How does Fred VanVleet's torn ACL affect the OKC Thunder?

The Western Conference picture received a major shakeup only a week before teams kick off their training camps. The Houston Rockets have lost Fred VanVleet for most — if not all — of the 2025-26 season with a torn ACL he sustained.

Just a brutal blow. No way around it. VanVleet has helped the Rockets turn around from a rebuild to a championship contender. More importantly, Houston loses its starting point guard on a roster that doesn't have a traditional alternative option.

While the Oklahoma City Thunder are viewed as the consensus favorite to win the NBA championship, the Rockets were seen as one of the more popular choices for a team that could dethrone the reigning champions. Kevin Durant's arrival provided one of the best defenses with one of the greatest scorers of all time. The 36-year-old has proven he can still give you an efficient 25-plus points.

Now, with VanVleet out, they lose one of their four best players for the season. That could lead to more primary ball-handler opportunities for Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, but it severely dips their upset chances against the Thunder in a hypothetical playoff series.

The Rockets were already fighting an uphill battle. The Thunder had one of the greatest seasons last year. They had a historic 68-14 regular-season record and won the Larry O'Brien trophy. Bringing back mostly the same roster, Houston would've needed its best punch and then some to flirt with an upset. Now, that's out the window.

VanVleet would've provided the Rockets with a true ball-handler. Looking at the rest of the Rockets' roster, nobody else can run the offense in a traditional sense. Maybe Thompson can take that leap, but there will certainly be growing pains they can't afford against the Thunder.

Now, the Thunder match up even more favorably against a non-VanVleet Rockets. The best way to attack OKC's lockdown perimeter defense is by having multiple ball-handlers who can get their own bucket. That puts pressure on their defenders to stay honest.

The opposite side of the scale should cause the Thunder to salivate. Imagine Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace pressuring whoever has the ball on the Rockets. Mix in some poor ball security, and you have a recipe for a signature OKC avalanche run that puts games away in the second half by forcing turnover after turnover.

VanVleet's absence is a gut punch for the Rockets. Durant should help them be a respectable Western Conference foe, but their odds to pull off a Herculean upset over the Thunder have been zapped. An old sports adage goes that you need as much luck as talent to succeed. Houston is already at a disadvantage with the former before Opening Night even played out.

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: How does Fred VanVleet's torn ACL affect the OKC Thunder?