MLB playoffs 2025: The Phillies won a must-win game. Did the Dodgers lose one, too?

LOS ANGELES — However this NLDS plays out — whether the Los Angeles Dodgers hold on or the Philadelphia Phillies stage the comeback of these playoffs — many will point to Kyle Schwarber's 455-foot home run that hurtled through the air and over the right-field pavilion of Dodger Stadium as the turning point.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson certainly did after the game, telling reporters the blast "sort of woke everybody up and got a lot of energy going in the dugout."

It was an enormous home run, yes, one that seemed to fully break the Phillies out of a malaise that had so far cost them two games in the series. However, Schwarber went on to hit a second, less numerically impressive homer, and that one might be just as important because it might as well have gone on the Game 4 scoreboard.

The Phillies' 8-2 Game 3 victory was a thorough beatdown of the Dodgers, who are suddenly in very uneasy territory for a team that entered the divisional round as World Series favorites in Vegas and then went up 2-0, with their best pitcher of the regular season on the mound for Game 3.

You pretty much always want to be the team up 2-1 in a five-game series, but consider the Dodgers' position. Their bullpen is still in tatters; Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday became the latest reliever to lose all reason for trust with a single appearance. They are starting Tyler Glasnow — owner of a career 5.51 postseason ERA — in Game 4 on Thursday, against Phillies Game 1 starter Cristopher Sánchez, who will be on normal rest.

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If the Dodgers lose Game 4 — and the pitching matchup certainly seems to set them up for it — the series goes back to Citizens Bank Park, where it would likely be Shohei Ohtani vs. Jesus Luzardo with all the momentum on the side of the home team.

This was quietly a "better win this one" kind of game for the Dodgers, and they got demolished. 

"Our offense was really good," Thomson said. "We swung the bats, we had good at-bats up and down the lineup, the first four guys in the lineup were, what, 9-for-16. They kept grinding, kept adding on. We had chances in other innings than the innings we scored. They just put pressure on them all night long."

That pressure could end up being vital, as it cost the Dodgers what would have been a significant victory. 

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Entering the eighth inning, Phillies closer Jhoan Duran was warming up for what would've likely been a two-inning save. That's the kind of desperate territory the Phillies were in, needing to use their All-Star closer to ensure a combined seven-inning, one-run effort from Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez didn't go to waste.

"We're going to deploy all weapons at any time," Schwarber said afterward. "These are obviously must-win games. There's going to be no bullets being left. We're going to use everything that we have to try to win baseball games here because it's win or go home."

Thomson admitted to reporters after the game that had Duran gone two innings Wednesday, he would have been available for only one inning, if any, on Thursday after throwing four innings across the first three game of the series. Given how shaky the Phillies' bullpen has been, not having Duran for Game 4 would've taken an enormous weapon out of Thomson's hands.

Instead, the Dodgers let Clayton Kershaw stay in the game for his own two-inning appearance. His first inning was shaky enough, with the first two batters reaching base and the Dodgers needing a bad baserunning error to get their second out. His second inning lived up to all the pejoratives that come with "Playoff Kershaw."

J.T. Realmuto led off the inning with a homer. 4-1 Phillies.

Max Kepler walked, and Nick Castellanos reached base on an error. Then they both scored on a Trea Turner single after advancing on a sacrifice bunt. 6-1 Phillies.

And then Schwarber delivered the knockout blow, clubbing a two-run homer to pass New York Yankees legend Bernie Williams for third on MLB's all-time postseason home run list. 8-1 Phillies.

Suddenly, Duran wasn't needed in Game 3. The Phillies rested him, and it now seems like he and Sánchez could be the only pitchers used on Thursday if the latter's start goes well. Even Dodgers manager Dave Roberts conceded the opportunity lost in that eighth inning, remarking he "would have loved to get Duran in the game."

The Dodgers ultimately let Kershaw, their all-time strikeout leader, three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer, wear it. His career postseason ERA now sits at 4.75, and it might remain there forever. He certainly didn't give the Dodgers any reason to use him again in this series, which will be the final one of Kershaw's career should Los Angeles lose its next two games.

"He just didn't have a great slider tonight," Roberts said. "I think Clayton pitches off his slider. When the slider's not there ... And then the fastball command, he was working behind, too. Just the command wasn't there tonight."

Kershaw agreed.

"I was battling command," he said. "It's hard when you're trying to throw strikes as opposed to get people out. Just wasn't a fun inning."

Obviously, all is not lost for the Dodgers, but worrying signs have built up over the course of three games, even while they won two of them. Most notable is the status of Ohtani, the hitter, who is now 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts on the series.

The Phillies have thrown plenty of talented lefties at him — Sánchez, Suarez, Game 2 starter Jesus Luzardo, setup man Matt Strahm — but Ohtani hit .279/.344/.554 against southpaws in the regular season. He's not supposed to be a hitter you can shut down with platoon advantages.

Of course, as Thomson noted, all of that can change quickly.

"I really don't want to comment on that because, I mean, he can explode at any time," he said. "He's that great of a hitter. But we have pitched him well."

Without Ohtani mashing — and with Will Smith and Tommy Edman nursing injuries — this L.A. lineup becomes a lot less dangerous, and the degree of difficulty could only go up from here. We are still two steps from full disaster for the Dodgers, but this is a team that has been defined by losing on shorter odds in 2025.

"It's going to be hard," Phillies shortstop Trea Turner said. "It's a great team over there. They've got plenty of superstars, good players, great pitching. And we'll have to play our best to do it, but it starts tomorrow, and today was a good start."