2025 Orioles Pre-Season Contest Results

It’s no secret that the 2025 Orioles season was a disaster. It wasn’t as big a disaster as other recent years, record-wise. But as far as meeting expectations, it ended up as one of the worst seasons I can remember.

Back in March, when the annual pre-season contest went up, things felt a lot different. That optimism was reflected in both the questions in the contest and the answers given. I felt a renewed sadness when reviewing them.

A big thank you to all 257 players. The winning participant in this year’s contest correctly answered 20 questions. Congratulations to simpsonps121! There is a three-way tie for second between agarre3552, booth not boo, and Thomas Jackson. Well done to the top four. You can check your score on our results spreadsheet.

If you’re curious about how the contest authors did, Mark answered 16 questions correctly (29th overall). I was worse with 14 (85th). Both of our spouses scored better than we did. Knightley scored an impressive 18 (5th), while Paul came in at 17 (12th).

Read on to see the answers to all 30 questions in this year’s contest. And be sure to check back in about five months for next year’s version.

Which will be higher?

1. Tyler O’Neill or Anthony Santander OPS+? O’Neill – 92, Santander – 57. If you had told me before the season that O’Neill would be a better hitter than Santander, I would have thought good things to be in store. Instead, both players missed most of the season and weren’t too good when they played. 70.4% answered correctly.
2. Number of starts by Cade Povich or Albert Suárez? Povich – 20, Suárez – 1. Povich had a bad season, but at least he was mostly healthy. Poor Suárez missed a bunch of time with injury, returned and looked good, then got hurt again. 79.4% answered correctly.
3. Gunnar Henderson fWAR or Dean Kremer wins? Kremer – 11, Henderson – 4.8. Remember I said some of the answers made me sad? Good on Dean for getting to double-digit wins, I guess. 69.6% answered correctly.
4. Doubles by Adley Rutschman or Colton Cowser? Rutschman – 16, Cowser – 14. Another depressing answer. 54.1% answered correctly.
5. Games played by Ramón Laureano or Ramón Urías? Laureano – 82, Urías – 77. A close one! Only 23.7% answered correctly for our first upset. Laureano really did end up being a great signing.
6. Seranthony Domínguez HR allowed or Jackson Holliday stolen bases? Holliday – 17 SB, Domínguez – 4 HR. This ended up being a mismatch. Domínguez’s HR rate went down quite a bit while Holliday’s SB total went up. But since Holliday got caught 11 times, it wasn’t exactly a positive development. 85.2% answered correctly.
7. Cedric Mullins SB or Jordan Westburg HR? Westburg – 17 HR, Mullins – 14. If you add in Mullins’s SB as a Met, he wins. But that’s not how the game is played. Disappointing numbers for both (are you seeing a trend?) 43.6% answered correctly.
8. Orioles HR hit at OPACY or Zach Eflin ERA+? OPACY HR – 106, Eflin ERA+ 68. Eflin sure fell apart, huh? 87.9% answered correctly.
9. Charlie Morton or Tomoyuki Sugano ERA? Morton – 5.43, Sugano – 4.64. Double woof, but Morton lost the battle of the old men. 29.2% answered correctly.
10. Gary Sánchez starts at C or Yennier Cano innings pitched? Cano – 58, Sánchez – 19. Cano got a pretty regular workload despite a 5+ ERA. Sánchez was bad, then hurt, then briefly good, then hurt again. 52.5% answered correctly

Over/Under

1. Orioles wins: 89.5 – UNDER (75). 23% answered correctly.
2. Félix Bautista saves: 29.5 – UNDER (19). 64.6% answered correctly.
3. Longest win streak: 4.5 – OVER (6). 96.1% answered correctly.
4. Camden Yards season attendance: 2.4 million – UNDER (1.8M) 42% answered correctly. This is brutal, a total drop of 477,474. And the team is responded with jacked up season ticket plans and luxury amenities.
5. Number of Orioles with 20+ HR: 3.5 – UNDER (0). ZERO!

Who will be the first…

1. Oriole to hit a home run? Adley Rutschman. Remember Opening Day Adley? Things seemed so different then. 36.6% answered correctly, and Adley was the most common pick.
2. Orioles starter to get a win? Zach Eflin (also on Opening Day). 73.2 picked correctly.
3. Team to sweep the Orioles? Detroit Tigers (April 26-27). Just 12 people answered correctly. The most common answer was “The Orioles will not get swept,” which is out of control spring optimism.
4. Team the Orioles sweep? Chicago White Sox (May 30 – June 1). The most common answer was the Red Sox. 8.9% picked the White Sox.
5. Orioles to go on the injured list? Albert Suárez went on the IL on March 30th. Just four people answered correctly. The most common answer was Tyler O’Neill, of course. O’Neill lasted until April 26th.

Yes/No

1. Will Grayson Rodriguez make his 2025 debut before Jorge Mateo? No. I expect next year we’ll have an over/under on Grayson’s innings pitched. 79.8% answered correctly.
2. Will Samuel Basallo make his major league debut in 2025? Yes! He debuted on August 17th and played in 31 games. 85.6% answered correctly.
3. Will the Orioles trade either Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo before the trade deadline? No. Kjerstad became untradeable. Mayo might still be part of this team’s future. 53.3% answered correctly.
4. Will the Orioles sign a player to a contract extension before the end of the season? Yes. I thought this answer would be no, but the Orioles signed Basallo to an eight-year contract just five days after his MLB debut. 40.9% answered correctly.
5. Will the Orioles win a postseason series? No. When we were writing these questions, I suggested we make this question: “Will the Orioles go to the postseason?” But Mark convinced me that everyone would answer yes to that. Given that only 19.8% answered no to winning a postseason series, he was certainly right. But I was right in my pessimism.

Multiple Choice

1. Which of the following players will have the highest OPS (min 350 PA)? Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías, Tyler O’Neill, Ryan O’Hearn – O’Hearn and it wasn’t close. His .837 OPS was 149 points higher than Urías, who didn’t meet the 350 PA threshold. 7.8% chose correctly; most chose O’Neill.
2. Which pitcher will have the 2nd most saves? Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, Cionel Pérez, or someone else? Keegan Akin – 8. 16.7% correctly chose someone else. Domínguez was the most common answer. The bullpen was so weird this year.
3. Who will lead the Orioles in innings pitched? Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, or someone else? Kremer pitched 171.2 innings, 14 more than Sugano. The most common answer was Eflin; 12.1% chose Kremer.
4. Against which AL East team will the Orioles have the most wins? Rays – 7. The Rays were the only AL East team against which the Orioles had a winning record. They were the most common answer with 56%.
5. In which month will the Orioles have their highest winning %? June (16-11, .593). It looked like September could be their best month, but the Yankees saw to it that it was not. 30.7% picked June.