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The Mets control their own destiny heading into the final three games of the MLB regular season.

Through 159 regular season baseball games, the Mets own a record of 82-77. Heading into their final series of the year—a three-game set against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Florida—the Mets hold the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League. If the season ended today, the Mets would be playing the Dodgers in the Wild Card round, starting on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium.

The season does not end today, however, so the Mets have some work to do. The good news for New York is that they control their own destiny as they try to hold off the Cincinnati Reds (81-78) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (80-79). The Mets hold a one-game advantage over Cincinnati and a two-game cushion over Arizona, but things are not so simple nowadays. With the expanded postseason, tiebreakers carry added significance. If you recall last year, the Mets finished tied with the Diamondbacks but were granted the final postseason spot because they won four of their seven games against Arizona.

Unfortunately for the Mets, they do not own the tiebreaker against either team this time around. If they finished in a tie with either team, the Mets would be left on the outside looking in. They lost four of six games to the Reds in their season series, which lost them the tiebreaker there. With the Diamondbacks, the season series ended in a 3-3 tie, which means they’d have to look at intradivision records. The Mets are 24-25 against the NL East, while the D’Backs are 26-23 vs. the NL West. The Mets could, theoretically, beat Arizona in the tiebreaker here by, say, sweeping the Marlins while the Diamondbacks lose their final series to San Diego. However, the Mets would then finish ahead of Arizona anyway, so this is hardly relevant here. All that is to say that the Mets cannot finish tied with either team and finish in playoff positioning, so they need to finish at least one game ahead of both teams.

The Mets, who have had exactly one (1) winning road trip all season, did well to take two of three from the playoff-bound Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. That positioned them well to be in a spot where they control their destiny after the Reds and Diamondbacks each lost two of three in their respective series to the Pirates and the Dodgers. Here’s how the Mets can secure their spot in the 2025 MLB postseason over the weekend, and the different scenarios that exist with each possibility.

Mets sweep the Marlins (3-0)

If this happens, the Mets are in! No complications here. The Reds and Diamondbacks would be unable to catch the Mets if they end their season with a sweep against their division rivals. The Mets would finish the year with an 85-77 record, four wins below where they finished their improbable 2024 campaign.

Mets win two out of three in Miami (2-1)

A series win is still optimal, but they’ll need some help to wrap up a spot. If the Mets win two games in Miami, Arizona cannot catch them, since their tragic number is two and they cannot afford two wins from New York. In this scenario, the only thing that would result in a Mets-less October is a Reds sweep of the Brewers. Milwaukee has very little to play for this week—they just need one win or one Philadelphia loss to secure the top spot in the National League playoff picture—but with a week off, they don’t really have to set up their rotation or rest their regulars. Don’t expect Milwaukee to go all out, but don’t expect them to lay down for the Reds, either. The Mets would finish the year with an 84-78 record should they win two of three in Miami.

Mets lose two out of three in Miami (1-2)

Here’s where things start to get dicey. A series loss doesn’t take the Mets out of the playoff picture, but it does take them out of the driver’s seat. In this scenario, they will have to hope the Reds lose their series to the Brewers as well. Additionally, this puts the Diamondbacks back in play for the Wild Card. Arizona is still a long shot, but a sweep against the Padres here would put the Diamondbacks ahead of the Mets. While I personally will not advocate for this reality, it would be fitting karmic retribution if the Diamondbacks were to finish tied with the Mets and get into the postseason over them due to the tiebreaker. Going 1-2 in Miami would result in an 83-79 record for the Mets, which isn’t important by itself, but would be the same record the 2006 Cardinals had when they won the World Series. I don’t need to remind anyone of the misery of that season, but wouldn’t it be fitting for the Mets to go on a run as an 83-win team? Although I would greatly prefer a less stressful path, personally.

Mets are swept in Miami (0-3)

Believe it or not, the Mets could get swept and still have a shot at the postseason (whether they deserve the spot in this scenario is a whole different discussion). This would be a fairly improbable, though not impossible, task, as New York would need a lot of help from Milwaukee and San Diego here. In this scenario, the Reds would just need one win to finish ahead of the Mets, but if they are swept, they would be out. Similarly, the D’Backs would need to win their series against the Padres, but if they lose two of three or got swept, the Mets would finish ahead of them. A sweep would send the Mets towards an 82-80 record, which matches the win total of the 1973 team that ended up winning the pennant. However, there’s a little less ‘Ya Gotta Believe!’ in this team’s path and a little more ‘Ya Gotta Be Kidding Me!’

Did you catch all that? Simple, right? The easiest way to think about it is that the Mets must simply match or exceed the number of wins the Reds get this weekend in Milwaukee. Additionally, if they win one game, anything other than a Diamondbacks sweep would be good news for New York. If you are prone to fretful scoreboard watching, here are the times to be mindful of this weekend: