vs. Taijuan Walker (3.63 ERA, 4.66 FIP)

If you’ll recall, when Misiorowski was selected to the NL All-Star roster as a replacement earlier this year, much of the ire directed at a rookie who had made just a few starts came from this same Phillies team. Well, we’ll see if he can prove the doubters wrong here. He’s certainly cooled a bit since his return from injury, but through 10 career starts, he has a 4.33 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 65 strikeouts over 43 2/3 innings. He went five innings against the D-backs in his last start, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk while striking out 10 in a solid bounce-back outing. The flamethrowing righty has never started against the Phillies.

Walker, now in his 13th MLB season, is in his third year with the Phillies. He’s been much better than last year, bouncing back from a 7.10 ERA and -1.6 bWAR to turn in a 3.63 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 1.7 bWAR with 73 strikeouts over 101 2/3 innings this season. He hasn’t looked great in his last few starts, however, taking a pair of losses as he’s allowed nine runs over 16 2/3 innings with 11 strikeouts against the Nationals (x2) and Mets. In three career appearances against Milwaukee, Walker is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 16 innings.

Wednesday, September 3 @ 6:40 p.m.: Jose Quintana (3.69 ERA, 4.85 FIP) vs. Aaron Nola (6.47 ERA, 5.03 FIP)

Quintana has been a serviceable arm for the Brewers this season, making 21 starts with a 3.69 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 77 strikeouts across 114 2/3 innings. The former All-Star had a short start against the D-backs in his last outing, as Arizona got to him early with six runs on five hits and four walks over just 3 2/3 innings in a 6-4 loss for Milwaukee. Quintana has made 13 career starts against Philadelphia, with a 1-2 record, 3.53 ERA, and 78 strikeouts over 71 1/3 innings. That includes a solid five-inning outing earlier this season, as he allowed two runs and struck out three in a no-decision.

Nola, who has received Cy Young votes in four separate seasons during his career, has turned in the worst season yet in year 11 with Philadelphia, as he sports a rough 6.47 ERA, 5.03 FIP, and 66 strikeouts over 64 innings. After four consecutive seasons of flirting with 200 strikeouts and 200 innings, it’s been a rough season for the 32-year-old righty. He went six frames against the Braves in his last start, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts. In 14 career starts against Milwaukee, Nola is 7-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 95 strikeouts over 85 1/3 innings.

Thursday, September 4 @ 3:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.58 ERA, 3.60 FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (3.02 ERA, 3.04 FIP)

Not much more can be said about Peralta, who can be fun to watch just as much as he can be frustrating to watch. He’s coming off a fantastic month of August, though, as he allowed just one earned run over 28 innings (0.32 ERA) with 34 strikeouts, with a perfect 4-0 record. For the season, Peralta has a 2.58 ERA and 168 strikeouts over 153 2/3 innings, as he’s vying for a third consecutive season with 200 strikeouts. He went six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in his last start, allowing just one hit, one walk, and hitting a batter while striking out eight. In seven career appearances (six starts) against Philadelphia, Peralta is 0-2 with a 3.64 ERA and 45 strikeouts over 29 2/3 innings.

As good as Peralta has been, Suárez has been arguably better, at least by some of the advanced metrics. Over 21 starts this season, Suárez has a 10-6 record with a 3.02 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and 124 strikeouts across 131 innings. The 2024 All-Star went five innings in his last start, allowing just one run as he managed to scatter 10 hits and a walk with two strikeouts against the Braves. In five career starts against Milwaukee, Suárez is 0-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 26 2/3 innings. That includes a six-inning outing against the Crew earlier this season, as he allowed two runs (one earned) with two strikeouts in a no-decision.

How to Watch

Monday, September 1: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Wednesday, September 3: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Thursday, September 4: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

The Brewers have been simply fantastic against their fellow division leaders, as they’ve absolutely proven they’re a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. I’ll take them to eke out another series win here in Milwaukee.