Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the Heisman rankings as Carson Beck and Trinidad Chambliss have dropped out of the race.
The Heisman race was shaken up this week when Carson Beck and Miami went down on Friday night, then Tennessee, Ole Miss, USC, LSU, and Texas Tech all lost, which impacted a few players on the losing and winning teams.
Oddsmakers now list Indiana's Fernando Mendoza as the favorite to win the Heisman, but I have him as my second pick, while everyone has cooled off on the best receiver in the country, except me apparently.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Vaughn Dalzell’s Heisman Trophy Week 9 Poll
Last Game: 200 passing yards on 23/31, 3 TDs at #14 Missouri (27-24 win)
Season Stats: 1,678 passing yards, 70.9 completion %, 18 total TDs, 1 INTs
Ty Simpson has 20 total touchdowns to one interception on the year after the Tide's 37-20 win over Tennessee. While he's second in terms of odds at the sports books, he's my No. 1.
During Alabama's six-game winning streak, Simpson has completed 130-of-175 passes for 74.2%. That includes an impressive 89-of-129 (68.9%) passing and 10 total touchdowns during this current four-game stretch against ranked opponents: #5 Georgia, #16 Vanderbilt, #14 Missouri, and #11 Tennessee. There may not be a more impressive stretch of wins in the country than that.
Last Game: 332 passing yards on 24/28, 4 TDs vs Michigan State (38-13 win)
Season Stats: 1,755 passing yards, 73.5 comp %, 23 total TDs, 2 INTs
Indiana trailed Michigan State, 10-7 in the second quarter, then the Hoosiers turned up the heat for a 25-point win. Fernando Mendoza threw for four touchdowns and a season-high 332 yards on 24-of-28 passing.
Mendoza has now completed 78.7% of his passes at home and has 18 passing touchdowns, tow rushing scores and zero interceptions. Indiana hosts UCLA this weekend before back-to-back road contests at Maryland and Penn State. Maryland is the only team with a winning record left on Indiana's schedule — the remaining five opponents are a combined 14-21.
Last Game: 228 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 1 TD vs #20 USC (34-24 win)
Season Stats: 758 rushing yards, 197 receiving yards, 12 total TDs, 143 total touches
Notre Dame continued its heater with a 34-24 win against USC. That's five straight wins and all have come by double digits. Jeremiyah Love has been a major component to that success with nine total touchdowns, 631 rushing yards, and 118 receiving yards in that span.
His most impressive outing came against the Trojans. Love went for 228 rushing yards on 24 carries for one touchdown, along with 37 receiving yards on five receptions. Love's odds went from +4500 to +2000 after his career-high performance.
Last Game: 393 passing yards on 36/42, 4 TDs vs Minnesota (34-0 win)
Season Stats: 1,872 passing yards, 80 comp%, 19 TDs, 3 INTs
Julian Sayin made a jump in the market going from +1400 to +400 after the 34-0 win over Minnesota. Sayin threw for a career-high 393 yards and four touchdowns on 36-of-42 (85.7%) passing.
This is the arguably the fourth time that Sayin has done this on a national stage this year, so I am not sure why the jump was so drastic this time. OSU has a path to an undefeated record with Michigan as the lone ranked opponent and one of two road games (Purdue). Penn State, UCLA, and Rutgers all come to Columbus, so it's a decent schedule for the Buckeyes.
Last Game: 9 receptions, 97 yards, 10.8 ypc at Wisconsin (34-0 win)
Season Stats: 49 receptions, 602 yards, 12.3 ypc, 8 total TDs
Of all the top 10 candidates that are coming off a win, only Jeremiah Smith's odds dropped from +1300 to +3000! Even with 97 yards and 9 receptions in a 34-0 win, that wasn't enough for oddsmakers as Carnell Tate scored twice and Julian Sayin put on a show.
Smith's five-game touchdown streak was snapped, so I guess scoring a touchdown in every Big Ten game really is Smith's calling to a Heisman. In a 20-13 win at Penn State last year, Smith caught four passes for 55 yards. I expect a much bigger stat line this year, especially since the Nittany Lions snapped a seven-game touchdowns streak to start his career.
Honorable Mentions
Last Game: 160 passing yards, 88 rushing yards, 3 total TDs vs #10 LSU (31-24 win)
Season Stats: 1,569 passing yards, 438 rushing yards, 19 total TDs, 4 INTs
Out of everyone, Diego Pavia saw his odds take the most drastic jump. Pavia was +5000 after losing at Alabama, 31-14, but after a home win over LSU with three total touchdowns, Pavia is now +800 and the fourth favorite at DraftKings.
I don't agree with that drastic move, especially since he hasn't cracked 200 passing yards in back-to-back games and I think LSU is overrated, but with Missouri and Texas over the next two games, Pavia still can prove his rank.
Last Game: 335 total yards on 23/32, 4 total TDs at Arkansas (45-42 win)
Season Stats: 2,041 total yards, 61.9 comp %, 19 total TDs, 4 INTs
Well, forget what I said about Marcel Reed and playing himself out of the Heisman last week! Reed and A&M responded to any criticism in their first road game since Week 2 with a 45-point effort — the most points this season.
Reed recorded four total touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). The road does get tougher as A&M goes to LSU for a night game and to Missouri the following week apart of this three-game road trip. His odds cut in half, going from +2000 to +1000 after the win at Arkansas.
Last Game: 135 passing yards on 16/26, 1 TD, 1 INT vs #20 USC (34-24 win)
Season Stats: 1,758 passing yards, 61.5 comp %, 16 total TDs, 4 INTs
CJ Carr is still in the race, but he had his worst performance of the season. The interception he threw versus USC was mind-boggling and his 136 yards was unimpressive. On the other hand, his running backs combined for over 300 yards rushing, so he asked to do much. His stock went down, from +2500 to +3500, but he is still alive for the award.
Last Game: 289 passing yards on 26/31, 59 rushing yards, 5 total TDs vs #5 Ole Miss (43-35 win)
Season Stats: 1,553 passing yards, 279 rushing yards, 17 total TDs, 1 INT
Gunner Stockton had a career-high five touchdowns in a win over Ole Miss on Saturday moving his odds from +3000 to +1200. Stockton and the Bulldogs are riding a three-game winning streak since losing to Alabama.
Stockton has completed 71.4% of his passes and totaling nine touchdowns (5 passing, 4 rushing) in this three-game stretch. The junior has thrown and ran for a score in the same game four times this season and avoided being sacked in a game four different contests.
Last Game: 205 passing yards, 120 rushing yards, 1 TD at Duke (27-18 win)
Season Stats: 1,176 passing yards, 560 rushing yards, 14 total TDs, 1 INT
Dating back to last season, Haynes King has ran for a touchdown in 10 straight regular season games and 13 of the past 16. That's been his calling card, especially since King has four passing touchdowns on the year.
However, Georgia Tech remains one of the six undefeated teams. The Yellow Jackets needed a second-half rally at Duke to win, but at least Tech controls its own destiny in the ACC. King is likely the longest shot with a path at this point in the year, but so much would have to happen like Ohio State and Indiana losing, plus the SEC beating up on each other.
Stock Up
Last Game: 160 passing yards, 88 rushing yards, 3 total TDs vs #10 LSU (31-24 win)
Season Stats: 1,569 passing yards, 438 rushing yards, 19 total TDs, 4 INTs
No one's stock is higher after Diego Pavia went from +5000 to +800 in a win over LSU. Pavia totaled three touchdowns against LSU and improved his home splits with 14 total touchdowns to one turnover. Vanderbilt has three ranked opponents remaining, including two straight, so we'll see how high Pavia is capable of climbing.
Last Game: 228 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 1 TD vs #20 USC (34-24 win)
Season Stats: 758 rushing yards, 197 receiving yards, 12 total TDs, 143 total touches
I have been saying for weeks that the path for Jeremiyah Love is one full of opportunities and once Notre Dame started giving him the rock, everything started to change.
When Love has 16 or more carries in his career, Notre Dame is 6-1 and he's ran for at least 86 yards and scored seven total touchdowns. Love has scored in six straight games overall and ran for 100-plus yards in three of the previous five games.
Stock Down
Last Game: 271 passing yards on 25/35, 0 TDs, 4 INTs vs Louisville (24-21 loss)
Season Stats: 1,484 passing yards, 73 comp %, 12 total TDs, 7 INTs
After a four interception performance in a home loss to Louisville, Carson Beck's Heisman campaign is practically over. He went from being the favorite of +360 to now listed at +6000 in terms of odds, so I am being polite.
The Hurricanes no longer control their own destiny and Miami still has three road games, which is significant since they haven't left the state of Florida.
Last Game: 263 passing yards on 19/36, 3 total TDs at #9 Georgia (43-35 loss)
Season Stats: 1,549 passing yards, 323 rushing yards, 13 total TDs, 1 INT
Ole Miss took the loss at Georgia, the first of the season for the Rebels and that certainly threw a wrench in Trinidad Chambliss' Heisman run. While he topped 300 total yards for the fourth time in five games and recorded three total touchdowns at Georgia, the loss is what counts most. His odds went from +2200 to +3500 following the loss.
My Heisman Picks
I picked Carson Beck and Dante Moore to pick the Heisman over the last eight weeks, and within the past three games, those odds are shot.
Ty Simpson (+350), Fernando Mendoza (+340), and Jeremiyah Love(+2000) are now the hottest names, despite Ohio State being No. 1 with the nastiest duo in the country. I'd still say the value is on Jeremiah Smith (+3000) and his path to the Heisman, but Jeremiyah Love (+2000) has also entered the chat with his strength of schedule.
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