Our Trevor Lawrence picks for his Week 8 game vs. the Rams don't like his chances of succeeding in London.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will visit their home-away-from-home on Sunday when they kick off early against the Los Angeles Rams in the latest edition of the NFL London games.
There are some interesting Trevor Lawrence odds on the player prop market, and my NFL picks for Sunday, October 19, explain why facing Jared Vance and the Rams pass rush will leave Lawrence feeling anything but jolly in London.
Trevor Lawrence prop pick
Trevor Lawrence best bet: Under 221.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Trevor Lawrence’s downfield throws have been nonexistent this season. According to PFF, the Jacksonville quarterback ranks dead last with a 44.7 deep passing grade, while only three QBs have a worse 20+ yard completion rate than his 22%.
Making matters worse, the Los Angeles Rams will cause him two separate issues. First is their nasty pass rush. Seattle sacked T-Law seven times last week, and even the return of Jacksonville’s starting center will be enough to slow down the Rams, whose 19 sacks rank fifth in the league.
That’s also before you consider Lawrence has one of the worst average time-to-throw metrics in the league. Lawrence also has a completion rate of just 53.4% when pressured, which is almost 11% lower than when he’s not.
The other problem is the coverage Lawrence will see this weekend. His PFF metrics indicate only three QBs have a larger performance differential this season between man coverage and zone coverage.
L.A. plays the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage, and its coverage rating is best in the NFL. That zone defense is part of the reason the Rams are allowing just a 46.0 passer rating on throws of more than 20 yards.
Lawrence’s average depth of target this year is just 7.9 yards, ranking 28th in the NFL. That’s not going to be enough to keep the chains moving here, especially if he’s taking sacks that kill off drives.
Those factors, combined with an inability to hit any big plays, will keep him Under 222 yards for the fourth time this season.
Trevor Lawrence same-game parlay
Trevor Lawrence Under 221.5 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence Under 14.5 rushing yards
Travis Etienne Over 2.5 receptions
The Rams not only generate pressure with the pass rush, but they also do a really good job of negating the ability of opposing QBs to scramble. And while Lawrence showed the ability to run against the Chiefs, he typically did so against man coverage.
The higher level of zone looks will keep eyeballs on Lawrence, and he’s going to find it difficult to escape the pocket against this defensive line. Look for Los Angeles to swarm if and when he does get away, holding him Under a rushing total he’s surpassed just once this year.
One thing teams have been doing well against the Rams is utilizing the running back in the passing game. Whether via screens or simply dumping it off due to nothing being open, we’ve seen running backs haul in a combined 20 passes against them in the last three games.
Travis Etienne Jr. saw a season-high against the Seahawks in both targets and catches, pulling in four of the five passes thrown to him. He’s caught at least three passes in consecutive games, and this is a prime spot to look for him to be a safety valve for his under-siege quarterback.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
Category: Football