What do the analytics say about punting on 4th down?
PHOENIX, AZ — The final week of the season delivered exactly what Diamondbacks fans craved: high-stakes, meaningful baseball against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.
Well, except the series win. Oh and we could’ve and should’ve won that second game too. Also, Diamondbacks fans probably didn’t crave an embarrassing blowout that allowed the Dodgers to clinch yet another NL West title a little too close to the Chase Field pool. We did get our minimum fair share of drunk Dodgers fans getting thrown out by Maricopa County’s finest though!
In the first two games of the three-game series, the D-backs showed some late-inning grit, executing a miraculous comeback in Game 1 before succumbing to the Dodgers’ power and depth in the final two contests. Now we find the team clinging to near-absent postseason hopes.
Game 1
In a season defined by relentless fight and even more relentless injuries, the Diamondbacks delivered one of the most critical and thrilling victories of the year Tuesday night. In front of a raucous, 42,000+ crowd at Chase Field, the D-backs came back from a 4-0 deficit to walk off the Los Angeles Dodgers, 5-4.
The win was monumental for the NL Wild Card race, bringing the D-backs into a tie with the Reds and just one game behind the Mets for the final spot.
Lovullo: “They Never Shut Down”
Manager Torey Lovullo called it a “highly-charged moment in a highly-charged stadium,” speaking with immense pride about his club’s effort.
“It was a great moment for this team, for everything that we’re fighting for, for all the ups, the downs, the good moments, the bad moments… they go out and link up to one another and fight as hard as any team I’ve ever managed. I’m proud to be their manager for that reason.”
The pivotal moment came when Adrian Del Castillo crushed a two-run pinch-hit homer, cutting the deficit to 4-3.
James McCann’s Gutsy, Self-Called Bunt
The ninth-inning chaos that led to the walk-off win was set up by veteran catcher James McCann’s incredibly gutsy play. With the tying runs on base, McCann received the bunt sign but fouled off two pitches. Manager Lovullo took the sign off, not wanting to put pressure on him with two strikes. However, McCann was determined to execute after insisting to Lovullo for weeks that he could bunt.
On bunting with two strikes, McCann explained his committed mentality: “Mentally, I had sold out that I was going to get it down, and I was going to give [the next batter] a chance to tie and win the game… I went to college. You don’t survive college without knowing how to bunt.”
His successful sacrifice bunt moved the runners into scoring position, leading to the dramatic finale. Geraldo Perdomo came up with two outs and the tying run already scored, and down to the final strike, the shortstop shot a middle-middle slider into left field, scoring the winning run.
Frogdomo Does It Again!
With the game tied 4-4, two outs, and down to the final strike, star shortstop Geraldo Perdomo shot a middle-middle slider into left field, scoring the winning run. The walk-off hit was the exclamation point on his truly remarkable breakout season.
Perdomo spoke to reporters with characteristic humility and focus after the intense victory:
“It means a lot. Like [manager Torey Lovullo] says, win the inch. We came from behind and we win this important game for us. But it’s not about me. It’s about all the guys that were in front of me.”
He reflected on his personal journey to becoming a clutch hitter: “I never expected I would have a lot of success early in my career. I’m a kid that [is] never going to give up. I’m always going to work hard. It doesn’t matter if I perform bad or good. I’m going to be the same kid.”
His performance earned him the highest praise from both teammates and manager:
James McCann said, “I believe that there are certain guys that I’ve played with in my career that, when they come up to the plate in a big spot, I wouldn’t want anyone else having that opportunity. Perdomo is one of those people.”
Torey Lovullo said, “I think we were all watching somebody emerge and turn into a very, very good player. And I threw him into that elite category.”
Game 2
The thrill of Tuesday night quickly turned to the agony of Wednesday. The D-backs were oh so close to grabbing a huge advantage but fell 5-4 to the Dodgers in a tough-to-swallow, 11-inning loss.
Nelson’s Nine Strikeouts Lead the Pitching Effort
Facing the intense pressure of a must-win game in the thick of the Wild Card hunt, Ryne Nelson delivered one of the most important outings of his young career. The right-hander provided the crucial length the bullpen desperately needed, going six strong innings. Relying heavily on his trademark fastball and mixing in sharp secondary pitches, Nelson racked up an impressive nine strikeouts, keeping the Dodgers’ powerful lineup largely in check. His crucial quality start held the team within striking distance, an essential foundation for the later comeback attempt. It’s a shame the outing ended up being another no decision for Nelson to add to his extensive collection this season.
The Controversial 10th-Inning Bunt
The heartbreaking loss was marred by a controversial decision in the bottom of the 10th. With automatic runner Ketel Marte at second, Manager Lovullo called for Geraldo Perdomo to execute a sacrifice bunt to move him to third. While Perdomo executed, the D-backs failed to score with the bases loaded and one out.
Lovullo defended his decision post-game:
“The analytics says to bunt… I feel like when you get a run at third base and less than two outs, you’ve got to find a way to win the baseball game… We just didn’t execute. We’re all hurting right now, I’m not going to lie,” Lovullo continued. “And we should, because I feel like we could have played better and done better to win this baseball game.”
Jack Sommers mentioned on his podcast Snakes Territory that the press room didn’t react too well after Torey mentioned the analytics.
Game 3
The tension of the first two games evaporated quickly in the series finale as the Diamondbacks were shut out 8-0 by the Dodgers. The loss allowed Los Angeles to clinch their 12th NL West title in 13 years and, more importantly for Arizona, it dropped the D-backs to an increasingly desperate position with only three games remaining.
The High-Stakes Strategy
Faced with the need for a fifth starter and an opportunity to strategically align their rotation, a mixture of the front office and managing staff opted for a bullpen game, pushing an ace returning to form back to Friday’s opener in San Diego. Lovullo cited Gallen being “somewhat gassed” from pitching sick in his last two outings as the primary reason for the coach’s decision to give him an extra day of rest.
The bullpen game plan hinged on left-handed opener Jalen Beeks matching up against a Dodgers lineup that typically features lefties Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman high in the order.
“The first inning is going to be real big for us,” Lovullo explained. “You’ve got, in my opinion, three of the best players in the world in one space, and you can attack them the best way you possibly can with a left-handed pitcher, you’re going to do it. That’s how it adds up.”
Immediate Counter and Collapse
The strategy was immediately undermined when Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts tweaked his lineup, moving right-hand batter Teoscar Hernández into the third spot and dropping Freeman to fourth.
After Beeks retired the side in order in the first, he stayed in to face Freeman to open the second. The first baseman crushed a home run to right. Right-hander Nabil Crismatt entered for the bulk innings and was immediately greeted by a homer from Andy Pages.
Despite Lovullo’s pre-game vow to have a “quick hook,” the damage happened too fast in the fourth inning when the Dodgers struck for four runs on a pair of two-run homers by Ohtani and Freeman.
“It just happened really quick,” Lovullo said. “This was not a great day for us. We just never got anything going offensively.”
Yamamoto Shuts Down D-backs Offense
The D-backs offense was completely stifled by Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who delivered six dominant scoreless innings, allowing only four hits and two walks.
“You gotta give Yamamoto a lot of credit. He was attacking the zone, he was pitching backwards with really good stuff, and we just never figured out that part of the puzzle,” Lovullo conceded.
Playoff Picture
The 1-2 series result leaves the D-backs a game behind the Reds (who hold the tiebreaker) and two games behind the Mets with only three games remaining in San Diego. Their destiny is no longer solely in their own hands.
Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo summed up the mindset:
“We’ve just got to go and win some games… That’s the last three games of the season, and we have to give everything we have [left] in the tank.”
Category: General Sports