Week 4 best bets for Giants-Chargers

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 4 edition! Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmes!

The Giants are set to open a new era on Sunday, with first-round rookie Jaxson Dart set to replace Russell Wilson as starting quarterback after a disappointing 0-3 start. We knew going into the season that the schedule was tough, and this Sunday is certainly evidence of that as the 3-0 L.A. Chargers are coming to town. It’s not exactly an easy spot for a young QB’s debut. The line is L.A. -6.5, with a game total of 43.5.

Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are shaking off the reputation of being the team that can’t finish off a win. They’re 2-0 in one-score games so far this season, with both of those close wins coming against 2024 playoff teams. Last week, they won in walk-off fashion against the Broncos. Justin Herbert is playing great football, and their defense has allowed just 50 points so far, which is the third lowest total in the league. They’ve got it going on right now, while the 0-3 Giants are searching for answers in all three phases of the game.

I went 2-1 again last week, and was one Travis Kelce catch away from a perfect 3-0. Dude, stop with the wedding planning and focus on football! I’m now in positive territory for the year and I’ll try to keep that going this week.

Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from Fanduel and are as of Friday, September 26.

1. Chargers FIRST HALF -3.5 (-110). I’m 0-2 picking against the spread for full games this season, but 1-0 with spread bets for a quarter or half. I have no idea how Dart will play, and whether he’ll spark the team, but I have my doubts about a fast start in his first extended game action. Brian Daboll needs this move to work to have any chance of saving his job, but it’s still curious that he didn’t wait one more week (@NO) to make the move against a softer defense. The Giants have had a lot of slow starts in games in the Daboll era. I think the Chargers should be able to get out to a decent lead in the first half, with their defense confusing Dart and perhaps forcing a turnover or two. A back-door cover by Big Blue for the full game is on the table, so the full game spread is a stay-away for me.

• Omarion Hampton OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-114). This wager looks almost too easy. With Najee Harris done for the year, Hampton should dominate the Chargers’ backfield, and the Giants have struggled to stop their opponents’ rushing attacks. In fact, they rank dead last in the NFL against the run, at 153.3 yards per game. Hampton managed 70 yards on 19 carries against Denver last week and he should be able to better that in a game where he’s the lead back the whole way, and the Chargers are likely to be playing from ahead.

• Malik Nabers UNDER 64.5 receiving yards (-114). I’m loath to take an under with Nabers. He’s that good, and I don’t ever want to root against him going off on an opponent. But I’m trying to find winning wagers. I’m sure Dart will try hard to get the ball to his top weapon and to push the ball downfield. I’m also sure the Chargers will try to take him away, to force Dart to go through his progressions and find other targets while under duress. They can scout this by watching how another talented secondary (the Chiefs) played Nabers last week. They held him to 2-13 on seven targets. I expect a better stat line this week, but not by enough to cover the number. I also think we’ll see plenty of RPOs, which might limit the downfield passing attempts some.

Those are the picks for Week 4. Good luck with your wagers!

For those who play fantasy football, be sure to check out my Week 4 fantasy preview, with Start/sit, sleepers, and more!