My Complicated Feelings About Framber Valdez

Few teams can match what the Astros have accomplished concerning pitching development. This organization has shown a knack for churning out quality arms seemingly out of nowhere. While the front office and coaching staff certainly deserve credit for identifying successful tweaks with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, their most impressive work lies in developing unheralded pitchers into legitimate contributors. Framber Valdez, for example, is one of the best pitchers developed by this team in its history. They probably don’t have a World Series championship in 2022 without him.

The left-hander is also most likely the next star to leave for more money elsewhere. I mean, the handwriting in pencil has long been on the wall, and it’ll soon be in permanent marker. Trust me, as I know something about drawings on the walls with pencils and permanent markers, thanks to my kids. Someone is going to pay Valdez in the offseason, possibly to the tune of $150 to $200 million. But make no mistake, it won’t be Jim Crane signing those checks. A new team will be on the hook for that contract, no matter how it turns out.

Usually, I would bemoan the fact that the Astros aren’t resigning a pitcher with a career 3.38 ERA, averaging roughly 190 innings per season. Replacing that kind of volume, especially in an age where arm injuries are more rampant than before, is a tall task for Dana Brown. Frankly, even if AJ Blubaugh and Miguel Ullola prove ready to contribute next season, I don’t see any internal options who can readily replace Valdez. His overall impact on the organization since assuming a full-time starter role in 2020 can’t be overstated. But I think both sides — at least from my outside vantage point with absolutely no inside knowledge — appear ready to move on. While it is shortsighted to hold recent results too much against Valdez compared to his overall track record, I don’t think his performance since the start of August (6.71 ERA, 4.67 FIP), in the midst of a close division race, has endeared him to many.

Ironically, Valdez may have a point about the team’s defense letting him down, although his methods for addressing it likely did more harm than good. But his overall results, even accounting for any defensive miscues, still leave much to be desired at this point in the season. Strikeouts are down, for example. He hasn’t pitched well in months. The stuff that Valdez can control, quite frankly, he hasn’t.

Looking ahead, we are most probably watching Valdez’s last starts with the Astros. He has likely started his last game at Daikin Park, especially if this team doesn’t qualify for the postseason. It is a shame that his tenure with the organization is concluding in this manner. Again, he started a World Series clinching game at home. He has a legacy worth remembering within franchise lore. But like many relationships, there are complexities involved. Sometimes, moving on is appropriate. I think he and the organization are near that point.