Misery Index: Florida State is underachieving under Mike Norvell for one simple reason

The rise of Florida State as a national power under Bobby Bowden did not rely on a complicated formula. It was, quite simply, one of the most relentless recruiting machines college football has ever seen, leveraging FSU’s location near talent hotbeds in Florida and Georgia while building an environment where iconoclast personalities could thrive and be themselves.

In many ways, Jimbo Fisher repeated that feat in 2013 when the Seminoles returned to national championship glory, assembling one of the most talented rosters in recent college football history.

While success in this sport always correlates with talent to some degree, there are realistically only 10 to 15 programs that can recruit at a truly elite level because of their natural advantages.

Florida State is one of those jobs. But Mike Norvell has not been one of those coaches who can take advantage of it.

When diagnosing what’s wrong with the current iteration of Florida State, which has now lost 10 of its last 11 ACC games after Saturday’s disaster at home against Pittsburgh, you don’t need to look very far.

Since Day 1 of his tenure, the Seminoles under Norvell have only been mediocre or slightly better in recruiting high school talent, forcing them to rely heavily on the transfer portal, which has resulted in a team of hit-or-miss vagabonds that don't seem invested in much of anything at this point.

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What started as a promising season with a win over Alabama has now turned into a huge blemish on the résumé of a Crimson Tide team that has crawled back into national title contention. Meanwhile, after Florida State lost a tough one on a Friday night against Virginia a couple weeks ago, its immediate response was to fall behind 28-3 at home to Miami and then lose 34-31 to a Pitt team that’s nobody’s idea of a powerhouse.

Earlier this summer, the FSU-oriented Tomahawk Nation blog did an in-depth analysis on Norvell’s high school recruiting, and the results weren’t pretty. In the 2021-2024 recruiting classes, it identified just a handful of high-level starters, some decent depth pieces and a lot more busts than a program like Florida State should tolerate.

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Then again, that’s not a huge surprise when you look at the numbers. On3 ranked Norvell’s classes 21st (2021), 23rd (2022), 22nd (2023) and 12th (2024).

Granted, recruiting is different now in the NIL/revenue share era than in the old days when it was just Bowden trying to close a deal in momma’s living room, but its fundamental importance is the same.

If you’re not stacking four- and five-star prospects at a place like Florida State, you’re not doing the job correctly. And while Norvell navigated the portal beautifully to build a College Football Playoff-worthy team in 2023 before the horrific injury to quarterback Jordan Travis, the relative recruiting mediocrity has come home home to roost.

Sure, Florida State still out-recruits the likes of Pittsburgh and other teams in the ACC it isn’t beating these days. But the goal in Tallahassee isn’t to win the ACC, it’s national championships. They aren’t even close.

As a result, we’re about to find out just how much pain the Seminoles are willing to tolerate.

Because getting rid of Norvell will not be easy. Thanks to Alabama’s flirtations after Nick Saban retired, agent Jimmy Sexton secured an eight-year contract extension worth about $10 million per year. If they fired him, Norvell would be owed 85 percent of what’s left on his contract, which will be more than $50 million after this season.

Outside of Texas A&M paying Jimbo Fisher’s $77.5 million buyout, nobody in college sports has come close to doing something so financially disastrous. And FSU doesn’t have A&M-level resources to begin with.

Given how dramatically Florida State has sunk, it’s hard to see how Norvell comes back in 2026 without a fan mutiny. But can the school swallow that much dead money? Navigating that mystery with half of a wasted season left to play explains why Florida State reigns as America’s most miserable fan base in Week 7.

Conference Champions of Misery

Big Ten: It’s become a DEFCON 2 situation at Penn State, which is the state of alert defined as “next step to nuclear war.” No, the Misery Index does not recommend taking potassium iodide pills or seeking underground shelter because we are only talking about football, after all. But few things other than a real nuclear event would surpass the level of Penn State panic we’re going to see after 22-21 loss to Northwestern in which senior quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending leg injury. To be clear, both the game and Penn State’s season were effectively over when Allar got hurt, which in a way makes the situation even more dire. After last week’s meltdown loss at UCLA, James Franklin could not even motivate his team to play hard against an opponent it should beat by three touchdowns. That’s concerning because it suggests a locker room that has completely checked out of this season. Look out below.

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Big 12: Since moving up from the American, UCF has generally had an excuse for losing 13 out of its 18 conference games. It takes time to build up a roster for power conference football. But does that apply when you’re playing teams that made the exact same move? The Knights’ 20-11 loss to Cincinnati not only dropped them to 0-3 in the Big 12, it’s the second straight year they’ve failed to beat their longtime conference mates. It’s also not a great look for Scott Frost’s second act as the UCF coach. Despite his crashout at Nebraska, UCF had good feelings for Frost because of the 2017 season when he led the program to a 13-0 record and a win over Auburn in the Peach Bowl, which led UCF to declare itself national champions. The fans there remember an unstoppable offense, but so far the Knights have failed to score more than 20 points in any of their three league games. It’s hard to blame that on the Big 12 transition when Cincinnati was in the exact same position and has handled it significantly better.

SEC: Last fall, South Carolina finished the season so strong it thought it deserved to be in the playoff. With quarterback LaNorris Sellers coming back this year, Gamecocks fans thought they would be in the playoff. But before the middle of October, we already know they will not come close to meeting those expectations. At 3-3, it’s fair to call South Carolina one of the nation’s most disappointing teams and their last chance to change the narrative ended in a 20-10 loss at LSU. So what now? With four straight games coming up against ranked teams, nothing gets easier. And head coach Shane Beamer will have to evaluate whether he might need to make a move in the offseason and get ahead of the heat that will come his way in 2026 if South Carolina struggles again. Because as fun as this team was to watch last year, this version has been a real slog. It’s fair to wonder whether the departure of offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, now the head coach at Appalachian State, has contributed to the lack of explosiveness we’re seeing this year under coordinator Mike Shula.

Group of Six: Michael Desormeaux played quarterback at Louisiana 20 years ago and was an assistant there for six seasons before becoming the head coach in 2022. So he knows not only that expectations are high in Lafayette but that those expectations are reasonable because he oversees a program with significantly greater resources than most in the Sun Belt. That doesn’t mean you have to win the conference every year, but you can’t be an also-ran. And right now, Louisiana looks like a program significantly underperforming what it’s supposed to be after a 24-14 loss to James Madison. Desormeaux’s Sun Belt record is now an uninspiring 15-11, and at 2-4 this season he’s in danger of finishing with a losing record for the third time in four years. That doesn’t work when his predecessor, Billy Napier, went 27-5 in the Sun Belt. Louisiana invests too much not to regularly contend for conference titles.

Headset Misery

Brent Venables: His predecessor, Lincoln Riley, was 5-1 against Texas. Bob Stoops led Oklahoma to an 11-7 record against the Longhorns. Now here’s Venables, who has lost three of four in the Red River Rivalry and didn’t score a touchdown in any of those losses. Does anyone think Oklahoma fans are here for that kind of futility in the biggest game on the schedule? Sure, things are different now that both teams play in the SEC. There are better opponents and more high-leverage opportunities throughout the year compared to the Big 12 where that game often decided conference championships. But Oklahoma’s latest 23-6 loss, in which it generated just 258 yards of offense, introduces the smell of a rotting carcass to their 5-1 record. With upcoming games against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, it’ll be tough to find deodorant.

Jonathan Smith: Born in Pasadena and raised not far from the Rose Bowl, there was some thought within the coaching industry that UCLA’s coaching search could potentially provide Smith with an escape hatch from an awkward and ill-fitting situation at Michigan State. But if you’re the Bruins, how can you even consider hiring someone that your interim coaching staff just destroyed 38-13? Smith seemed like a solid hire for Michigan State two years ago in a total rebuilding situation after his turnaround job at Oregon State, but he now sits 3-9 in the Big Ten and doesn’t even have a marquee win that Spartans fans can hang their hopes on. Smith went to Michigan State, in part, because the Pac-12 imploded and also for the challenge of seeing how he’d fit outside the West Coast. So far, he’s fit about as well as a fist through a flute.

DeShaun Foster: Speaking of UCLA, the Misery Index typically does not concern itself with coaches who have already been put out of their professional misery. But in this case, an exception is warranted because the Bruins’ turnaround has been so dramatic since his firing that it’s fair to wonder just what the heck was going on during his tenure? Under Foster, UCLA got blown out by Utah and New Mexico and lost to UNLV. Now they’re scoring loads of points, playing with confidence and could be a spoiler in the Big Ten race. Foster, who had been the Bruins’ running backs coach, was not ready to become the head coach when Chip Kelly abandoned the job, so that part isn’t his fault. But the dramatic difference in UCLA is such an indictment of whatever was going on with Foster at the helm that it’s probably hurt his prospects of getting another head coaching gig.

Sherrone Moore: It’s hard enough under the best of circumstances to be the coach at Michigan. But his current circumstances include a freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who is on this roster in part because of a sports commentator who broadcasts every criticism of Moore’s play-calling to his 3.7 million followers on X/Twitter. Of course, we are talking about Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy, who was a significant contributor to the NIL package that helped Michigan land Underwood. Any team starting a freshman in the Big 12 is going to have some ups and downs, and this weeks’ 31-13 loss to USC was undoubtedly a rough moment. Underwood didn’t play great (15-for-24, 207 yards, two TDs, one INT) and Michigan got roughed up pretty good. But it can’t help his quality of life when Portnoy’s criticism of the offense being too run-heavy includes comments like “It’s crazy how stupid they are,” “terrible playcalling.” and “they’re so [expletive] predictable it makes me want to scream.”

Hugh Freeze: It was not a banner night for the SEC crew working Auburn-Georgia, and the Tigers might have a gripe with Jackson Arnold’s goal-line fumble not being ruled a touchdown late in the first half. It would have put Auburn ahead 17-0 at home, and that’s a completely different game from the one it ended up losing 20-10. Games, seasons and careers can turn on little moments like that, and Auburn keeps coming up on the short end this year as it struggles to 3-3. Is that bad luck? Karmic retribution for some of the crazy breaks Auburn got a dozen years ago when it made the national title game under Gus Malzahn? Or is it simply the product of Auburn having no margin for error because Freeze has built a disaster of an offense that finished with fewer than 300 yards for the third straight week?

Moments of Misery

Missouri gave up a killer fourth-down conversion: The Tigers’ best chance to beat Alabama would have been getting the ball back down 20-17 with a little more than five minutes to go. They had Alabama in an awkward position at the Mizzou 38-yard line, facing fourth-and-8. Credit to Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer for going for it and to quarterback Ty Simpson for laying a beautiful 29-yard rainbow into the arms of Lotzeir Brooks. But it wasn’t too much to ask for the Tigers to make that play, and they simply couldn’t. Alabama got a well-deserved 27-24 road win.

Air Force got a brutal beat in Vegas: The end of UNLV’s 51-48 win over Air Force was wild. After Air Force took the lead with 1:13 remaining, UNLV responded with a six-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that took just 37 seconds off the clock — and almost left the Falcons too much time. Air Force quickly used six plays to get all the way down to UNLV’s 23, setting up a 40-yard field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. But instead, Jacob Medina missed the kick and Air Force’s worst season in a long time continues. At 1-5, the Falcons are on a similar path to 2013 when they went 2-10 and went winless in the Mountain West.

Maryland called the wrong play at the wrong time: The Terps had all the momentum against Nebraska entering the fourth quarter, leading 31-24 and driving into Husker territory. Coming out of the quarter break, they had a mere third-and-2. If they converted on either third or fourth down, they might have scored again and broken the game open. Instead, Nebraska’s defensive end exploded off the left side unblocked and blew up the handoff to Nolan Ray for a 4-yard loss. That forced Maryland to punt, they never sniffed another scoring opportunity and the Huskers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:08 left to rip their hearts out.