Matt Russell runs through NFL survivor pool Week 5 strategy and a few games to target.
It’s not a perfect example, but whether the new overtime rules for the regular season had anything to do with the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys tying at 40, for those who took the Packers, you received a rude reminder that ties are a loss in any self-respecting NFL Survivor contest.
The other big gash this week came from the Los Angeles Chargers' loss in New York.
Not to toot horns, but here’s our advice from last week:
"Our fifth spot could go to the Chargers, but a road trip a week after a third divisional game is not a great spot to get the best out of a team. Meanwhile, the Giants are turning to Jaxson Dart, and if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, the team is looking forward to the breath of fresh air at quarterback. It could also be the Packers in this spot, but they’re also on the road, and there’s three home games where Green Bay will be favored by this much, or more."
Of course, if you didn’t heed this warning, you’re not reading this anyway, because you’re out of your survivor contest.
If you are still alive in your pool, here's our advice for Week 5.
Contest sizes can vary. From the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that. However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.
Week 5 moneylines
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams, and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Bills: 19.7
Lions: 19.2
Packers: 18.8
Chiefs: 18.8
Eagles: 18.0
Rams: 17.8
Chargers: 16.7
Broncos: 15.9
Colts: 15.3
Seahawks: 15.3
Texans: 14.7
Commanders: 14.7
Jaguars: 14.6
Patriots: 14.4
Steelers: 14.5
Vikings: 14.2
Bucs: 13.7
Cardinals: 13.0
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 5 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.
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Week 5’s top choices
As we look at the best options for Week 5 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from the pick and previous ones.
Team(s) you’ve most likely used:
Broncos (most popular selection Week 1)
Cardinals, Ravens, Cowboys
Seahawks, Bills, Buccaneers
Texans, Bills, Lions
The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those future matchups).
1. Cardinals (79.4%) over Titans
According to Circa’s “availability matrix” two of the most already-used teams are the Cardinals (third-most at 53.3%) and Bills (most at 57.4%). Naturally, the choice for Week 5 is between those two teams.
Not only are the Cardinals the second-most likely team to win this week as 7.5-point home favorites against lowly Tennessee, but it’s likely now-or-never for using Arizona — especially since they’re coming off a mini-bye and a home loss, which should provide the rest and motivation for the Cardinals to be able to play to the high end of their ability. Meanwhile, the Titans continued to not be particularly close to winning a game last week, as they were shut out without even reaching the red zone in Houston. Tennessee is last in yards per play on offense, and 28th in yards per play allowed on defense.
What you’re giving up:
Week 16 vs. Falcons (ARI -1)
Week 17 at Bengals (ARI -4)
Barring an injury to the quarterback of one the teams on the Cardinals’ home schedule, this might be the last time Arizona is even favored. While they’d be favored over the Bengals if the game were played tomorrow, you don’t want to risk the return of Joe Burrow in Week 17. Ideally, we’d like to assert that the Cardinals are a top-18 team, but it’s a debate between them and teams like the Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers, and Vikings. However, any team facing the Titans seems to be worthy of a top-18 rating on that given Sunday.
2. Bills (77.6%) over Patriots
Waiting one more week to use the Bills in primetime at home against the Patriots sounded like a good idea, until the Patriots cleaned up their act and routed the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been a little too stressed in the second halves of home games with the Dolphins and Saints, for us to be at maximum confidence.
The lookahead line for this matchup was Bills -10, but with a minor downgrade for not covering Buffalo’s big point spreads, and the Patriots’ win, this line has crept down to where it’s not a top-three game in terms of win probability for the Bills’ remaining games.
What you’re giving up:
Week 8 at Panthers (BUF -10)
Week 10 at Dolphins (BUF -7.5)
Week 14 vs. Bengals (BUF -14)
Week 18 vs. Jets (BUF -12.5)
The Bills go to Atlanta next week and then have a bye before playing at Carolina in Week 8. Given their home winning streak, you’d prefer to take Buffalo in Orchard Park, but the other best options that week are:
Falcons (home to Dolphins)
Patriots (home to Browns)
Colts (home to Titans)
We’ve added Week 10 to the “What you’re giving up” list, as that week’s shaping up to be so barren with Survivor options that the Bears (home to the Giants) is looking like the next-best choice.
3. Colts (73.2%) over Raiders
How bad are the Raiders?
That’s the question as the Colts get their first opportunity to be a big favorite at home.
Raiders QB Geno Smith keeps throwing interceptions, but Las Vegas finally got RB Ashton Jeanty going last week in a losing cause against Chicago. It would be nice to have this matchup a little later on, just so we could be convinced that the Raiders don’t have enough to pull off a road upset against a good team, while being even more convinced the Colts are just that.
What you’re giving up:
Week 8 vs. Titans (IND -11)
All decisions in Survivor are inter-connected, and it’s never been easier to define as with the Cardinals, Bills, and Colts. As noted in the Bills’ section, the Colts are the team to target in Week 8 instead of the Bills, as that should be the only other chance to rely on Indy — a team the betting market didn’t have in their top-18 before the season.
The Colts are -3.5 at home against the Cardinals next week, which should be around the same line as their other remaining home games: Falcons, Texans, 49ers and Jaguars.
4. Lions (82.2%) over Bengals
Another quote from last week’s article:
"This might be the first instance of a key injury changing the landscape of the Survivor Contest season…"
That was in reference to the Broncos becoming an option against the Bengals with the injury to Joe Burrow neutering their offense. Cincinnati then got blown out in Denver.
In fact, the Bengals were so bad on Monday night, we didn’t even have this game listed as an option going forward, but now the Lions are the biggest favorite on the board. If there’s a concern, it’s that Jake Browning will be considerably better in his first home game of the season, but that would be quite the leap in six days.
What you’re giving up:
Week 12 vs. Giants (DET -11.5)
Week 14 vs. Cowboys (DET -8.5)
Week 16 vs. Steelers (DET -6.5)
One last time, let’s go to last week for a quote:
"Week 12 sticks out like a sore thumb. Especially if the 49ers (hosting the Panthers on Monday night that week) are going to continue to lose one key player to injury per week. Of course, the Lions will be coming off another big prime time road trip, this time to Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football, so the situation may be similar."
5. Rams (72.6%) over 49ers
The Rams were in our spicy spot here at No. 5 in Week 1, edging the Texans. They are back because, as referenced above, the 49ers are running low on difference-making players. On a short week, Brock Purdy may be out again, and if you were thinking “Well, at least Mac Jones has Ricky Pearsall to throw to,” the burgeoning star receiver may be out as well.
What you’re giving up:
Week 9 vs. Saints (LAR -9.5)
Week 13 at Panthers (LAR -8.5)
The Rams being lined this high of a favorite came from nowhere, due to the injuries to the Niners, so proceed with caution. While San Francisco will be undermanned, we’ve seen crazier things between these two teams, or any divisional matchup, than a potential upset here. There are two other games where the Rams will have an even higher win probability, so navigating between when to play our top-three choices will be the key this week.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Category: General Sports
