Matt Russell runs through NFL survivor pool Week 4 strategy and a few games to target.
If all other elements of sports betting were just and fair, things like bad beats would even out in the same way that Week 3’s top selection of the Seahawks — cruising past the Saints — made up for the mega-sweat caused by our Week 2 top selection, the Cowboys.
Alternative options — the Buccaneers and Bills — got their own scare, but, while the Falcons got shut out by the Panthers, you’ll note that we didn’t have the Packers (the second most-likely winner by money-line odds) on our list last week, sniffing out a possible upset that tripped up many.
Using Circa Sports’ Survivor contest numbers as an estimate, over 10% were eliminated with Green Bay, and 7% more with Atlanta. For many of this week’s top candidates, the first three games of the season have actually offered up more questions than answers, so it may be time to make another deal with the Survivor devil, who looms over ones’ shoulder each week.
Contest sizes can vary. From the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that. However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.
Week 4 moneylines
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams, and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Ravens: 20.3
Bills: 20.3
Eagles: 18.9
Packers: 17.6
Lions: 17.6
Rams: 16.7
Chargers: 16.7
Chiefs: 16.2
Broncos: 14.9
Vikings: 14.9
Bucs: 14.9
49ers: 14.9
Steelers: 13.5
Cardinals: 13.5
Seahawks: 13.5
Colts: 13.5
Commanders: 13.5
Texans: 12.2
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 4 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.
Week 4’s top choices
As we look at the best options for Week 4 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from the pick and previous ones.
Team(s) you’ve most likely used:
Broncos (most popular selection Week 1)
Cardinals, Ravens, Cowboys
Seahawks, Bills, Buccaneers
The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those future matchups).
1. Bills (91.7%) over Saints
No one has more respect for the unpredictable, “any given Sunday” nature of the NFL than I do, but ...
If you pick the Bills this week, you win. That’s it. You just move on to Week 5.
However, as we try to remind you each week, it’s not whether you move on, it’s what you’re giving up. This week you’re making a handshake deal by taking the Bills and what should be a sweat-free Sunday. In exchange, you’re going to have the sweat of your life very soon. That’s just how it works.
Things don’t get real in Survivor until there’s a big upset or two, which sends even the surviving entrants running scared in the streets, so we’re likely to see an extreme percentage of entrants willing to make that deal.
What you’re giving up:
Week 5 vs. Patriots (BUF -12)
Week 8 at Panthers (BUF -12.5)
Week 14 vs. Bengals (BUF -12)
Week 18 vs. Jets (BUF -13.5)
The next-best chance to use the Bills is literally next week — as odd as it is that you would be using them against a team who (spoiler alert) shows up later on this list. Plus, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Joe Burrow finds his way back for Week 14, which would drop that point spread considerably.
Saving the Bills for Week 18 is dicey, since their Week 1 win over the Ravens made it even more likely that they won’t need to effort victory that week.
2. Texans (75.4%) over Titans
Oh, good, an 0-3 team is on the list, and No. 2 to boot!
It’s hard to believe, but the winless Texans are actually the strategically correct pick this week.
Since we make our decisions based on the information the betting market provides and not the standings, we’re relying on the idea that Houston has almost the same chance for a win as those below on the list. Even if they haven’t actually won a game, after three close calls.
At least they should be desperate!
What you’re giving up:
Week 10 vs. Jaguars (HOU -2.5)
Week 16 vs. Raiders (HOU -4.5)
The Titans are dreadful, so you’re not going to get a better opponent for the Texans, who are just barely on our list of the top 18 teams.
It’s just a matter of time before Houston gets its act together, so it may be more about when to pick them. However, with so many having already used Buffalo in Week 3, and here in Week 4, still having the Bills in your pocket gives you the best chance to win going forward.
3. Lions (80.9%) over Browns
The Lions just walked out of Baltimore with a win over the Ravens and are roughly 80% to beat the Browns this week, so how could they be considered dicey?
It’s a short week for Detroit, and we have to be at least aware of how much that went into Monday night’s game.
What you’re giving up:
Week 12 vs. Giants (DET -10)
Week 14 vs. Cowboys (DET -9)
Week 16 vs. Steelers (DET -6)
Week 12 sticks out like a sore thumb. Especially if the 49ers (hosting the Panthers on Monday night that week) are going to continue to lose one key player to injury per week. Of course, the Lions will be coming off another big prime-time road trip, this time to Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football, so the situation may be similar.
4. Broncos (76.8%) over Bengals
This might be the first instance of a key injury changing the landscape of the Survivor Contest season, as the Broncos wouldn’t have otherwise been viable here, but Burrow’s injury sends their win probability up among the highest of the week. Denver was our No. 1 selection in Week 1, with around a 50% selection rate. Obviously, if you used them there, you’re not able to do so again.
What you’re giving up:
Week 6 vs. Jets (DEN -6, in London)
Week 7 vs. Giants (DEN -8)
Week 10 vs. Raiders (DEN -7)
If you are able to use Denver again, it may not be the most optimal time to do so anyway, as there’s a trio of games where they should be right around the same win probability.
5. Patriots (69.0%) over Panthers
Our fifth spot could go to the Chargers, but a road trip a week after a third divisional game, is not a great spot to get the best out of a team. Meanwhile, the Giants are turning to Jaxson Dart, and if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, the team is looking forward to the breath of fresh air at quarterback.
It could also be the Packers in this spot, but they’re also on the road, and there’s three home games where Green Bay will be favored by this much, or more.
That leaves the Patriots, who just turned the ball over five times in a loss to the Steelers — but if there’s a bright side, New England likely beats Pittsburgh if they “only” lose the turnover margin by three.
What you’re giving up:
Week 8 vs. Browns (NE -3)
Week 11 vs. Jets (NE -4.5)
Week 13 vs. Giants (NE -4.5)
Like the Texans, the Patriots have some things that need some serious cleaning up, but they also don’t have the pedigree and expectation of a playoff contender. With a handful of similar options later in the season, let’s wait until later in the season, where they have a pair of chances to take on a New York team at home.
While part of creating your own Survivor path is zagging while others are zigging, picking which weeks you want to be at the edge of your seat is part of the equation as well.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Category: General Sports
