It’s the Third Saturday in October, which means a fantastic weekend of college football and some great rivalry games to
It’s the Third Saturday in October, which means a fantastic weekend of college football and some great rivalry games to boot. The headline for Week 8 is the Tennessee Volunteers versus the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, but there are some other great matchups throughout Saturday’s college football schedule that will have major ramifications on the top 25 rankings.
Let’s dive into our Week 8 college football predictions, delivering picks for the best college football games this weekend.
(17) Vanderbilt Commodores – 27, (10) LSU Tigers – 21
We’re not entirely sure what AP voters have seen from the LSU Tigers that led to them being ranked 10th in the top 25 college football rankings. LSU is 18th in ESPN FPI, behind the Vanderbilt Commodores. While LSU’s defense is playing pretty well this season, Garrett Nussmeier and this Tigers’ offense leave a lot to be desired.
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In terms of a statistical comparison, Vanderbilt’s offense averages 7.6 yards per play and 467.5 yards per game, whereas LSU averages 5.7 yards per play and 373.5 total yards per game. The Commodores also have the second-best offense on third downs (57.9 percent conversion rate), while LSU (41.6 percent) ranks 58th, and there’s a big disparity in terms of first downs (147 to 132).
Pavia (82.5 ESPN QBR) is also outplaying Nussmeier (75.9 QBR) this season, too. LSU’s one hope is that its defense (0.173 points per play, third in FBS) is this team’s one chance of winning on the road, but the disparity in the two teams’ rushing attacks (17th vs. 106th in FBS) will likely swing this in Vanderbilt’s favor.
Read More: Week 8 College Football Rankings, see where Vanderbilt and LSU land
(5) Ole Miss Rebels – 24, (9) Georgia Bulldogs – 21
Since the Georgia Bulldogs aren’t facing Alabama, it should come as no surprise that they’re favored to win at home in Week 8. What’s a bit unexpected is Georgia being a touchdown favorite with 70 percent of people expecting Kirby Smart and Co. to win at Sanford Stadium, given how the Bulldogs’ defense has fared this year.
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Jackson Arnold might’ve only put up 137 passing yards against this Bulldogs’ defense last week, but he missed several ‘open’ downfield throws. Mississippi’s offensive line has been significantly better in pass protection this season than Auburn’s line, and we saw what quarterbacks can do from a clean pocket versus Georgia, as evidenced by Joey Aguilar (371 pass yards, 10.3 ypa, 4-2 TD-INT) and Ty Simpson’s (276 pass yards, 7.3 ypa, 2-0 TD-INT) success. There’s an opportunity here for Trinidad Chambliss.
What the Bulldogs can do, at least at times, is run the football. Entering Week 8, Georgia is averaging 185.5 rushing yards per game and just over 4.5 yards per carry. Mississippi, meanwhile, ranks 105th in yards-per-carry average (4.5) allowed to Power 4 teams. Home-field advantage certainly helps, and maybe the Bulldogs’ offense can deliver some explosive plays. Right now, though, we trust Ole Miss’ offense and defense slightly more. In a very close game, the Rebels win it in the fourth quarter.
(6) Alabama Crimson Tide – 38, (11) Tennessee Volunteers – 28
The availability of Jam Miller (concussion) lingers over this Tennessee vs Alabama matchup. If the Crimson Tide’s star running back can’t play, then we’re suddenly looking looking at an offense that could struggle to win the football as it did versus Florida State (3.3 ypc) and Wisconsin (3.3 ypc). Striking a balance offensively will be key, because it can set up Heisman Trophy front-runner Ty Simpson to put up big numbers in Week 8
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Tennessee’s secondary is still without JerMod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III. For as well as transfer cornerback Colton Hood is playing in this secondary, the Volunteers’ defense still surrenders a 137.05 QB rating (80th) and 257.8 passing yards per game (121st). Simpson can take full advantage of that, as long as Alabama has Miller out there to bring some balance and force Tennessee to respect the run.
Where the Volunteers can make things interesting is if this offensive line gives Joey Aguilar time to throw. From a clean pocket this season, per PFF, he has a 70 percent completion rate and averages 9.6 yards per attempt whereas that drops to a 45 percent completion rate when pressured. The Volunteers have a shot to beat Alabama if Miller is out, but the combo of home-field advantage and having the edge of the better quarterback pushes this in the Crimson Tide’s favor and even more so if Miller plays.
(20) USC Trojans– 38, (13) Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 34
The USC Trojans are riding high after dismantling Michigan in a statement win, in a game that the program likely hopes is a precursor to this Week 8 matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Of course, there are some big differences heading into this USC vs. Notre Dame game.
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First, the Trojans will be without starting running back Waymond Jordan on Saturday night due to an ankle injury. King Miller (158 rushing yards and 8.8 yards per carry average) looked great as a fill-in, but running on Notre Dame’s defense isn’t easy. On top of that, CJ Carr (13-3 TD-INT and 83.6 ESPN QBR) is far more dangerous right now as a passer to the Trojans’ defense than Bryce Underwood was.
While so much of the focus for this matchup is rightfully on the young quarterbacks, slowing them down comes down to the defensive coordinators. Defensive play-caller D’Anton Lynn has demonstrated he’s better at scheming up his group than Chris Ash has been at Notre Dame this season. The Fighting Irish have a viable shot to win if Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price can rip off some explosive plays, but it’s hard to bet on that given the inconsistencies from this ground game this season.
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(23) Utah Utes – 21, (15) BYU Cougars – 20
It’s perfect that the Week 8 college football schedule concludes with the BYU Cougars and Utah Utes in Provo. This is also the first ranked-versus-ranked matchup in the Holy War since 2009. We could cite an array of college football stats for this matchup, but the numbers legitimately don’t matter when it’s Utah vs. BYU.
Both head coaches have track records that speak for themselves, and the defenses ensure this will be a bone-crushing game. One advantage that Utah does have is it already faced an elite defense (Texas Tech) this season, providing offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier with an early opportunity to learn from their mistakes and make adjustments. It’s also worth noting that BYU’s normally stellar defense did just allow 5.7 yards per carry to Arizona’s running backs. This one is a coin flip, but we think Beck does enough as a play-caller to free up Dampier for some explosive runs that will propel Utah to a narrow victory.
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