The Yankees have their backs against the wall.
It’s just the first day of October, but the season is already on the brink. The Yankees were still alive for the AL East just over 72 hours ago, and yet, they must win tonight or their 2025 campaign will come to an end. Max Fried did his job yesterday, taking the role of Yankees’ ace to heart and tossing 6.1 shutout innings and left in line for the win. A miserable outing for Luke Weaver and an offense that never got to flex its muscles against Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman ruined it for him.
24 hours later, they have to turn the page from all the what-ifs and frustrations. If they don’t, the season is over. History is not on their side. 10 of the 12 teams to lose Game 1 in the Wild Card Series since 2022 got swept, and the other two lost Game 3. The No. 4 seed in the AL hasn’t won a playoff game since the one-game wild card’s swan song in 2021; they’re 0-7 since. However, in 2020, when the expanded postseason yielded the inaugural Wild Card Series, the Athletics and Padres rallied back to win Games 2 and 3. Still, the overall record sits at 2-18.
The Yankees go to All-Star lefty Carlos Rodón with the season on the line. The 32-year-old is coming off his best regular season as a Yankee, going 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA (132 ERA+) and 3.78 FIP across 33 starts and a career-high 195.1 innings. In his Yankee postseason debut last year, he posted a 5.60 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. It remains to be seen what Rodón we’ll get this time.
Will we get the man who allowed three runs in 10.2 innings in two ALCS starts, or the guy who let his emotions get to him against the Royals in the ALDS? The Yankees need the former, and then some. He hasn’t historically been the best against Boston, allowing 10 runs in 15.2 innings across three starts against them this season. The key for him will be command, as Boston was very patient against Fried after the third inning and used that patience to eventually break through against the bullpen.
Brayan Bello will take the mound for Boston, looking to pull off the two-game sweep at Yankee Stadium. Bello is a considerable step down from the otherworldly talent of Crochet, but he’s had a fine season with a 3.35 ERA (123 ERA+) and 4.19 FIP in 28 starts.
What might be notable with Bello, who has never pitched in the postseason, is that he had a 5.40 ERA with 12 walks to just 16 strikeouts in 25 innings in September. He’s only pitched into the sixth once since August. In September, Bello faced the Yankees at Fenway after dominating them repeatedly. He turned in his worst career outing against the Bombers, allowing four runs in five innings on September 13. But that longstanding domination is still notable. In 11 starts, he owns a 2.35 career ERA against the Yankees in 65 innings.
It’s a more natural Yankees lineup tonight. Trent Grisham leads off, Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr. re-enter the lineup, and Ryan McMahon is back in at third base. Funny enough, the Yankees used this exact lineup during Rodón’s last regular season start on September 25 against the White Sox.
For Boston, it’s the exact same lineup as in Game 1. Expect that when Rodón exits, they’ll go to their army of lefties, including Masataka Yoshida, Nathaniel Lowe, and Wilyer Abreu.
How to Watch:
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
First Pitch: 6:08 p.m. EDT
TV broadcast: ESPN (National)
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 | ESPN Radio
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Category: General Sports
