Hawkeye Football: Iowa vs Indiana Game Preview

Last week, I called Iowa’s 47-7 drubbing of UMass dishonorable. It took a lot of consideration to use such a negative term, especially so soon after the honoring of a certainly noble man, Kirk Ferentz. I expect it comes as no surprise that I cannot find a word to amply describe Indiana’s win over Illinois last Saturday. A massacre doesn’t seem to capture the sheer brutality of it. Not just an upset, but an embarrassment. I had a conversation with my father Friday evening on the drive back to ASU (go Devils) wherein we discussed our expectations for the game. Specifically, I remember saying “I’m not sure Illinois is a team even Iowa can beat.”

Jinxed it again, didn’t I? Me and my big mouth…

This is the biggest challenge Iowa has faced so far, there’s no doubt about it at all. The #19 team in the country rarely upsets the #9. On the off chance it does happen, it’s usually due to a tipped field goal or a walk-off touchdown. Indiana beat Illinois by 63 points. Iowa has not scored more than 60 points in a game in exactly 7 years as of November 17th, with Iowa’s 63-0 victory over Illinois. Yes, you heard that right.

Iowa has not scored more than 60 points in a game since Nate Stanley’s junior year.

Grim.

But, as always, there are silver linings. Iowa is not out of this game. Far from it, actually. Anything can happen in Kinnick, that much is already proven. Iowa has taken down plenty of giants at home, and seemingly has the potential to do it again. Lest we forget the Michigan game from 2016, or the crowd favorite 55-24 victory over Ohio State, and not to mention the 34-6 drubbing against #17 Indiana in 2021. Still, the question remains:

How?

THE OFFENSE

Raise Hell and Praise Dale.

That was the best offensive performance from Iowa in years. That’s a fact, not an opinion. An Iowa offensive unit has never looked this coherent and this athletic since 2019. That might be a bit of a hyperbole, considering the 2019 squad had ISM and this has Sam Phillips. No offense to Sam Phillips. I love Sam Phillips. This game is not going to be a defensive, low-scoring game. That’s crystal clear. As much as Ferentz would probably like it to be, I’d expect both teams scoring north of 25 points, if not 30. In order to have any advantage over Indiana, Iowa needs to come out firing on offense immediately. It’s all gas, no brakes. All killer, no filler. With Gronowski coming off of his best performance as a Hawkeye and the receiving core rapidly improving, Iowa has a real shot at flipping the script and winning an offensive shootout against one of the best offensive minds in College football.

but…

Alright, who’s hurt now?

It’s Jaz.

Thankfully, Kamari Moulton has returned and performed well, rushing for 68 yards and touchdown. Still, with Williams still out and Jaz joining him, this RB room’s depth has been severely gashed. Nathan McNeil will get his first real in-game action beyond garbage time this season as he slots in at RB3 behind Moulton and Terrell Washington Jr. To be frank, Indiana’s defense leaves quite a bit to be desired, especially in pass defense, as the Hoosiers have currently given up the 8th most pass yards out of any team in the FBS. Without Jaz and considering Indiana boasts a top 25 rush defense, Iowa should be expected to lean heavily on the pass and RPO game, running the offense largely through Gronowski instead of the RB core. (It felt like blasphemy to write that, for the record).

And last but not least for the offense…

THE BENCH-O-METER – Current Status: Nate Stanley

Last Week’s requirements: N/A

Gronowski’s performance against Rutgers: 186yds passing, 55yds rushing, 3 rushing TDs.

Gronowski balled out, plain and simple. Even without a passing touchdown, Gronowski’s three rushing scores and lack of turnovers constituted an exceptional QB performance by Iowa standards. Despite a receiver core marred by injuries and a lack of chemistry, Gronowski has consistently improved from game to game, putting the Hawks in position to win three straight. Indiana presents themselves as the strongest team Gronowski has (in all likelihood) ever played in College, and even despite his apparent confidence, there are still a number of questions in the air.

Minimum Req. Stats v. Indiana – ~100yds passing, +20yds rushing, 2 All-Purpose TDs.

Gronowski is good, but this game will put his talent to the test. The most important thing for Gronowski should be to limit turnovers, as putting Indiana’s offense in scoring position is borderline suicidal. Give the Hoosiers an inch, they take a mile and a rivalry trophy. Limiting turnovers and consistently leading the offense on scoring drives should be the key to a win here.

THE DEFENSE

Just try and get some good film on tape, alright?

Iowa has a good defense. They do not have a good enough defense to stop Indiana’s offense reliably. Frankly, there aren’t many defenses in the country that can stop Indiana’s offense reliably. Gronowski has thrown for 3tds and 1 interception in 4 games. In that same span of time, Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 15tds and no interceptions. He’s also rushed for two scores, which pales in comparison to Gronowski’s 6, but that’s entirely irrelevant. This Indiana team is good. Very, very good. This offense is one of the best Iowa has played since we chose to start Spencer Petras against CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave. (Maybe not that good, but Indiana is pretty damn good). While I am hopeful that the defense can perform well against this team, I am not expecting a good performance. All we can really hope for here is a turnover or two on fumbles or tipped passes, and no injuries. Iowa should perform well against the run. Hopefully.

Keep your heads down x2

The injury bug has already crippled Iowa’s offense heavily, and it only continues to get worse. Bryce George, RVZ, Ostrenga, and now Jaz too have all been sidelined with injuries. If this team expects to stay competitive through the rest of the season, limiting injuries becomes absolutely imperative, especially on the defensive side of the ball. This defense is still good enough to provide a strong cushion for the offense, and has kept great offensive units like Iowa State and Rutgers on their toes. Losing key-starters to this defense could not only sell the game, but ultimately sell the season. I mean, what does an RVZ touchdown mean if TJ Hall goes down?

This is, by far, the greatest challenge Iowa has faced this season. I firmly believe that this Hoosiers squad would beat Iowa State 9 times out of 10, leaving Iowa’s status as a competitor in total jeopardy. While the mood of the Hawkeye fanbase has been seemingly chipper, and even considering the writer’s room here at BHGP being flooded by votes of confidence and long, drawn out conversation about stats and quality of competition, this one is far from assured. Iowa opens up as home dogs. More importantly, they open up as home dogs with something to prove. A win against Indiana means one-way ticket to the top 25, and even more importantly, hope to compete against USC, Oregon, and Penn State.

As always,

GO HAWKS!