Vanderbilt took down Alabama 40-35 in 2024. Can the Commodores go back-to-back?
One of the most unlikely Heisman campaigns in college football history could begin in earnest on Saturday.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia’s Heisman odds are already down to 15-1 at BetMGM following the No. 16 Commodores’ undefeated start. If Vanderbilt upsets No. 10 Alabama for the second straight season in Week 6, Pavia is destined to become one of the top favorites.
Pavia either passed or rushed the ball on more than half of Vanderbilt’s plays in its 40-35 upset of Alabama in 2024. He was 16-of-20 passing for 252 yards and threw two touchdowns while rushing 20 times for 56 yards. Vanderbilt held onto the ball for a staggering 42:08 of the game’s 60 minutes and had seven drives of at least seven plays, including a 17-play, 75-yard TD drive in the second quarter that took nearly 10 minutes off the clock.
Vandy's win last year came a week after Alabama beat Georgia. In Week 5, Alabama beat Georgia, 24-21.
This season, Vanderbilt’s offense has taken a step forward from the team that ground out wins last year. Through five games, Pavia is 94-of-126 passing for 1,211 yards and 13 TDs and three interceptions. He also leads the team with 48 carries for 294 yards and two touchdowns. His yards per pass (9.6) and yards per carry (6.1) are currently career highs and only four quarterbacks are responsible for more touchdowns than Pavia is this season.
The former community college and New Mexico State transfer is in his sixth season of college football after spending two years at the New Mexico Military Institute and two with the Aggies before transferring to Vanderbilt two months after NMSU beat Auburn, 31-10.
Since then, Pavia has become a cult hero in the SEC as Vanderbilt went 7-6 a year ago and won its first bowl game in 11 years.
Even if Vanderbilt doesn’t win on Saturday, Pavia has plenty of opportunities to show that he can be a Heisman contender throughout October. The trip to Tuscaloosa is the first of four straight games against ranked opponents for the Commodores as they host LSU and Missouri and visit Texas following an off week in Week 7.
Vanderbilt may be favored in one of those games at the most. Alabama won’t be Pavia’s only chance for a big upset in 2025. But it could be the biggest for his Heisman odds.
Here are the other players we’re watching in Week 6.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (10-1): Another efficient game and a big Alabama win could make Simpson the top Heisman favorite. He’s already tied for the third-best odds with Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith behind Oregon QB Dante Moore (+750) and Miami’s Carson Beck (+900). Simpson has completed over 69% of his passes through four games and has thrown 11 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Texas QB Arch Manning (20-1): The Longhorns travel to Florida in Week 6 as we get a chance to see if Manning can capitalize on his performance against Sam Houston following a bye week. If Manning reverts back to the struggles he had during Texas’ first four games of the season, then it’ll be fair to wonder how Texas will be able to move the ball against a great Oklahoma defense in his first Red River Rivalry start on Oct. 11.
Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson (50-1): Robertson has played five games so far this season but leads the country in passing yards (1.713) and passing touchdowns (17). Kansas State isn’t as good as many of us thought it’d be ahead of the 2025 season, but another big game against the Wildcats will shorten his odds even further.
Iowa State QB Rocco Becht (100-1): The son of former NFL TE Anthony Becht is very much a Heisman long shot, but he could keep creeping his way up the board if the Cyclones keep winning. Becht rushed for three scores in ISU’s home win over Arizona in Week 5 and has 12 total TDs with just two interceptions on 120 pass attempts as Iowa State heads to Cincinnati as a slight underdog on Saturday.
Category: General Sports
