WNBA finals 2025 predictions: Las Vegas or Phoenix? Our writers make their picks

The Aces are here because ...

… of A’ja Wilson. The first WNBA four-time MVP ended the regular season on a dominant run that has somehow only gotten better in the playoffs. She closed out the Fever series with a 35-point performance that was a block and steal away from also being a rare 5x5 stat line. Jakub Frankowicz

... they rediscovered their defensive identity. After the record 111-58 loss to Minnesota that dropped them to 14-14, the Aces rattled off 16 straight wins to close out the regular season without conceding more than 86 points in a game. Notably, that dramatic shift in form coincided with Kierstan Bell moving into the starting five in place of Jewell Loyd, who has thrived coming off the bench. Bryan Armen Graham

Related: No one comes to watch the referees. But in the WNBA, they’re the story | Bryan Armen Graham

… they fought for it. This is a team that everyone saw crashing out for most of the season, a team that came back from a morally draining 53-point loss, and a team that seemingly just had to flip a switch to start winning. They’ve been on the brink of elimination twice – first with the Storm, then the Fever – and battled back each time. Stephanie Kaloi

… Chelsea Gray appears to have fully bounced back from last year’s foot injury. The offense hasn’t missed a beat with her running the point and new addition Jewell Loyd making timely contributions off the ball. There’s another player – checks notes – A’ja something or other. I understand she’s been a bright spot for the team, too. Andrew Lawrence

… honestly, I’m not sure. When I made my playoff predictions, I didn’t expect much from the Aces. They’ve often looked disconnected, lacking chemistry on the court. Still, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young keep dragging them through; Wilson hasn’t won four MVPs by accident. Even so, I’m surprised. I’ve seen them drop games to weaker teams and scrape by against top-tier opponents.Tiana Randall

The Mercury are here because ...

… of strong team defense. The Mercury have registered the best defense rating in the playoffs, led by perpetual MVP contender Alyssa Thomas. But nobody in their rotation is a slouch defensively. They are going to need to keep up the intensity if they hope to slow down the Aces. JF

… they reinvented themselves on the fly, replacing departed legends with veterans Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and DeWanna Bonner, who delivered in big moments. Backed by Mat Ishbia’s deep investment and a state-of-the-art practice facility, second-year coach Nate Tibbetts molded them into resilient road warriors who knocked off New York and top-seeded Minnesota. BAG

… they’re tough as all get-out. Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper always had potential to play together as well as they are right now, the team is fully healthy, and they’ve completely embraced the underdog mentality. They’re playing like they can’t lose, and it’s starting to feel like they’re absolutely correct. SK

… Alyssa Thomas took out Naphessa Collier while gambling on a steal during the semi-finals. Also: Thomas has been brilliant all season and so has Nate Tibbetts about squeezing productive minutes out of all 12 women on the roster. (I guess that’s why they pay him the big bucks.) Lastly: I had them as my surprise team going into the season! AL

… they play harder and tougher than any other team. Watching the Mercury against teams like the Liberty and Lynx, their physicality stands out. The coach stays composed under pressure, even when trailing late. Alyssa Thomas drives the pace with relentless aggression, while Satou Sabally’s smooth, versatile game – effective both on the wing and in the paint – gives them a crucial edge.. TR

Is Napheesa Collier right that the WNBA has the ‘worst leadership in the world’?

It’s definitely in the bottom half of leagues. It hurts the WNBA that Cathy Engelbert comes from outside the sports world. When they chose commissioners, the NFL, NBA and MLB picked from within, while NHL and MLS selected from other leagues. The NBA stake in the league also means the league experiences influence outside those involved in day-to-day operations. JF

Sort of. Collier’s critique reflects widespread frustration with officiating and structural shortcomings in resources. While “worst in the world” is hyperbolic, the league’s leadership has been reactive rather than proactive, especially on refereeing quality and player welfare. Collier’s comments underline that players feel unheard in a league enjoying historic growth but uneven governance. BAG

I am not quite sure I would go that far, as there are quite a few poorly managed professional leagues around the world, but I absolutely agree with what Collier said and that it’s time for change. The WNBA has seen extraordinary growth this season, and needs extraordinary leadership to guide the league as a whole into the next chapter. SK

The world might be strong, given these “uncertain times”. But in the sports world? It’s hard to pin the W’s decades-long mismanagement on an executive who’s only been in the job for six years. But given that Engelbert’s era represents the highest inflection point on the W’s growth curve to date, her particular brand of consultancy-flavored leadership leaves much to be desired. AL

No. If these accusations keep surfacing – directly or through players and coaches – it’s hard not to see truth in them. When stars openly say the league’s schedule is burning them out and risking their health, that speaks volumes. Add grueling back-to-backs, poor officiating and low pay, and Engelbert’s alleged “grateful” comment feels out of touch. Poor leadership, yes – but not the world’s worst. TR

The coaching advantage goes to ...

The Aces and Becky Hammon. While Nate Tibbetts deserves a lot of credit for leading a team that is starting three players who joined the Mercury this year to a finals appearance, Becky Hammon has a winning pedigree in admittedly 4 years that is tough to pick against.. JF

Becky Hammon holds the edge. Her NBA-informed schemes and championship pedigree give the Aces a tactical backbone. She has proven adept at adjusting mid-series and managing stars. While Nate Tibbetts has energized Phoenix with pace and defensive buy-in, Hammon’s Finals experience and ability to manipulate matchups tilt this category. BAG

Without a doubt, Becky Hammon. Nate Tibbets has done an incredible job all season, and in many (many) ways surprised many of us with just how successful this team has been, but the Finals are a different kind of beast and Tibbets hasn’t been in the tranches like Hammon has. She lives and breathes exactly this kind of basketball cinema. SK

I’ll take Big Shot Becky with everything on the line any day, especially when she’s got No22 on the block. AL

Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts stays composed and focused every game, clearly in tune with the action. He’s built a versatile, supportive roster whose execution reflects his influence. From crisp screens to sharp court vision, the team’s seamless play underscores the effectiveness of his coaching. TR

Unheralded player to watch ...

Natasha Mack, Phoenix. She is likely to receive a lot of time guarding A’ja Wilson. How she is able to perform and if she can state out foul trouble will dictate if the Mercury can enforce their will in games, or if they have to adapt to counter Wilson’s dominance. JF

Kiah Stokes, Las Vegas. She doesn’t fill highlight reels, but her rim protection and offensive rebounding are critical in slowing Phoenix’s frontcourt. If she can stay out of foul trouble and control second-chance opportunities, she could swing pivotal stretches. BAG

Natasha Mack, Phoenix. There are a lot of players putting in powerhouse seasons in 2025, but Mack is playing very strong basketball. She’s a great offensive rebounder and the Mercury have only benefitted since she’s been added to the starting lineup. She always seems to know where to be and exactly when she needs to be there. SK

Dana Evans, Las Vegas. A former sixth player of the year top finisher, Evans is playing great off the bench once again, with her regular-season averages rising to seven points and three assists. Her efficiency in relief and chemistry with Wilson and Jackie Young ... and kept Gray fresh for crunch time. AL

Kahleah Copper, Phoenix. Copper is the kind of player any team would want: finding her spots, setting screens, moving the ball and creating space for teammates. She’s one of the league’s most underrated talents, shaped by veteran Diana Taurasi, and always worth watching. TR

The finals MVP will be ...

Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix. She has posted nearly a triple double for the entirety of the playoffs, with extraordinary averages of 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists, and her defense has been high level as well. JF

A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas. Fresh off winning a record fourth regular-season MVP trophy, the Aces’ do-everything forward enters locked in offensively while anchoring the defense. Her versatility will allow Hammon to exploit Phoenix’s mismatches inside and out. If Las Vegas claim the title, Wilson’s impact on both ends ensures she’ll collect a second WNBA finals MVP trophy. BAG

Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix. She’s put in arguably the strongest season of her career and was touted as a potential WNBA MVP for most of the season. When the Mercury has struggled, it’s never been because of her, and she’s shown all season that if her team trusts her, she will lead them right where they want to go. SK

A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas. At this point they might as well rename the trophy in her honor. AL

A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas. It’s rare for a player on the losing side to win WNBA finals MVP, but I predict Wilson will. She didn’t dominate this season in points or records, yet her in-season MVP shows the pull of her game and name. A four-time MVP already, she carries unmatched weight in women’s basketball. TR

The winner will be ...

Phoenix in six. The Aces problem is their depth, and they’ve played two full-length series to get here. They’ve needed A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray to be remarkable every night. Look for the Mercury’s rotation to beat out the Aces stars, especially as the series continues on. JF

Las Vegas in six. The Mercury’s grit and Thomas’s relentless play will earn them a couple of wins, but the Aces’ balance of star power, depth and championship poise should prevail. Wilson, Young and Gray simply provide too many answers, keeping Las Vegas atop the WNBA once again. BAG

Phoenix in seven. The Mercury rebuilt following Taurasi’s retirement and BG’s departure, clearly put in the work to play well together, and have demonstrated the ability to stay cool no matter where they’re playing. They’ve been better defensively and more efficient all season, and a fully healthy Phoenix Mercury is an eye-wateringly scary foe. As long as Sabally, Thomas and Copper are hitting shots, the series is theirs. SK

Las Vegas in six. The Mercury make a valiant effort, but in the end the Aces are simply too strong, too deep and too experienced to be denied. With three titles in four years and four finals trips in five, the dynasty is back on and the Aces reclaim their rightful place as the league’s premier franchise in word and deed. The only thing that could really slow their momentum next season is a work stoppage, which could well be in the offing if the players keep grumbling about the state of play. AL

Phoenix in seven. The Mercury’s intensity and perseverance make them a tough out, and if they win, it’ll take all seven games. Alyssa Thomas has been outstanding: worthy of MVP consideration, even if overlooked. Long disrespected, she summed it up best herself: “I think I’ve been so disrespected in my career that it doesn’t bother me anymore.” TR