5 things we learned from Falcons bounce-back performance vs. Commanders

Last week felt like rock bottom for Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons offense. This week? The script flipped. Penix looked every bit the franchise quarterback Atlanta drafted him to be, Bijan Robinson continued to look like an Offensive Player of the Year candidate, and Zac Robinson finally seemed to settle into a groove as a play-caller.

But it wasn’t all fireworks. The run defense still left more than a few questions hanging in the air, and as promising as Sunday’s win was, it’s hard not to wonder if this team is just…okay.

Here are five things we learned from the Falcons’ rebound win over Washington.

1) Michael Penix, Jr.: Franchise QB?

This was the Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta needed to see. After the worst performance of his young career a week ago, he bounced back with poise, accuracy, and confidence. He wasn’t just managing the offense; he was commanding it, showing exactly why the Falcons hitched their future to him.

Penix finished 20-of-26 (76.9%) for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Even the pick wasn’t a backbreaker — more of a heat check to an equally hot Drake London on a sideline sail route. Beyond the box score, Penix set career highs in passing yards, completion percentage, EPA per dropback (0.70), and completion percentage over expected (+7.7%), per Next Gen Stats.

Just as important, he finally started pushing the ball downfield. His 10.1 air yards per attempt marked a season high and helped fuel the fourth-best single-game EPA/pass performance by any QB this season.

2) Bijan Robinson may be this year’s OPOY

Bijan didn’t just make plays; he took over. Every time he touched the ball, it felt like Washington’s defense was holding its breath. Through four weeks, Robinson ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, 15th in receiving yards, and 1st in scrimmage yards. That’s not just good; that’s a historic pace.

If this is the version of Bijan the Falcons get week in and week out, he won’t just be in the OPOY conversation; he’ll be leading it. According to FanDuel Sportsbooks, Robinson has the third-best odds for Offensive Player of the Year (+550), behind only Puka Nacua and Jonathan Taylor.

Sunday showcased exactly why Robinson was a top-ten pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

He rushed for 75 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown, but the real game-changer came through the air. Robinson caught four of five targets for 106 yards, generating the most receiving EPA by any running back in the NFL (+7.9). In fact, he owns the top two games in receiving EPA for running backs this season, including his 100-yard performance against the Buccaneers in Week 1 (+7.8).

3) Zac Robinson looked comfortable down on the sideline

After some shaky moments earlier this season, Robinson finally seemed to find his rhythm. The balance was there, the creativity was there, and most importantly, the confidence in his young quarterback was there. It felt like the offense was being called with intention, and it showed.

Robinson attacked Dan Quinn’s single-high coverage over and over again with pre-snap motion, moving Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney to confuse Washington’s secondary. That led to advantageous looks and an offense that saw London, Robinson, and resurgent tight end Kyle Pitts all reach the end zone.

Now, it seems the problem is keeping him on the sidelines in Mercedes-Benz instead of in Stillwater.

4) Should…we be concerned about the run defense?

Okay, time to spray a little cold water on this parade. Out of the top five rushing attacks in terms of success rate, the Falcons face four of them, and five out of the top eight overall. These are the most consistent ground games in football, and one of the deadliest is up next after the bye week: the Buffalo Bills.

The threat of Marcus Mariota running the football forced the Falcons’ linebackers to hesitate at the mesh points, turning a few runs that should have been stopped for minimal gain into successful plays. Those runs kept the Commanders ahead of the sticks and highlighted a potential vulnerability in Atlanta’s run defense. Washington generated 0.20 EPA per rush on Sunday, the third-best mark in the NFL.

Mariota was mostly kept in the pocket, but his 22-yard scramble in the third quarter still helped set up points, showcasing just how dangerous some of the quarterbacks on Atlanta’s schedule can be. The Falcons still have to face Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen, three of whom (Allen, Mayfield, Rattler) rank in the top five for total EPA generated on the ground by a quarterback.

Sunday’s offensive fireworks helped keep Washington throwing more than they may have wanted, but Atlanta cannot rely on scoring 30+ points every week. Even with Penix playing at his best, a young quarterback will have down weeks, and the run defense will need to hold up when the offense can’t bail them out.

5) This team may be okay after all…

Sunday was a step in the right direction. Michael Penix Jr. looked like a franchise quarterback, Bijan Robinson continues to dominate, and Zac Robinson’s play-calling gave the offense the rhythm it desperately needed. But let’s not kid ourselves, the run defense still has holes, and the Falcons will face some of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks on the ground in the weeks ahead.

Even so, there’s a foundation to build on. If Penix can maintain this level of play, Bijan keeps producing at this pace, and the defense tightens up, Atlanta could be more than “just okay.”

They might finally be a team that can make you sit up and take notice every week. Sunday was a statement, but the real question is whether they can follow it up.

I guess we’re going to have to wait an extra week to find out.