Check out players who are running hot or cold and are due for regression headed into Week 5.
The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Derrick Henry during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
Let's start today with which offenses have been pass heavy or which ones have been run heavy through the season's first month. This is measured in pass rate over expected (PROE), a nice and neat way to see at a glance how a team is operating according to the pass rate you would expect them to have as adjusted for game flow and situation.
Pass Heavy Offenses
LA Chargers: 10 percent PROE
Arizona: 8.8 percent PROE
Kansas City: 8.6 percent PROE
Denver: 7.2 percent PROE
Baltimore: 5.6 percent PROE
-The Bolts continue slinging it. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has seemingly embraced Justin Herbert as the engine of the LA offense, and his pass catchers not named Ladd McConkey have benefited bigly. It’s not that McConkey is an afterthought in the Chargers offense. He’s second on the team in first-read targets, according to Fantasy Points Data. However, he’s being targeted on an ordinary 17 percent of his routes, well short of Keenan Allen (26 percent) and Quentin Johnston (23 percent). The hope is that Ladd works his way up the pecking order in the coming weeks. There’s no guarantee that’ll happen, of course.
-The Cardinals largely abandoning the run game should be welcome news for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, Jr., who finally had a nice game in Week 4. The team’s surprising pass volume has led to MHJ running the sixth most pass routes among receivers through four games. Never a target commander — he’s seen a target on just 16 percent of his routes — MHJ can get by on that sort of volume if it holds up throughout the season.
-The Broncos going pass-heavy should be a nice development for Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Evan Engram, and other secondary options in the team’s passing offense. Bo Nix’s 34.8 attempts per game ranks ninth through Week 4.
-My guess is that the Ravens will get even more pass-heavy if Lamar Jackson (hamstring) misses time. Perhaps the team’s drop back numbers won’t change dramatically, but under Cooper Rush — the team’s QB2 for whatever reason — those Jackson rushing attempts will magically turn into pass attempts. A (big?) bump in throws could be a boon for Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews, but only if Rush can operate the offense in a halfway competent way. Baltimore ranks 29th in pass attempts through Week 4.
Run Heavy Offenses
Atlanta: -4.2 percent PROE
New Orleans: -4.5 percent PROE
Seattle: -4.8 percent PROE
Philadelphia: -5 percent PROE
New York Jets: -6.5 percent PROE
-A quick mention of a team not listed above: I spoke with a group of Gen Z folks at a diner in Akron, Ohio and they told me Raiders OC Chip Kelly has gone “ultra, turbo, giga run heavy” over the past two weeks. The metrics bear out these zoomer claims. The Raiders in Week 3 were 14 percent below their expected pass rate; in Week 4 they were 8 percent below. Only three teams were more run-heavy over those two games. It could be a (big) problem for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, two guys who over the season’s first two weeks looked to be big-time beneficiaries of a pass-first offense.
-That whole thing where the fast-paced Saints offense drops back a thousand times a week is over. It was fun (not fun) while it lasted. New Orleans has gone run heavy over the past couple games. Still, they rank sixth in pass attempts because, you see, they’re always chasing points. Puka Nacua is the only wideout with more targets than Chris Olave through Week 4. Juwan Johnson is third in tight end targets. Eventually that could mean something for both players. Meanwhile, it’s over for Alvin Kamara, who has 15 targets and 49 receiving yards this year. He shouldn’t be played in 12-team leagues and probably shouldn’t be rostered in 10-team formats.
-It’s going to be tough for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to get there for fantasy purposes at this rate. That was always part of the risk in drafting them. Brown in Week 4 -- before posting crytpicaly about being ignored in the Philadelphia offense -- saw 72 percent of the team’s air yards and 33 percent of the team’s targets. That netted him two catches for seven yards. Expect more cryptic social media posts from the mercurial Brown.
Kyle DvorchakPositive Regression Candidates
Brian Thomas (JAC)
Drafting Thomas in the second round of your fantasy drafts felt so good, so right. You had never been quite so confident you were getting an elite player in the second round. It felt like an extra first rounder, if you were being honest with yourself and your feckless league mates.
A month later, you’ve never regretted anything quite as much as you regret taking Thomas in any round. This stinks. It was supposed to be fun. All the fancy analysts with their fancy numbers said rostering Thomas in his second NFL season would be a good time, a weekly affirmation that you’re smart, or at least smarter than your league mates who now laugh at your and your BTJ 4 LIFE ankle tattoo.
Keep the tattoo. Because the good kind of regression is coming, even if Trevor Lawrence downright stinks (he stinks) and is clearly way worse than Mac Jones. Thomas’ usage is the stuff of WR1 dreams: He ranks 13th among wideouts in targets and 12th in air yards. He’s seeing a target on a solid 25 percent of his routes and has a comfortable lead among Jaguars pass catchers in first-read targets. He’s being moved around the formation — all the cool stuff that usually creates a bunch of fantasy points.
When the drops stop and Lawrence strikes up a little chemistry with his clear WR1, things will break Thomas’ way and your ankle tattoo will once again look cool. Just don’t bench Thomas this week against the Chiefs.
Chris Godwin (TB)
Godwin in Week 4 against the Eagles was finally back from his nightmarish October 2024 ankle injury. That he ended up with 26 scoreless yards doesn’t tell the whole story. Otherwise what would I write about besides A.J. Brown listening to the enemy speak kindly while holding a knife.
Godwin ran a pass route on 43 of Baker Mayfield’s 47 drop backs and tied Emeka Egbuka for the team lead with ten targets against the Eagles. He edged out Egbuka with 46 percent of the Bucs’ air yards, almost all of them of the unrealized variety. A 23 percent target per route in your first game back from a career-threatening injury ain’t half bad. Keep playing Godwin, especially with Mike Evans sidelined.
Xavier Worthy (KC)
Keep rolling with Worthy. He returned from his Week 1 shoulder injury last week against the Ravens and was promptly targeted on a heady 32 percent of his pass routes on his way to five catches for 84 yards.
He ran cold though, which is why he's highlighted here. Worthy accounted for 60 percent of KC's air yards; only seven players in the league had more air yards in Week 4. He came awfully close to a couple long gains, as Patrick Mahomes experiments with occasionally throwing the ball beyond the sticks. Worthy could pop in Week 5 against the Jaguars.
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
I had to include CMC — who’s producing like an elite fantasy receiver — in this space if only to tell you that he has zero touchdowns on nine inside-the-ten carries. Only Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley have more through four weeks.
McCaffrey was the Guy You Need in fantasy football this season. He’s going to score 1 million fantasy points. The social media injury experts have never been down worse.
Daniel Jones (IND)
Consider this a follow-up to last week’s analysis on Daniel D. Dimes running ice cold on touchdowns. The spell broke last week against the Rams but Adonai Mitchell ruined all the predictable regression by fumbling a would-be 75-yard touchdown out of the back of the end zone and maybe ending his NFL career. So it goes.
Jones’ 3.3 percent TD rate ranks 28th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks entering Week 5. The passing scores are going to happen eventually for the guy who ranks second in the NFL in drop back success rate. It might happen as soon as this week against a miserable Vegas defense.
Negative Regression Candidates
Darren Waller (MIA)
There goes Denny again, telling us this little-used guy isn’t always going to catch two touchdowns every week. We know, Denny, we know.
But wait, there’s more. Waller, in his first game action of the season, ran a route on 12 of the Dolphins’ 30 drop backs. That’s … not a great rate. What is a great rate: Waller was targeted on 33 percent of those routes, including three red zone targets. Big Man Being Relentlessly Targeted Where It Counts The Most is always a good role to have in fantasy. Maybe Waller can be played in 12-team leagues with the idea that he’ll have at least a shot at a touchdown every week.
Tyreek Hill’s absence from the Miami lineup leaves a truckload of air yards and targets. Hill had accounted for 54 percent of the team’s air yards and 26 percent of the targets before suffering a gruesome leg injury in Monday night’s win over the Jets.
The lumbering 33-year-old Waller isn’t going to absorb much in the way of air yards. We could, however, see a target bump with Hill done for the year. We could also see a snap and route increase for Waller as he works his way into game shape. We’re only one year removed from Jonnu Smith — a very different kind of tight end, granted — being the centerpiece of the entire Miami offense. Waller being a thing in fantasy is certainly in the range of outcomes, as we say when we don’t really know what’s going to happen.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
I know. You’re kicking yourself this week for benching Doubs against the sieve commonly known as the Dallas Cowboys secondary. Doubs finished Sunday night’s fraudulent tie with six receptions, 58 yards, and all three of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. You see those scores in your mind’s eye when you lie down to sleep at night. They haunt you. You are tormented by those 25 beautiful fantasy points sitting on your bench. You may never be the same.
It will never happen again. So you have that going for you, which is nice. Doubs’ Week 4 usage was fine, but far from spectacular. He led the team with a humble 18.5 percent target share, seeing a look from Love on 24 percent of his pass routes. He happened to see three of the Packers’ four end zone targets and cashed in on every one of them. So it goes.
This isn’t to dismiss Doubs as a non-entity in 14-team fantasy formats. He should be in those lineups with Jayden Reed sidelined for a while. Matthew Golden, who has zero on-field awareness and who never commanded targets in college, is continuing in that grand personal tradition in the pros. Tucker Kraft had one good game; fit him for his Hall of Fame jacket, I suppose. Doubs is probably the WR1 in this insanely run-heavy Green Bay offense for now. Don’t force him into 12-team lineups though.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Addison lives in this section of the Regression Files because he gets away with it all the time. Maybe that's just the kind of player he is. Either way, the folks need to know to what extent Addison got away with it last week against the Steelers.
Addison saw a target on a humble 15 percent of his routes against Pittsburgh. He accounted for 31 percent of the Vikings' air yards, a fairly normal rate for the speedster. That 81 of his 114 receiving yards came on one catch means he is the bad kind of regression candidate in Week 5 (in a game against the Browns with the week's lowest Vegas total).
Baker Mayfield (TB)
Mayfield has been plainly bad through the first month of the regular season. Curious, you say. The guy just threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns on the vaunted Eagles defense and you say he stinks. Again: Curious!
Well look, Baker gets away with it harder than anyone has ever gotten away with it. Fifty-two percent of his Week 4 passing yardage came on two completions. Maybe it’s the vibes, maybe it’s a deal he made with an otherworldly entity, I don’t know. I do know the spreadsheets say he’s struggling in ways that make his current production unsustainable.
Mayfield’s completion rate over expected ranks 27th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. He’s been particularly miserable on intermediate passes (10-20 yards), ranking 28th in accuracy on those throws after proving stellar on such attempts in 2024. Mayfield leads the NFL with nine turnover worthy throws, per Pro Football Focus, and has a mere one pick to show for it. He ranks 20th with eight red zone attempts, but has thrown four TDs inside the 20. His touchdown rate of nearly 6 percent is way above his career rate.
Baker is running hot, real hot, and I don’t think it can last. Just be aware of potential regression for Mayfield in the coming weeks if you’re in a shallow league with lots of solid QB options available.
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)
Rodgers is second in the NFL — trailing only Lamar Jackson — in touchdown rate. He’s thrown for a score on 7.5 percent of his attempts through Week 4. Four of his five inside-the-ten attempts have gone for touchdowns, and six of his ten red zone completions have been scores.
I will bravely say this can’t last and you should feel bad about getting away with it in superflex leagues where you greedily drafted Old Man Rodgers. In a Pittsburgh offense that ranks as the league’s sixth run heaviest unit, the TD luck (variance) will run dry one day soon.
Category: General Sports
