Recent play doesn’t necessarily mean a team will have a bad October.
The Cubs got off to a very good start this year.
They defeated the Red Sox in the first two of a three-game series at Wrigley Field right after the All-Star break. At that point they were 59-39, 20 games over .500. That’s a .602 winning percentage which, if they had kept it up, would have resulted in a 98-win season.
Well, that didn’t happen. The Cubs finished 92-70, 22 games over .500. Which means that from that 59-39 point, they went just 33-31, which is… pretty mediocre. They lost six of seven before finishing the regular season with a sweep of the Cardinals.
So does that mean they’re out of the postseason after this week? Friends, I am here to tell you the story of five teams since 2000 who have had late-season performances as bad — or worse — than the 2025 Cubs and still got to the World Series. Three of those five teams, in fact, won the Series.
2000 Yankees
On Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2000, the Yankees defeated the Blue Jays 3-2 and were 84-59, leading the AL East by nine games.
Then they lost 15 of their last 18, the worst record in MLB over that span, and won their division only because the Red Sox couldn’t quite play well enough to catch up. The Yankees had the worst record of any of the eight postseason teams, but won a tight division series over the A’s, took care of the 116-win Mariners four games to two in the ALCS and defeated the Mets four games to two in the World Series.
2005 White Sox
On Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2005, the White Sox defeated the Yankees 2-1 and were 74-39, leading the AL Central by 12.5 games.
They lost seven in a row after that, going 17-22 and losing 11 games off that lead. Cleveland collapsed in the final week, dropping six of seven and the White Sox swept them to complete their division title win, and then the Sox went 11-1 in the postseason, sweeping the World Series.
2006 Cardinals
On Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2005, the Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-2 and were 80-69, leading the NL Central by seven games with 13 remaining.
They then lost seven in a row, including being swept in a four-game series by the Astros, who were chasing them in the division. They recovered to win three of their next four, but lost their final regular-season game and if the Astros had won, St. Louis would have been forced to play a makeup of a previous rainout because if they had lost that, the teams would have been tied. But Houston lost to the Braves, and so the Cardinals won the division with an 83-78 record.
They beat the Padres and Mets to get to the World Series, which they won four games to one over the heavily-favored Tigers. The Cardinals’ .516 winning percentage is the lowest ever for a World Series champion.
2017 Dodgers
The Dodgers were blazing through everything, threatening to win 110 or more games. On Friday, Aug. 26, 2017 they defeated the Brewers 3-1 and were 91-36, 55 games over .500 and leading the NL West by 21 (!) games.
They then lost five in a row, won a game over the Padres 1-0, then lost 11 more in a row — a 1-16 stretch that is remarkable for a team that good. They blew more than half of that 21-game lead, leading by nine when the 11-game losing streak finally ended Sept. 12. The Dodgers went 12-6 in their last 18 games and got to the World Series by sweeping the Diamondbacks in the division series and, as you know, winning the NLCS four games to one over the Cubs.
Then they lost the World Series to the Astros, and, well, you know all about how that happened.
2022 Phillies
On Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022, the Phillies defeated the Marlins 6-1 to move to an 80-62 record. They had a wild-card spot well in hand.
They went 7-13 the rest of the way, including being swept by the Cubs at Wrigley Field. They backed into the postseason on a day they lost 10-0 to the Astros because they won a tiebreaker.
Then they trailed the Cardinals 2-0 in the ninth inning of the first game of their Wild Card Series — and scored six runs in that inning to win the game. They took the next game to advance, won their division series over the Braves and the NLCS over the Padres before losing the World Series to Dusty Baker’s Astros.
But that was a heck of a run after that 7-13 finish to the regular season.
There are probably other examples of this; these are some of the most prominent. The point is — once the regular season is over, records reset to zero and it is, really, a new start for every postseason team. Especially this year, there doesn’t seem to be a single dominant club among the 12 postseason teams.
So despite their mediocre run for a couple of months, perhaps the Cubs can turn things on and have a deep run into October.
Category: General Sports
