Colorado prepares for a tough battle with TCU.
After a frustrating 24-21 loss at home to BYU, Colorado heads into their third conference game sitting at 2–3 (0–2) and facing what might be their toughest matchup of the season so far. The Buffs will travel to Fort Worth for a Saturday evening showdown against 3–1 TCU, who’s fresh off a three-point road loss to Arizona State and already looking like a legitimate Big 12 contender.
TCU handled SMU two weeks ago, and even with a loss to ASU, they’ve shown plenty of balance on offense and have the kind of weapons that give Colorado’s defense trouble. If the Buffs want to turn their season around, this would be the time to do it.
What needs to happen for Colorado:
Buffs fans are reaching the point where we can truly understand the offense’s limitations this season. Quarterback Kaidon Salter’s top-notch athleticism is fun to watch, but hasn’t always led to a good result, and the playcalling from offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur hasn’t done him any favors. Although fans may not like to hear this, I truly do still believe Salter gives the Buffs the best chance to win this season. While Salter might not be a top-tier talent, but his gifts compliment this offense the best and he is the most comfortable and reliable guy of the group.
As is, CU’s offense is capable of scoring 20+ points in a conference game, but I don’t see many 30+ point games for Colorado in the future, regardless of who is at QB. The Buffs have been seriously limited this year, and without new personnel or playcalling, don’t expect much to change. Look to see if the Buffs look to new schemes as they try to exploit a TCU defense that has had some holes at times. We saw CU experiment with motion last weekend, so keep an eye out if that trend continues against the Frogs.
If the Buffs are going to score, they are going to need to exploit TCU’s defensive line. The Frog’s edge rushers score a subpar 67 or less pass rush grade, according to PFF. Salter should have time to throw, and I still have full confidence that this wide receiver unit can be exceptional. If Shrumur can help Salter and this offense is prepared to fish for the right looks pre-snap, Colorado should be able to score some big plays over the top.
The more important piece for Colorado to win this game is the defense. TCU’s offense is one of best and most explosive in the Big 12, and the CU’s defense might need to play their best ball of the season, which all starts with stopping the run. Too often, this defense is getting gashed on early downs, which forces them into predictable coverages. When the opposing offense knows what is coming, that’s a recipe for long, sustained drives that chew clock, leading the defense to get worn down. It’s what happened against BYU, Houston and Georgia Tech for Colorado..
The front seven is going to need to step up, but the pressure really lands on the secondary, which has been stretched thin all season. This week, I wrote an in-depth piece, detailing the personnel and struggles for the secondary. Check it out here.
What to expect from the Horned Frogs:
TCU enters Saturday’s matchup with one of the more well-rounded offenses in the conference. They’ve scored 35 or more points in three of their four games, and that starts with how well they run the ball.
They don’t have a workhorse, but they have a committee that gets the job done. Kevorian Barnes leads the way with 156 yards on just 21 carries, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne are both over 4.5 yards per carry and have combined for four touchdowns. Quarterback Josh Hoover has added another 48 yards on the ground himself. There’s no single dominant guy, but this backfield gets it done efficiently, and that’s what opens up the rest of their game. At the very least, the Buffs can look forward to facing a team who doesn’t have a proficient runner at QB, as they’ve been gashed by mobile signal callers all season.
Through the air, Hoover has proven himself to be one of the nation’s most underrated QBs. He’s thrown for 1,242 yards in just four games with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, completing nearly 67 percent of his passes. His 9.2 yards per attempt speaks to how often they’re getting chunk plays. TCU coach Sonny Dykes has come to really trust his junior QB, and has let him unleash the dragon. If CU’s secondary can’t figuring things out in Fort Worth, they’re gonna be in big trouble.
Hoover has weapons at receiver too. Jordan Dwyer leads the team with 299 yards on 20 catches, and Joseph Manjack IV isn’t far behind with 236. But the real mismatch problem is Eric McAlister. He has just 13 catches for 320 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a big play waiting to happen and someone the Buffs will have to account for on every snap.
This is exactly the kind of offense that’s given Colorado problems: balanced, efficient, and capable of taking shots downfield when defenses overcommit to the run. If the Buffs can’t slow down early-down runs, they’re going to see a heavy dose of play action and one-on-ones on the outside.
Prediction
TCU does everything Colorado struggles to stop. They run the ball efficiently, create explosive plays off of play action, and don’t need to rely on one guy to carry the load. On defense, they’re not dominant, but they don’t need to be against Colorado’s inconsistent offense.
CU’s offense has shown flashes, but unless the Buffs find a new gear on that side of the ball, they’ll be fighting uphill again. This is simply a unit with too many issues. You can’t rely on them to run up the score in these conference games without some help from the defense or coaching staff.
That said, I don’t think TCU runs away with it. Colorado tends to play hard even when things aren’t going right, and Salter is still enough of a playmaker to keep things interesting. I’ve got TCU winning by double digits, but Colorado covering the 13.5 point spread.
Final Score:
Colorado 24
TCU 34
Category: General Sports
