Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction, scouting report in NFL Week 6

Detroit Lions (4-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

Fast facts: 8:20 p.m. ET; Oct. 12; GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri; NBC; WXYT-FM 97.1.

Line: Chiefs by 2½.

The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (48-36-1 overall, 43-29-1 with Lions); Chiefs — Andy Reid (275-149-1 overall, 145-56 with Chiefs).

Last meeting: Sept. 7, 2023; Lions won 21-20.

Key matchups

Dan Campbell vs. Andy Reid

It's a classic sports story — the jock against the nerd, brains against brawn, grit against glasses. Except Lions coach Dan Campbell got rid of his meathead reputation long ago, turning into one of the NFL's most formidable tacticians among some of the most creative football minds the league has ever seen.

But Chiefs coach Andy Reid's reputation of being a super nerd? That's still true, unfortunately for the Lions.

Reid is without question one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. His 275 wins put him fourth on the all-time list, and his .648 career winning percentage lands him above coaching legends like Bill Belichick (.647), Joe Gibbs (.621) and Tom Landry (.607). That's not to mention those six Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl rings, which is three more than the Lions have in their history. So, how does a relative newbie like Campbell counter arguably his most challenging matchup of the 2025 season?

Campbell had the element of surprise on his side the last time the Lions faced the Chiefs, which turned into a season-opening 21-20 road victory against the defending Super Bowl champions in 2023 — well before the Lions had firmly established themselves among the top tier of NFL teams. He won't have that advantage this time around, with just about everybody in the league now understanding how good the Lions are at this point.

What Campbell does have, however, is a more talented roster than Reid has. The Chiefs have some old dudes on offense, an underperforming defense and some of the lowest vibes surrounding a Super Bowl hopeful outside of Baltimore. Which means Campbell doesn't necessarily have to outcoach Reid to win, as long as the Lions keep doing what they've been doing on both sides of the ball.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lions linebackers

Quick: Which Chiefs' player leads the team in rushing yards?

If you were trying to recall which running backs the Chiefs employ these days, no need to worry. The answer is their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, who has more rushing yards this season (190) than even Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (166) and is on pace to smash his career high.

For years, Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard was adamant that employing a spy against a mobile quarterback didn't work in the NFL. And while he didn't exactly credit the spy tactic for the Lions holding Jackson to just 35 rushing yards on seven carries in their Week 3 win against the Ravens, he didn't dismiss it, either.

Basically, expect Lions linebackers like Trevor Nowaske and Derrick Barnes to keep a close eye on Mahomes.

That's not going to be an easy task, of course. Mahomes is one of the greatest QBs in NFL history for a reason, and even if he can't extend drives with his legs he'll likely find opportunities through the air. But if Detroit's linebackers can make Mahomes think twice about taking off, that might give the Lions some needed pressure relief on the defensive side.

Scouting report

Lions offense vs. Chiefs defense

Going into their game against the Chiefs, the Lions are going to answer the same question it was asked during last week's win over the Bengals: How is the offense going to look without Taylor Decker at left tackle?

The answer last week with Gio Manu as Decker's replacement was "good enough." The second-year Manu struggled in his first career start, but the Lions found ways to overcome Cincinnati's pressure, partly thanks to Lions quarterback Jared Goff finding quick connections with tight end Sam LaPorta.

Kansas City's defense is a bit more formidable than Cincinnati's, however.

Star defensive tackle Chris Jones, now in his 10th season with the team, has been limited to one sack and seven tackles in five starts this season, but the Chiefs have found quality elsewhere. Namely in defensive end George Karlaftis, the 24-year-old defensive end with 3½ sacks already on the season, and All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, who leads the team with six passes defended.

If there's any place Kansas City's defense is vulnerable, however, it's in stopping the run. The Chiefs are 20th in the NFL allowing 123.4 rushing yards per game, while the Lions are currently seventh in the NFL in rushing yards per game (134.8). That's great news for running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who have eight rushing touchdowns (four each) between them in 2025. Expect to see a lot of running plays from Detroit on what could be a hot Kansas City night.

Lions defense vs. Chiefs offense

The Chiefs lost on Monday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the offense showed much more precision than it had all year, putting up season highs in passing yards (318) and rushing yards (158) in what looked to be total domination from the offensive side.

In other words, the Chiefs offense that has enthralled NFL fans for the last decade may be back.

And in more words, it's a pretty bad time for the Lions to be so banged up in the secondary.

Already having to put cornerback D.J. Reed on injured reserve, the Lions will also be without starting cornerback Terrion Arnold for a while. That's not to mention both starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, dealing with aching knee and ankle injuries, respectively. It might be a bad time for the Lions pass defense Sunday.

The best way Detroit can combat Kansas City's passing attack is by stopping the run and getting pressure on quarterback Patrick Mahomes, potentially using a spy to prevent him from extending plays and launching the ball downfield to open receivers. Of course, Mahomes out-of-the-pocket is itself a dangerous threat the Lions would like to avoid − so it's possible the Lions' best defense on Sunday will be a really good offense.

Christian Romo's prediction for Lions vs Chiefs

On a neutral field with healthy rosters, this game would be a lot easier to pick with the Lions' roster in better shape than the Chiefs. Unfortunately for the Lions, they'll have to play in Kansas City with a banged-up secondary and questions about their offensive line. That's a great opportunity for Mahomes and the Chiefs to show that they're still Super Bowl contenders despite a sub-.500 record and a heartbreaking Monday-night loss to the Jaguars.

The Lions have been in this position recently, going on the road in prime time against a Baltimore Ravens team many thought was the best in the league. Detroit won that game more easily than many expected they could, and the same thing could very easily happen against a Chiefs team with their three biggest stars on the wrong side of 30.

Ultimately though, a depleted Lions' secondary is going to be the reason Detroit falls short. Detroit's offense will show that it can still play into a shootout, but that's not the type of game you want to get into with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes making the decisions on the other side. The pick: Chiefs 38, Lions 31.

You can reach Christian Romo at [email protected]

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Lions vs Chiefs prediction, scouting report in NFL Week 6