Bijan Robinson has been extremely efficient on the ground to start the season, and we expect the Falcons running back to excel against a leaky Bills run defense.
The first game of Monday Night Football's doubleheader features the Buffalo Bills facing the Atlanta Falcons.
Fresh off a bye week, my Bills vs. Falcons player props expect Bijan Robinson to gash Buffalo on the ground.
Here are my top NFL picks for Monday, October 13.
Bills vs Falcons MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Bijan Robinson | Over 76.5 rushing yards | <<-110>> |
 Josh Allen | Under 226.5 passing yards | <<-110>> |
| Josh Allen | Over 33.5 rushing yards | <<-110>> |
Bijan Robinson Over 76.5 rushing yards
Bijan Robinson is one of the most explosive backs in the league, currently averaging 4.9 yards per carry through four games.
Robinson has produced 4.2 yards after contact per rushing attempt, ranking third among running backs with at least 50 carries this season. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate to running backs and the third-highest yards after contact per carry in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons superstar has gained an average of 7.3 yards after forcing a missed tackle, and Robinson is poised to break off a few long runs on Monday night and surpass this rushing total.
Josh Allen Under 226.5 passing yards
Josh Allen is averaging 243.4 yards per game through the air this season, but a big portion of that comes from yards after the catch.
52.8% percent of Allen’s passing yards have come after the catch, and the Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per extended dropback this season.
Atlanta currently boasts the best passing defense in the NFL, limiting opponents to only 135.0 passing yards per game. While I don’t expect them to keep Allen to that low of a total, they should keep relatively in check on home turf.
Josh Allen Over 33.5 rushing yards
While I like the Falcons to shut down Allen in the passing game, I do believe he will find some room in the run game, especially on scrambles.
The Falcons' defense has generated the seventh-highest pressure rate in the league at 38.7%, yielding 9.4 yards per carry on broken plays.
Allen leads all quarterbacks with 208 scramble rushing yards this season, averaging 9.5 per run when he uses his legs. The reigning league MVP is racking up 42.4 rushing yards per game this season, and this is a great matchup for him to add to that tally.
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Bills vs Falcons MNF prop betting card
- Robinson o76.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Allen u226.5 passing yards (-110)
- Allen o33.5 rushing yards (-110)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Category: Football
