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by the Diamondbacks!

Background.

As a fan, the Diamondbacks have ignited my optimism that the Diamondbacks will reach the playoffs.

Strangely, comparing the Diamondbacks and the Mets (who lead the race for the NL’s third Wild Card berth), the odds of reaching the playoffs show that from May onward, the Mets were much more likely to reach the playoffs. The gap never narrowed by a significant amount until after the Mets lost on Sunday. [Part of that change was due to the Reds are having a good run.] After that loss the Mets had eight times the chances as the Diamondbacks. The following graph overlays the teams’ odds provided by FanGraphs.

A different way to compare the teams is by comparing wins and number of games played. It shows a spectacular run, at two points (with 152 games played and with 156 games played) the gap between the teams narrowed to 1-win. That 1-win gap is consistent with my optimism. The following graphs shows a different way to compare the teams. It highlights in red a gap of 2 wins, at which point either team could reach the playoffs.

A two wins gap (or less) is contending, even with only 10 games left in the season. Think about ten games. A win-loss record of 5-5 is very possible (perhaps except for the Dodgers vs the Rockies). A team making a spectacular run has a real possibility of winning one extra game, while the team on the other end of the gap has a real possibility of losing one extra game; win-loss records of 6-4 vs 4-6 would close the gap and tie-brakers would decide the playoff bound team.

The Different Diamondbacks.

At the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks made very significant changes in their roster. It was a different team on 1 August. And the coaching expectations changed.

The Diamondbacks made a spectacular run.

Let’s look at the win-loss record starting 1 August, when the Diamondbacks made changes.

In games from 1 August through 18 September, the Diamondbacks won 26 games, for 59.1% wins. That compares very well to the Mets, who won 17 games (38.6% wins).

Clearly, the Diamondbacks made a spectacular run for two reasons:

59.1% wins
Better win % than the Mets (59.1% vs 38.6%).

What explains their spectacular run?

On 17 September, Mike Hazen said the following about the team after the trade deadline:

“The way we are playing baseball now is a cleaner [especially defensively], faster version of what we were….That version of the team is a better brand of baseball, maybe one that is better suited to our skillset.”

…This lineup, while it’s lost considerable power, for sure, we took a 50-home-run hitter out of it, among others, what’s been replaced is contact and speed. I think that adds a different element and gives defenders more things to have to worry about. I think that’s what this offense does…

“They’ve always worked extremely hard. It’s one of the calling cards that Torey has, and his coaches have. [After the trade deadline] It’s the same level of work and its impressive. … The brand of baseball has changed. What we expect of them has changed.”

“As you know, once some level of belief starts setting in, I think that’s also a powerful thing. I think that’s also happening.”

On 10 September, Mike Hazen said: “Part of what I told those guys is, ‘Don’t come in next year and say that you didn’t have an opportunity to show us what you could do to prevent us from [acquiring] people [in the offseason] on top of you,…’”

My thoughts follow:

The power of a great manager. To reinforce what Mike Hazen said: Torey Lovullo motivates his players to work extremely hard. My view is that Torey Lovullo is a top-5 manager in the MLB. I have written positive (well deserved) articles about him.

The power of optimism. My view is optimism is similar to a belief that the players can perform well and win baseball games. When talented players are traded away, when published odds are low of reaching the playoffs, the players can benefit from a mindset of optimism. Each instance of excellent performance can build that optimism into belief in winning.

The power of a sense of opportunity/urgency. To reinforce what Mike Hazen said, for some players this is a rare opportunity to play in the Majors sooner than expected. It’s very likely that these players strongly feel a sense of urgency to perform well. Another player had a different reason. After a dissappointing half season, about to become a free agent, Zac Gallen urgently needed to show excellent performance. That sense of urgency can be powerful.

The power of unpredictability. There is more unpredictability for Diamondbacks newly called up to the Majors, who possibly have been developing new weapons in the minors. There is more unpredictability caused by the Diamondbacks’ new emphasis on contact and speed. Other teams will experience the challenge of unpredictability. That can be powerful for the Diamondbacks.

What happened to pause the run?

In the 11th inning, the Diamondbacks lost the third game of the series against the Giants. Then, the Diamondbacks lost the first game of the series against the Phillies. [After that pause, the run continued!]

My view is that their success caused the team’s players to switch from a mindset of playing to win into a mindset of playing not to lose. That applied at the plate, on the mound, and in the field.

At the plate. Combining the two losses, the Diamondbacks batters were 0 for 14 with runners in scoring position, and they left 16 baserunners on base. If the batters were playing to win, those numbers would likely be better.

On the mound. In the 11th inning against the Giants, two misplays by position players and a mound visit caused the Diamondbacks pitcher (John Curtis), who had recently seen much success, to pitch too cautiously. After the passed ball, seven of his ten pitches crossed the plate outside the strike zone. Each of the two run-scoring hits crossed the plate outside the strike zone (based on replaying the game video). My view is a pitcher going for a win would have more pitches crossing the plate in the strike zone (a skill called controlling the strike zone).

In the field. A high fly to left field that was not caught by three fielders who might have caught it. It resulted in the bases loaded. The video showed that Perdomo started the farthest from where the ball landed. Yet, he was the player who attempted to catch the ball. McCarthy, who was playing shallow left field, was closest and my view he had the best chance to catch the ball. My view is that instead of playing to win (catch the ball) he played to backup the play.

Torey Lovullo said that in loss to the Phillies, after starting the game well, his players went into a different mindset. His thoughts follow:

“We just kind of went into a different mindset, where the name of the game was execution, and we just were not executing at a high level in certain areas, at certain times. You know, runners in scoring position [0 for 6 with RISP], I feel like we gave a couple of at-bats away. We made a big error to start the eighth inning. I think we were misfiring some pitches, poor pitch sequencing, perhaps some mistakes. And this is a team [the Phillies], when you do something like that, they can put up those big points.” — Torey Lovullo

Why did the run continue?

“We’ve never shutdown. We never stopped believing in one another. We never stopped staying connected. And I’ve always said it, right? When you’re connected you’re capable of doing a lot of special things and you are dangerous.” — Torey Lovullo, postgame on 21 September.

Summary.

Although graphs of playoffs odds show nothing of note, the Diamondbacks are making a spectacular run. The Diamondbacks were a different team from 1 August onward. Their different team had 59.1% wins in games through 18 September.

The Diamondbacks are competing with the Mets for the third Wild-Card in the NL. From 1 August through 18 September, the Diamondbacks had a better percentage of wins (59.1% vs 38.6%).

With ten games left in the season the gap between the Diamondbacks and the Mets was better than the all-important two-win gap.

What explains their spectacular run?