SEC projections, predictions for rest of 2025 season: These 5 teams will make the CFP

SEC projections, predictions for rest of 2025 season: These 5 teams will make the CFP originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

We'll see if the SEC learned from the 2024 college football season.  

It will take 10 wins to be a virtual lock to make the College Football Playoff out of the SEC and Big Ten. In 2024, three nine-win SEC teams were left out. That could be the case again in 2025.

Sporting News projected the rest of the SEC season – which is subject to change given the wild and unpredictable nature of the race so far. Yet if our scenario unfolds, then there will be five SEC teams with 10 wins. Those will be the teams that make the College Football Playoff. 

MORE: College Football Playoff projections after Week 6

Entering Week 7, there are nine ranked teams in the SEC in No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 5 Texas A&M, No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 8 Alabama, No. 10 Georgia, No. 11 LSU, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 14 Missouri and No. 20 Vanderbilt. Two-loss Texas was knocked out last week. With apologies to South Carolina and Mississippi State, we are projecting 10 teams to have eight wins or more at the end of the regular season. We have two nine-win teams just outside the CFP. 

How does that race shape up? Sporting News projects the rest of the SEC race among those nine schools.

MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 7's Top 25 games

SEC playoff teams in 2025 

1. No. 8 Alabama (4-1, 2-0) 

Projected finish: 11-1, 8-0 SEC 

Lowdown: The Crimson Tide won't be an underdog the rest of the season. Tennessee (Oct. 18), LSU (Nov. 8) and Oklahoma (Nov. 15) all visit Bryant-Denny Stadium, and the only road game against a ranked team is this week against Missouri. The Crimson Tide split the last four meetings at Auburn (Oct. 29) – and it's Kalen DeBoer's first time at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That is not a layup.

Game that could throw this off: at No. 14 Missouri (Oct. 11). The Tigers are one of four unbeaten teams remaining, and this is arguably the biggest home game for Missouri since it joined the SEC. Lose here, and the DeBoer road woes narrative returns.

MORE: Alabama's Ty Simpson playing like a Heisman QB 

2. No. 10 Georgia (4-1, 2-1)

Projected finish: 11-1, 7-1 SEC 

Lowdown: The Bulldogs also should be favored in every remaining game. Georgia has two ranked teams left on the schedule – including a monster matchup against Ole Miss (Oct. 18) and the regular-season finale against No. 13 Georgia Tech (Nov. 28). The Rebels beat the Bulldogs 28-10 last season, and the Yellow Jackets took Georgia to eight overtimes in a 44-42 thriller. Georgia also has a home game against Texas (Nov. 15). 

Game that could throw this off: Ole Miss (Nov. 15). The Rebels handled Georgia last season – and a loss there could leave Georgia out of the SEC championship game for the first time since 2020. 

3. No. 4 Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0)

Projected finish: 11-1, 7-1 SEC 

Lowdown: Trinidad Chambliss has blossomed into a Heisman Trophy candidate, and Lane Kiffin should be able to get this team to the 10-win mark necessary to leave no doubt for the College Football Playoff committee. That matchup against Georgia should determine whether the Rebels can make the SEC championship game for the first time in school history. 

Game that could throw this off: at No. 6 Oklahoma (Oct. 25). John Mateer should be back, and the Sooners are 15-2 at home since 2023. It's the loss that kept Alabama out of the College Football Playoff last season.

4. No. 5 Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0)

Projected finish: 10-2, 6-2 SEC 

Lowdown: This is the scenario Notre Dame fans are hoping doesn't happen knowing the Aggies beat the Irish 41-40 on Sept. 13. This even builds in potential road losses to LSU (Oct. 25) and Texas (Nov. 28) – and we're not sure Texas A&M will be underdogs in both of those games. The Aggies do not have to play Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss or Tennessee. Will that scheduling quirk come under scrutiny? 

Game that could throw this off: at Arkansas (Oct. 18). The Aggies have won the last three matchups in this old Southwest Conference rivalry, but it's the perfect spot for the Razorbacks to play spoiler with interim coach Bobby Petrino. 

5. No. 12 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1)

Projected finish: 10-2, 6-2 SEC 

Lowdown: The Vols should be favored in six of their last seven games; with the exception of the trip to Alabama (Oct. 18).  That 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia on Sept. 13 hurt, but Tennessee has a schedule that is set up for another run as an at-large team to the CFP. The Nov. 1 matchup against Oklahoma will be huge for Josh Heupel again. The winner of that game will be a 10-win team. 

Game that could throw this off: at Florida (Nov. 22). Texas found out The Swamp can still be tough, and the Vols have not won in Gainesville since 2003. Vanderbilt also will be itching to break a six-game losing streak to the Volunteers. 

SEC teams just outside the College Football Playoff 

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0)

Projected finish: 9-3, 5-3 SEC 

Lowdown: Is this disrespectful? Maybe, but there are a lot of variables at work for the second half of the season. Will Mateer play this week? If he does, the Sooners will be favored by kickoff. Oklahoma's last five games are against ranked opponents, including games against Ole Miss (Oct. 25), Tennessee (Nov. 1) and Alabama (Nov. 15). The 24-13 victory against No. 15 Michigan will come in handy if Oklahoma can get to nine or 10 wins. 

Game that could throw this off: vs. Texas (Oct. 11). Oklahoma has lost two of the last three meetings to the Longhorns in blowout fashion, and it's tough to get a read on that game with Mateer's status in limbo. 

No. 11 LSU (4-1, 1-1)

Projected finish: 9-3, 5-3 SEC 

Lowdown: LSU should be favored against Vanderbilt (Oct. 18) and Texas A&M (Oct. 25), and we are being a little risky in saying the Tigers will sweep those games. The road trips to Alabama (Nov. 8) and Oklahoma (Nov. 29) are even tougher. That is a lot to ask for a team that has averaged 14.5 points per game against Florida and Ole Miss. 

Game that could throw this off: at Vanderbilt (Oct. 18). We're curious to see what this line will be after the Tigers play South Carolina in Week 7. The Commodores have not beat the Tigers since 1990, but lost by just seven in Baton Rouge a year ago.

SEC teams that will finish with eight wins

Texas (3-2, 0-1)

Projected finish: 8-4, 5-3 SEC 

Lowdown: Is this where the Longhorns will land? Despite the loss to Florida, the Longhorns are still favored in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. The loss to No. 1 Ohio State in the season opener can be forgiven, but Texas still has to play at Georgia (Nov. 15). That is the only game where the Longhorns will be an underdog. 

Game that could throw this off: vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 11). It's that simple. Lose to the Sooners, and Texas could be looking at a four- or perhaps five-loss season after starting the season as the Preseason No. 1. Can Arch Manning get back on track in one of college football's most exciting rivalries? 

No. 14 Missouri (5-0, 1-0)

Projected finish: 8-4, 4-4 SEC 

Lowdown: The Tigers still have four road games left, and the season, but they could be favored in all of those games except Oklahoma (Nov. 22). It's about the home stages against Alabama (Oct. 11) and Texas A&M (Nov. 8). Missouri is 0-4 against the Crimson Tide and Aggies under Eli Drinkwitz. 

Game that could throw this off: at Auburn (Oct. 18). Win or lose, Missouri must prove it can go to Jordan-Hare Stadium and win after the game against the Crimson Tide. Missouri beat Auburn 21-17 last season. 

No. 20 Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1)

Projected finish: 8-4, 4-4 SEC 

Lowdown: Red-zone turnovers were the culprit in a 30-14 loss at Alabama, and the Commodores will be underdogs against LSU (Oct. 18), Texas (Nov. 1) and Tennessee (Nov. 29). The Tigers and Longhorns both rank in the top-10 in scoring defense. The Vols have won the last two meetings against Vanderbilt by an average of 18.5 points per game. 

Game that could throw this off: vs. Missouri (Oct. 25). The Tigers and Commodores are the upstarts in the SEC race, and the Tigers won a 30-27 overtime thriller last season. This game might get the "elimination game" label in the final week of October.