Where the Mets’ payroll stands after the Winter Meetings

It was certainly a tumultuous Winter Meetings for the Mets. Their pursuit of Kyle Schwarber fell short, while two keymembers of the team’s core departed in free agency. As we wait to see what the Mets do in response to build out their 2026 roster, it’s worth checking in on the status of their payroll relative the various tax thresholds teams must navigate.

You can find the official rules on the competitive balance tax here. To summarize, any team over the first CBT threshold – set at $244M for 2026 – pays a 20% tax on all overages. That percentage escalates to 30% for repeat offenders, and grows to 50% for those who repeat in the tax for three or more consecutive seasons.

There are further thresholds for teams who blow past the first tax level. Spending $20M above the tax incurs a 12% surcharge; spending $40 million more incurs a 45% surcharge; and surpassing the CBT threshold by $60M incurs a hefty 60% percent surcharge. Additionally, any team that passes the third threshold – $40M above the baseline CBT threshold of $244M, or $284M for 2026 – will have their first overall selection moved back ten spots in the following draft.

It goes without saying that the Mets have been heavy payers of the tax. They’ve spent past the third tax threshold in every season since 2022, incurring roughly $310M of tax payments in that time. More importantly (unless you’re managing Steve Cohen’s check book), the Mets have been penalized in every draft since 2023, and will be penalized once again in this upcoming season based on their 2025 payroll.

Resetting the tax by dipping below the first CBT threshold at some point would carry significant financial benefits, but it almost completely unfeasible. As currently constructed, with no further additions, the Mets are already at a projected tax total of more than $272M per Spotrac. Despite what many on Twitter have said over the last ~48 hours, the Mets will not be operating like a small market team this offseason and will make significant additions. That obviously precludes cutting nearly $30M of payroll to dip back below the tax line.

Dipping below the third tax line to avoid draft pick penalties, while at least feasible, seems similarly unlikely. The Mets have been connected to multiple top level free agents – Michael King, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez – and were reportedly willing to give Kyle Schwarber $40M per year. Any single one of these moves would blow the Mets past the $284M threshold, incurring another year of draft penalties for 2027. And we’ve not even mentioned the potential trade targets, all of whom would have a similar effect.

So no, barring a complete 180 on what the Mets seem willing and able to spend under Steve Cohen’s ownership, they will continue to be a tax-paying team. Take solace in the fact that the team is a) fortunate enough to have an owner who will spend at this level, b) that these moves will make the team better, and c) that the Mets have generally done a very good job of drafting even while navigating penalties (Colin Houck aside). There are worse places to be.