Thinking Through the Blue Jays Off-Season (Part 4)

After much throat clearing, it’s time for me to actually lay out my main move for the off season. Initially I’d also expected to have to debate starting pitching options, but Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce solve that problem. As it is, I can just focus on one main decision: Bo Bichette vs. Cody Bellinger.

I’ll start with Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens’ contract suggestions here. He expects Bellinger to command $28m a year over five years ($140m total), while Bo earns $29m a year over seven ($203m). I have to get the AAVs down, so I’ll propose going to six years and $156m for Bellinger or eight and $220m for Bo, with deferrals in either case that lower the AAV to $22.5m. In practice, given the 3.45% applicable federal rate right now, that would mean that Bo earns $27.5m a year, but with $16.5m deferred for 10 years, or Bellinger earns $26m a year with $11.8m deferred for 10 years. We’re starting to see deferrals become standard practice in large contracts as rich teams don’t mind shelling out cash but would like to tweak their luxury tax obligations. The Jays going to extra years to get Dylan Cease to agree to deferrals that lowered his AAV to $27m compared to $31 in Clemens’ estimate and $30m by the headline term of his contract is a good recent example. I think they can probably find a way to do the same for Bo or Bellinger.

So it’s possible to afford either, but what are their pros and cons? Bichette’s big advantage, beyond familiarity, is that he’s just 28. He should be fully in his prime for the first four or five years of an eight year contract and playable by the end. He’s a very good contact hitter, with a terrific 91% in-zone contact rate. Unlike most players who put the bat on the ball as often as he does, he usually crushes it. Not many guys are in the 85th percentile for contact and the 83rd percentile for hard hit rate. That’s a special set of traits. He pairs those strengths with significant risks, though. He’s become a slow runner, which has made him a net negative on the base paths and also strained his always fringy shortstop defence past the breaking point. His offensive approach also poses risks. He doesn’t have great plate discipline, relying on his knack for getting the barrel on the ball to overcome iffy swing decisions. That’s not an approach that tends to age well. Finally, he’s missed 20+ games three seasons in a row including half of 2024. There’s more risk of the bottom falling out for Bo than is typical for a slugging middle infielder still in his 20s. I don’t want to sound too down, though. This is a guy who’s turned in 4-5 win seasons like clockwork when he’s healthy. He’s been a respected part of the Jays clubhouse for years, and at least early in his deal he’ll be a star wherever he lands.

Bellinger is also a risky bet. He was healthy last year, but missed time four years in a row before that. He was also brutally bad his last two season in LA. Three solid years have largely put that behind him, but the spectre lingers. Plus, he’s 30. He should have a couple of years of his prime left, but the downward slope might be closer for him than for Bichette. On the plus side, he’s reinvented himself at the plate after his mid-career struggles, quietly becoming an excellent contact hitter who maxes out to lift and pull the ball to generate big power totals in spite of relatively light raw exit velocities. These days he resembles nobody at the plate so much as a left handed Alex Bregman. He’s remained a plus runner, which allows him to add value on the base paths and contributes to defence that’s probably below average in centre now but still solidly plus in the corners.

Statistially, Bellinger has been a better hitter two of the past three years and has put up higher WAR totals in all of them (4.4, 2.1 and 4.9 in 2023, ‘24, and ‘25 compared to Bichette’s 3.9, 0.3, and 3.8). Bichette projects to be a bit better in 2026 though, at least according to the Steamer system on Fangraphs.

Ultimately, my decision came down to roster fit. I think both players are appealing on the deals they’re expected to command, although both feel risky. But I’m more comfortable with the state of the infield in the short and longer term. I like Addison Barger as the third baseman of the present and future, and Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider should be able to combine to provide solid all around performance at second base. Longer term, their best prospects (Arjun Nimmala and Jojo Parker) are infielders. Meanwhile, Daulton Varsho is a pending free agent, Nathan Lukes is 31, and Anthony Santander is a question mark. They have some upper level outfield prospects in RJ Schreck and Yohendrick Pinango, but neither is a consensus future starter. Given all that, I think Bellinger is just a cleaner fit over the next few seasons. That he’s left handed is icing on the cake. I would sign Cody Bellinger for six years and $156m, with deferrals reducing the effective value to $135m (luxury tax AAV $22.5m).

I have a couple of smaller moves to round things out. I’d trade Nathan Lukes to the Phillies for Orion Kerkering. Lukes is a great story, but Bellinger bumps him out of a starting job. He’s a capable hitter and a solid fielder, and I think the Phillies would love to have a reliable vet to fill a glaring hole in their outfield for the minimum this year as they try to stay in contention with a tight payroll. Meanwhile, Kerkering is an upgrade on Garcia as a setup man, with a 98mph fastball with plus movement and a knack for staying off hitters’ barrels. He’s got one more year before arbitration. The Jays might have to add a prospect to make this balance, but even if so I think it’d be worth it. I’d also trade Jake Bloss to the Giants for Ryan Walker. Bloss is promising as an almost ready #4 starter type, but even once he comes back from injury he’ll be a little buried on the Jays roster. The Giants will have more room for him, especially as they’ll probably be looking to flip Robbie Ray at the deadline. Walker had a down year in 2025, but his 96mph sinker and his slider both have nasty movement that batters almost never square up, he doesn’t issue many walks, and as recently as 2023-24 he was posting excellent strikeout numbers. He’s controllable for four years and should fit nicely into the setup mix.

So there’s my plan for the off season. The Jays have new #1 and #4 starters in Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Cody Bellinger replaces Nathan Lukes in left, and the outfield depth has been cleared out to bring two setup quality relievers into the fold in Ryan Walker and Orion Kerkering. They Jays’ payroll stands at $283.8m, narrowly avoiding the third tax line and with the ability to reset next year. Let me know how I did in the comments.