Is Kyler Murray actually good?

Some say Week 1 is a liar, but the reality is that the first few weeks of the season are a month-long fling with that one-night stand you thought could become something special but ends up flaming out.

Last season, the New Orleans Saints started 2-0 and scored 40-plus points in each of their first two games. Derek Carr was labeled a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, Klint Kubiak was the next big thing, and the Saints were the darlings of the NFL. Now, Carr is retired, and Kubiak is in Seattle after the Saints went 5-12.

Cut to 2025, where the Arizona Cardinals had a fun hookup after a party and teased fans that 2025 could be the season that sees them get back to the playoffs. They squeaked out wins against the Saints and Carolina Panthers to begin the year, before dropping two games in four days to drop to 2-2. In those two games, the Cardinals are averaging just 17.5 points per game while their quarterback continues to be a weekly mystery box. And as Kyler Murray starts another season showing he isn’t committing to long-term, it looks more and more likely that the Cardinals will be swiping left and right on quarterback Tinder come 2026. 

This is Year 7 for Murray, and he has yet to take the step into becoming a consistently great quarterback in the NFL. Instead, he hovers in the purgatory of quarterbacks who show you just enough to never move on, but not enough to give a franchise confidence that they can be a true difference-maker.

In the first two weeks of the season, Murray ranked seventh in success rate and 11th in Expected Points Added plus Completion Percentage Over Expected composite. In Weeks 3 and 4, he has a success rate of 41.8 percent, which ranks 25th entering the Week 4 Sunday slate, and his EPA+CPOE ranks 22nd.

On top of that, Murray isn’t pushing the ball downfield. He ranks 33rd among 35 quarterbacks in average depth of target, per FTN Fantasy, and he’s 25th in catchable air yards. He’s averaged less than 5 yards per attempt in each of the last two games, and if not for the Cardinals’ final two drives, he would have finished with 116 yards. Even Murray’s rushing hasn’t been game-changing like it used to be, as he had more slides 2 yards past the line of scrimmage than explosive runs.

This is just who Murray is. He has never thrown for 30 touchdowns in a season and has only thrown 25 touchdowns once, back in 2020. The Cardinals have won zero playoff games with him at the helm, and they’ve only made it to the postseason once in his career. He’s like if you went into Madden, made Russell Wilson two inches shorter, put his speed up 10 attributes, and replaced God with Fortnite.

None of this is to say that Murray is a bad quarterback, but it is to say he isn’t a good one. When you show the same type of production (or lack thereof) for seven years, that’s just who you are as a player. And for a team like the Cardinals, who lack superstar game-wreckers on either side of the ball, a mediocre, unremarkable quarterback puts a hard ceiling on them as a franchise.

Luckily for Arizona, they have the right head coach in Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals finished second in defensive DVOA in 2024 and have done a good job of preventing explosive plays. Combined with defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, the Cardinals have a coaching staff in place to get the Cardinals back to their winning ways.

It’s now just a matter of finding the right quarterback to get them there, and unless he blows the doors off the rest of the season, Murray’s days with the franchise are likely numbered.