Tua Tagovailoa hasn't seemed like himself. Is it physical? It it mental? What's going on with the Dolphins' $53M QB?
MIAMI GARDENS — Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross explained in March of 2019 why the team moved on from quarterback Ryan Tannehill after seven seasons.
“I love Ryan," Ross said, chatting with local reporters at an outdoor table in Phoenix, Arizona. "But you’re right, how many years? It was time to move on.”
This is Tua Tagovailoa's sixth season as Dolphins quarterback. Ross hasn't spoken with sports reporters in years. But he must be wondering if Tagovailoa will be his quarterback for a seventh.
Tagovailoa, 27, has led the NFL in completion percentage, passing yards and passer rating. But the first three games of this season have gone so poorly that Tua is facing more criticism, blame and skepticism than ever before.
"I haven’t played anywhere near the standard that I’ve played in years past," Tua said before his 0-3 Dolphins faced the 0-3 Jets on "Monday Night Football."
"Knowing the standard that I can play to. It starts with me."
More than six years ago, Ross, the owner, spoke about what he wanted in the next Miami quarterback. A leader, of course — an intelligent leader and winner.
"A sturdy ballplayer that can withstand a lot of hits," Ross added. "Because that’s what this game is about."
Herein lies a rub.
Tua is struggling to make throws he made at Alabama and at times made earlier in his career at Miami.
If Tua's career — he was the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft — ever flames out quickly, it seems highly probable it will be because his body let him down.
Tua Tagovailoa's concerning injury history
Tagovailoa started all 17 games in 2023.
But in 2021, 2022 and 2024, Tua was diagnosed with three concussions as well as injuries to a hip, middle finger, thumb and ribs.
Tua's 2022 season ended with a concussion.
Tua acknowledged he considered — if even briefly — retirement.
Tua's 2024 season ended with a hip injury.
The Dolphins, in need of salary cap space, chose not to restructure Tagovailoa's contract this offseason. That would have guaranteed more money to the quarterback, and it's certainly possible the two facts are connected.
Tagovailoa's college career at Alabama ended with a catastrophic hip injury. At the time, he said he did not believe his hip would ever be the same, though he believed he still could be an effective NFL quarterback.
"There’s, like metal in here, you know?" he said. "I lose some (hip) rotation inward."
Asked before Week 4 of this season if he ever looks back at Alabama highlights or thinks about how he's different now, Tua specifically referred to running.
"Some of the surgeries that I’ve had, I can kind of feel some of the residuals within my ankles," Tua said. "I was running a little different when I was at Alabama, it’s just not the same. I think that’s normal given the surgeries and everything that comes with the sport.”
The Dolphins were clearly comfortable with pre-draft medical opinions, and they selected Tua one pick ahead of Justin Herbert of the Chargers.
Herbert is 6-foot-6, 236 pounds.
Tua is 6-foot-1, 225 pounds.
Before the draft, NFL reporter Albert Breer said Miami legend and current Dolphins executive Dan Marino was a fan of Herbert.
The decision by general manager Chris Grier to select Tua instead of Herbert will be forever scrutinized.
The Dolphins selected Tua ahead of Herbert because of his accuracy, anticipation and big-time play-making track record at Alabama.
They also knew the organization had once passed on Drew Brees, the smallish Hall of Famer who did not pass a shoulder exam when Nick Saban wanted to sign him.
Saban endorsed Tua, of course, while warning that Tua was going to need to protect himself in the pros. Easier said than done.
"Drew Brees is the exception," Colin Cowherd of Fox Sports said recently. "He is the outlier. When I watched Tua and Josh Allen (in Week 3), I always think the same thing, 'Yeah, I'm gonna take the bigger, stronger guy.' Tua is smaller, doesn't have a big arm. Don't want him in windy weather. You gotta protect him. Size matters in all sports. I think your quarterbacks have to be about 6-2 and up."
Tagovailoa has made a promise to coach Mike McDaniel, Grier and his teammates to protect his health in all ways possible in 2025.
But some have wondered if it's made him a more hesitant player.
'He's lost his superpower'
"I think with Tua, it looks like he's lost his superpower," Dan Orlovsky of ESPN said recently. "Tua's superpower has always been cut the ball loose before you should cut the ball loose. No one has seen defenses faster. I've watched Tua in the last two weeks. And if feels like he's waiting for guys to get open."
McDaniel said before the critical Jets contest that Tua has faced some "challenges" and that Tua has successfully bypassed some potential turnovers.
But ...
"Throwing the football, he's capable," McDaniel said. "And there's opportunities that he needs to take advantage of."
Ryan Clark of ESPN does not believe Tua is a player who will take the franchise on his back and lead it to playoff wins. He cited Tagovailoa's statistics against the Bills.
"The problem is Tua Tagovailoa needs too much help," Clark said recently. "When you throw the football 34 times and you only amass 146 yards because you average 4.3 yards a throw, you ain't doing nothing. And then, we can't ask you to go above and beyond the X's and O's with your legs, because you're fragile.
"And this isn't a pile-on-Tua Tagovailoa session. This is what we see. ... And then you go to the other side and you see Josh Allen go above and beyond what (Bills offensive coordinator) Joe Brady calls, every time you need it. To win the football game. Those are the people you're playing."
It is true that Tagovailoa has not yet led Miami to a playoff victory.
It's also true that many AFC quarterback rivals compare favorably in the category of GWG (game-winning drives), which is defined by Pro Football Reference as an offensive scoring drive in the fourth quarter or overtime that puts the team ahead for the last time:
- Justin Herbert (1 every 4.8 starts, 17 total).
- Josh Allen (1 every 4.9 starts, 23 total).
- Patrick Mahomes (1 every 5.0 starts, 23 total).
- Tagovailoa (1 every 6.5 starts, 10 total).
- Lamar Jackson (1 every 8.0 starts, 12 total).
- Joe Burrow (1 every 7.9 starts, 9 total).
Nearly two years ago to the day, Tua led the Dolphins to 70 points in a defeat of the Broncos. It's not been nearly as good since.
It's early, but this year, Tua is 19th in passer rating, 29th in ESPN's QBR and 33rd in Pro Football Focus' passer rating.
”He knows for us to win, he needs to play well,” McDaniel said after Miami’s third straight loss to open this season.
Have defenses simply adjusted to McDaniel's scheme?
"You have to threaten people with the run, and you start to give different coverages, and then things open up," McDaniel said, suggesting all offenses, not just Miami's, are adjusting to defensive trends. "I think you have to walk before you run."
Is Tua, for some reason — physical, mental, who knows — just not himself?
"He just doesn't have it," former Dolphins tight end Joe Rose, a Dolphins game radio analyst, said recently. "He just doesn't have it down the field. And I just figured out Mike (McDaniel's) not gonna make him throw stuff that he just can't do. ... Chris (Grier) must know. Mike must know. Tua can't make all the throws you need to make for the weapons you have. You've got too much horsepower for that guy to drive. He can't drive the car. It's got too much horsepower. He can't handle it. Can't handle it."
What is Tua Tagovailoa's Dolphins future?
Tagovailoa has matured as a team leader. He has become a husband and a father.
Tua has a generally pleasant disposition, though a few times this season he's seemed annoyed or surprised at a line of questioning.
Tua notoriously insulates himself from social media and other chatter.
But he must know the critics are louder than ever, no?
“You don’t just will your way to be (elite), you either are or you aren’t," NBC football analyst Mike Florio said recently. "You hit your ceiling, by Year 6 you know who a guy is … with Tua, it’s squeezed. That’s it.”
Long-time South Florida journalist Dan LeBatard said recently: "Tua's the most polarizing (on the Dolphins) ... we haven't been able to accurately measure, 'what is this guy? Is he a franchise QB, or is he not a franchise QB?' "
It was the same conversation Miami had about Tannehill in the final years of his era.
In this case, Miami elected to give Tua a contract for 4 years, $212 million.
It has become, as one might expect, a major talking point.
Tua Tagovailoa's contract: $53.1 million a season
"Tua Tagovailoa is making more than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, Jayden Daniels," ESPN's Cam Newton recently said. "Am I pocket watching? No, no, no. I'm putting things into perspective here. What did Biggie say? Mo money, mo problems. In this case, it should be, more money, more expectations. ... You've got a Ferrari and a Lamborghini, that some quarterbacks wish they had."
Tua was asked about Cam bringing up the contract.
"Well anybody can play quarterback in this league then," Tua said. "I want to see anybody on the streets come and play quarterback. Cam (Newton) is doing his thing for sure, but I think it’s easier to be able to hold a clicker and talk about it that way or talk about what someone else is doing wrong when you’re not going out and having to do the same as them. I think it’s easy to do that, I think anybody can do that. I don’t think anybody can play quarterback.”
As for Newton's cars comparison, the Ferrari is Tyreek Hill. The Lamborghini could be Jaylen Waddle or De'Von Achane, to be honest. Tua has ideal weapons, just as Dan Marino once did.
But one must wonder if an inexperienced and injury-battered offensive line has shaken Tua's confidence.
“We knew the guy — he gets the ball out pretty quick,” former Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard said of Tagovailoa after he helped the Colts to a blowout win in the season opener. “And once we take away his first read, I feel like it’s panic mode after that. And it showed (Sunday). We took away his first read and he was trying to get rid of the ball real quick.”
Orlovsky, the ESPN analyst who has praised Tua for years, says the quarterback needs to go back to trusting his eyes and cutting it loose before his receiver is open.
McDaniel has been a staunch advocate for Tagovailoa from the moment he accepted the job. Even he has had a hard time defending Tua's early-season turnovers.
Are McDaniel and Tua entirely tied at the hip, as it might seem?
The Dolphins activated a soft salary cap "reset" before this season.
The Dolphins moving on from Tua after this season would signal a "major" reset.
To what tune? How about a $79.2 million dead cap hit?
We've seen the Broncos move on from Russell Wilson despite a colossal hit.
We've seen the Falcons keep highly-paid veteran Kirk Coustins around as a backup to a youngster — Michael Penix — they drafted.
The Dolphins are hoping Tagovailoa plays all 17 games in 2025. The Dolphins are hoping Tagovailoa turns his season and the team's season around, against some pretty big odds.
When Tua signed his extension, he said he understood the expectations and pressure that went along with it.
"Heavy is the crown," Tua said.
But nobody's been crowned in Miami Gardens yet.
Tannehill started 88 games for the Dolphins, but could not deliver a single playoff win.
Tagovailoa has started 68 games for the Dolphins, with a similar result.
Against the best opponents, in the biggest spots, there has been no breakthrough.
Since Tua was drafted, Miami is 7-11 in prime-time games, 5-11 under McDaniel. The Dolphins are hoping Tagovailoa shines on national television against the Jets on "Monday Night Football" and the team avoids an 0-4 start.
That would muffle the noise. For at least one week, anyway.
Monday's gameJets at Dolphins7:15 p.m., ESPN
Joe Schad is a journalist covering the Miami Dolphins and the NFL at The Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at [email protected] and follow him on Instagram and on X @schadjoe. Sign up for Joe's free weekly Dolphins Pulse Newsletter. Help support our work by subscribing today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is struggling. Is time running out for his legacy?
Category: Football
