Recent history bodes well for Louisville basketball in Year 2 under Pat Kelsey. Here's why

Louisville basketball is garnering Final Four hype entering Year 2 of the Pat Kelsey era.

Recent history suggests the Cardinals could go even further.

Every national championship game since 2022 has featured at least one program (five of the eight total participants) that lost in the first round of the preceding NCAA Tournament. Two of those programs cut down the net, Florida in 2025 and UConn in 2023; the three runners-up were Purdue in 2024, San Diego State in 2023 and North Carolina in 2022.

U of L, of course, suffered a lopsided loss to Creighton in an 8-9 matchup at Rupp Arena to kick off the round of 64 this past season. After falling to 0-5 in March Madness, Kelsey told reporters he had "all the confidence in the world" that he and his staff would "put a great team together that's going to compete for a championship" in 2025-26.

A couple of weeks and three NCAA transfer portal additions later, the Cards were third in ESPN's first top 25 of the offseason. As of Sept. 2, they were seventh — still higher than any other program coming off a loss in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. In theory, that makes them the favorite to keep this streak of programs going from an early exit to the national title game alive.

Can Louisville do it? No two special seasons are built exactly the same, but there are lessons to learn from the five teams that have pulled off this feat over the past four years:

Continuity is crucial

KenPom.com has a continuity metric; the website's founder, Ken Pomeroy, says it reflects the percentage of a team's minutes that are used by the same player from one season to another. Louisville, for example, had 0.1% continuity in Year 1 of the Kelsey era after the coach built his inaugural roster from scratch.

In this era of unprecedented player movement, it should come as no surprise that four of the five programs that reached the national championship game after losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament the previous year benefited from a boost in continuity — returning, on average, 60.8% of their minutes:

• Florida: from 24.7% in 2023-24 to 54.1% in 2024-25
• Purdue: from 37.3% in 2022-23 to 69.2% in 2023-24
• San Diego State: from 57.4% in 2021-22 to 61% in 2022-23
• North Carolina: from 47% in 2020-21 to 58.9% in 2021-22

UConn was the outlier, going from 73.9% continuity in 2021-22 to 33.2% in 2022-23. And yet, the Huskies' best player during the first of their back-to-back title runs was a returner: junior center Adama Sanogo.

Obviously, it's not just about how many guys stick around. The talent has to be there:

• Walter Clayton Jr. blossomed into an All-American, and Alex Condon emerged as one of the best big men in the SEC upon returning for a second season with Todd Golden at Florida.
• Matt Painter brought back reigning Naismith Player of the Year Zach Edey and most of the supporting cast of a team that earned Purdue its first No. 1 seed since 1996 after the Boilermakers' historic upset at the hands of No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson.
• Lamont Butler was one of four San Diego State returners who started 35-plus games for Brian Dutcher during the Aztecs' dream season.
• Hubert Davis inherited a trio of young stars from Hall of Famer Roy Williams' final North Carolina roster: Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and Caleb Love.

Louisville has nowhere to go but up continuity-wise in Year 2 of the Kelsey era. But two of the coach's five returners redshirted last season (Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers), and another was sidelined by a torn anterior cruciate ligament only seven games in (Kasean Pryor). Fortunately for the Cards, their nonconference schedule features no shortage of tough matchups — what better way to cultivate chemistry?

So, too, are impact transfers

None of the five programs we're examining had to hit the portal particularly hard during the offseasons between their first-round exits and their trips to the national championship game. They combined to bring in only 10 new transfers; Florida and UConn led the way with three apiece in 2024-25 and 2022-23, respectively.

In most cases, however, the players made an immediate impact on their new teams.

Two of the Gators' transfers, Alijah Martin (Florida Atlantic) and Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State), were mainstays in Golden's title-worthy rotation. Ditto for Dan Hurley's additions ahead of the Huskies' first championship run since 2014, Tristen Newton (East Carolina), Joey Calcaterra (San Diego) and Hassan Diarra (Texas A&M). Lance Jones (Southern Illinois) carved out a big role for himself at Purdue; Darrion Trammell (Seattle) was a key cog for San Diego State; and Brady Manek (Oklahoma) delivered one massive postseason performance after another for North Carolina.

Kelsey took a similar approach to building his 2025-26 team in the portal, loading up Louisville's backcourt with a couple of seniors, Ryan Conwell (Xavier) and Isaac McKneely (Virginia), and a sophomore, Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State), to support Rodgers and five-star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. — the 29th McDonald's All-American in program history. International big men Sananda Fru and Evangelos "Vangelis" Zougris might as well be considered Division I transfers, too; because they've both spent four years competing against grown men in top-flight professional leagues.

The Cards need productive seasons from all of these veteran newcomers if they're going to be one of the last two teams standing next spring.

Do you need a deep rotation?

One of the biggest questions surrounding Louisville entering 2025-26 is: How will Kelsey divvy up minutes with a roster chock-full of talent?

During the coach's winningest season to date, a 31-4 run at Charleston in 2022-23, he had nine players with minute shares of 37.8% or higher. The following year, he had 10 playing 25% or more of the Cougars' available minutes. Could he sustain an even bigger rotation in Year 2 with the Cards? If he does, it'll go against the trend.

None of the five programs that reached the national championship game a year removed from losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament had 10 players with minute shares of 25% or higher. UConn and San Diego State had nine; Florida and Purdue had seven; and North Carolina had six.

That said, only eight players across the five teams shouldered 75% or more of their squad's available minutes. Half of those players were part of the Tar Heels' short rotation:

• Florida: Clayton (79.4%), Will Richard (79.2%)
• Purdue: Braden Smith (84.2%), Edey (79.2%)
• North Carolina: Love (84.4%), Davis (83.9%), Bacot (78.4%), Manek (75.4%)

It's also worth mentioning that, between all of these teams, only three freshmen had minute shares of 25% or higher; because U of L should have one in Brown — a projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft:

• Purdue: Camden Heide (30.8%)
• UConn: Alex Karaban (72.2%), Donovan Clingan (32.6%)

Kelsey's 2025-26 roster features four players who are coming off seasons at the Division I level in which they accounted for at least 80% of their team's available minutes: McKneely (85.9%), Wooley (85.1%), J'Vonne Hadley (82.3%) and Conwell (81.8%). With so many weapons at his disposal, it'll be up to the coach to dial up the right combinations at the right times; and his players must be the most efficient versions of themselves when their numbers are called.

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball: History bodes well for Pat Kelsey in 2025-26