So, What’s Next?

Well, my October is relatively free now for the first time in nearly a decade. It was last year, too, except there is no delusion that perhaps the Astros could make an unexpected run just by getting into the tournament. I do know that my wife wasn’t all that broken up about this year’s development. However, I’ll still watch baseball, even if it is more of a background noise. But my emotional investment has significantly lessened, as I am sure it has among fellow Houston fans.

But I won’t belabor the point: The Astros are at an inflection point. The roster isn’t the oldest in the game — with an average age of 28.7 years, 10th among all thirty teams — but it is an expensive one. And there isn’t some significant youth movement coming through the minor league pipeline anytime soon. Unless Jim Crane continues to spend heavily to help mask any organizational deficiencies, the Major League product is unlikely to improve significantly, regardless of any improvements in health.

So, where do the Astros go from here?

While the lineup was indeed disappointing and requires further examination, it is arguably the pitching staff that needs more immediate attention. I mean, despite pitching poorly in the second half, Framber Valdez has been one of the most durable starting pitchers since 2020. It will be challenging to replace at least 175 innings with comparable results. The only starting pitchers you feel any confidence in at the moment for 2026 are Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, more so due to the former and not the latter. Beyond them, it is a bunch of question marks and guesses. Spencer Arrighetti is probably a safe choice for a starting role, although his uneven performance and recent elbow injury do cast some doubt. A.J. Blubaugh will possibly get a long look for a starting role. Colton Gordon may not have the best stuff, but he did start 14 games, which also feels realistic for next year. Can’t exclude Lance McCullers Jr. from the conversation, but only due to his contract. Jason Alexander and J.P. France? Perhaps Miguel Ullola or Ethan Pecko? A trade or free agent acquisition to boost the starting rotation is a must this offseason.

Ironically, with better health, the bullpen probably doesn’t require too much tweaking. Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa, along with Bryan Abreu on the backend, served this team well before injuries decimated the staff. Bryan King was solid for most of the season. Can you get a repeat season out of Steven Okert, or is he Tayler Scott 2.0? That’s a legitimate question. Enyel De Los Santos might get another look. Please make no mistake, there are openings within this unit, but the odds feel high that Dana Brown does what he has done in each of the past couple of seasons: Find some relief bargains in free agency or through the waiver wire. For what it is worth, and my opinion is admittedly not worth much, I think this is the best way to build a bullpen’s depth.

Frankly, I don’t know how much this lineup can change without a significant overhaul. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Carlos Correa aren’t going anywhere. The most you’re getting in terms of change with them is a subtle tweak here or there. Christian Walker, barring a trade, is going to be back. Jeremy Peña had a career year at the plate, and Jake Meyers was a little bit above league average before a calf injury derailed his season. Isaac Paredes was arguably this team’s second-best hitter in 2025 before a hamstring injury robbed him of a couple of months. The low-hanging fruit is to fire your hitting coaches, Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, but you’re not guaranteed to see better results by that alone. I wouldn’t be opposed to a change with their hitting coaches, though. A new approach could certainly help, but keep any expectations in check. Instead, it will be the player personnel and the health of Alvarez, Paredes, and Peña that drive whether this lineup rebounds in a meaningful way.

Then there is Cam Smith, whose potential was on display throughout June, but quickly faded from July onward.

It didn’t feel like a coincidence that Smith’s rookie season took a downward turn when he got closer to his previous career-best in games played in a single season. It also wasn’t a surprise to see his numbers spike a bit toward the end of the season when he wasn’t playing every day. Additionally, by the time he was tired, there was a wealth of data and video available on how to pitch to Smith. There is no doubt that the Astros will give Smith every opportunity to start in right field again in 2026, but he will need to make adjustments to succeed across a full season.

From an organizational perspective, I believe the Astros’ best aspect remains their player development system, particularly on the pitching side of the equation. While there are legitimate question marks about the overall depth of the system, this club does quite well in developing its existing talent. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a few more players, whom we haven’t heard much about, take a step forward and help this team in 2026. The one area I’d like to see the system take a step forward, though, remains the depth of the system. This farm system is considered one of the thinnest in the game, and it shows. There is an evident lack of high-end, impact talent at the top, especially on the position player side. I’d think Brown’s draft classes from 2023 through 2025 will need to start showing some growth next year. Otherwise, another year with a lowly ranked farm system invites speculation about the front office’s approach to the draft and its ability to identify amateur talent. Then there is the whole medical/training staff situation. All I will say is that they need to take an honest look at their operations, at the very least, and proceed from there.

In all honesty, I don’t think Brown and Joe Espada are going anywhere, at least for 2026. Injuries, although not the only reason, were a primary cause for this roster’s inability to exceed 87 wins. Looking back at this roster, which had 15, 16, 17, or even 18 players on the IL at one point, 87 wins were somehow impressive. But, still not enough. With that said, any issues left unresolved in 2026 will likely throw their respective futures with the Astros into question. The next twelve calendar months will be crucial to the long-term direction of the franchise.