“Arm’s length” – Chelsea’s positive spin on dodgy 0.85xG stat

Chelsea beat Benfica on Tuesday after a gritty game which wasn’t pleasant to watch for anyone.

The away side were in control in the early stages. They had a lot more familiarity than Chelsea, who had half a team thrown together as injuries and fitness concerns harmed Enzo Maresca’s Plan A.

Chelsea dig deep – but don’t look comfortable

But against the run of play, the Blues took the lead. They then had to just dig and make the game ugly in the second half to secure a win. They managed it, but they didn’t look like a confident team playing a game out and looking for chances to finish the game off on the counter. They looked nervy and creaky and didn’t offer anything in attack once they were ahead.

At times they were really running down the clock like they were the lesser away team about to steal a win against the big boys. In the circumstances, getting a win was all that mattered. But long term, we’ll have to do a lot better.

Bold claims about Chelsea competence don’t ring true

Jose Mourinho watches at Stamford Bridge. (Photo by Mateo Villalba Sanchez/Getty Images)

The Chelsea website has just put out a piece looking at the stats from the game, and of course they have a positive spin on it.

They note that Benfica had an xG of “just” 0.85, which would be  a lot impressive if we had managed a bit more xG ourselves.

“The visitors had nine shots during the game and three of those (with a combined xG of 0.31) came before the only goal,” they added.

“Five of the remaining six efforts were in the 83rd minute or later, testament to our ability to keep Benfica at arm’s length while we led.”

If they had 5 of their 9 efforts after 83 minutes, that hardly makes it sound like they were at “arm’s length”, it sounds like they were pressing to equalise…