Value of Things: A Cautionary Tale

The Houston Texans face two of the biggest decisions in the history of their franchise this offseason. C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson will be eligible for extensions. Essentially, they can go down three different roads on both players. With a player like Anderson they will likely go through door number one and give him his extension. That would mean a contract with an AAV likely north of 40 million dollars a season. That would make him the highest paid Texan in history until Stroud gets his deal.

The second road is what I would lovingly call the “kick the can down the road” method. You would simply wait to extend Stroud until after year four knowing that you had the fifth year option as a buffer. If one were to label this one, it would be the Dak Prescott plan. The advantage of that plan is that you get another year of data to use to help you make a decision. The disadvantage is that the cost keeps going up each and every season.

The final option is obviously to move on. You would essentially be saying that we like Stroud just fine, but we don’t like him enough to give him top of the market quarterback money. What is interesting is that a number of clubs probably should have gone down this path, but did not because it is not a particularly popular one. Being without a quarterback is scary in the NFL. The line of demarcation between the have and have nots is pretty stark. Most teams would rather overpay a guy than take their chances.

With the Cardinals coming to town it would seem like the perfect opportunity to look at one of those quarterbacks. Kyler Murray signed a 5 year, 230 million dollar deal in 2022 that could run possibly through the 2028 season. For the math impaired, that amounts to a 46.2 million dollar average annual value. While he was one of the richest quarterbacks at the time, he has slipped to the middle of the pack in pay, but the Cardinals appear ready to move on from the former first overall pick. Let’s compare some numbers.

Kyler Murray Numbers

• Won-Loss Record: 38-48-1
• Passing Yards per game: 235.2
• TD/INT: 121/60
• Rating: 92.2
• PCT: 67.1
• Net yards per attempt: 6.07
• Rushing yards per game: 36.7
• Rushing TD: 32

It would seem like Murray would be close to an elite quarterback based on the numbers. After all, if you combine the passing yards and rushing yards per game you would get 271.9 total yards per game. That would easily put him in the top ten among quarterbacks over that six year span. There are two ways to look at Murray. We can look at him on a per season basis. Let’s assume he played 17 games.

Passing Yards: 3998
TD: 24
INT: 12
PCT: 67.1
Rushing Yards: 624
Rushing TD: 6

So, if you had a quarterback combine to create 30 touchdowns in a 17 game season you’d be pretty darn happy. If that same quarterback combined for over 4500 total yards that would also be a big deal. Unfortunately, a 17 game schedule just isn’t likely for Murray. He has played a combined 87 games in a possible 115 games. In a seven year career that is an average of four missed games per season.

However, I suppose the biggest problem with Murray is that there just seems to be something missing. When he has talent around him he seems to perform well, but when that talent is lacking he struggles. That seems fine, but when you are paying a player nearly 50 million per season you need that player to rise above it all. Right or wrong, Murray has been unable to do so.

C.J. Stroud Numbers

• Won-Loss: 24-18
• Passing Yards per game: 238.5
• TD/INT: 55/23
• Rating: 92.9
• PCT: 63.7
• NY/A: 6.27
• Rushing Yards per game: 14.1
• Rushing TDs: 3

I am not saying that Kyler Murray is as good as Stroud. I am not saying anything about which quarterback is actually better. The collective numbers they have produced make them look pretty similar. At the end of the day, a quarterback is judged on two things: wins and numbers. For instance, no one would be bowled over by Troy Aikman’s raw numbers, but he won three Super Bowls, so people consider him an elite quarterback. Stroud has the wins where Murray does not. He is consistently been a 10-7 type of quarterback. Now, let’s look at Stroud on a per 17 game basis.

Passing Yards: 4055
Passing TDs: 22
Interceptions: 9
PCT: 63.7
Rushing Yards: 240
Rushing TDs: 1

It’s at this point where we have to get philosophical. What is the gap between who Stroud can be and what he currently is? Moreover, what is keeping him from getting there? One of the things that they used to say about Michael Jordan was that Dean Smith was the only coach that could hold him under 30 points per game. Smith was Jordan’s coach at North Carolina. Similarly, DeMeco Ryans might be more effective at holding Stroud down than any defensive coordinator in the NFL.

The whole concept behind the value of things began as an expression of making sure each player was compensated appropriately for their value. Every player has value. If Ryans wants an offense that scores 20-25 points per game and doesn’t turn it over then he doesn’t need a Hall of Fame quarterback. He needs a solid one. Stroud may or may not have Hall of Fame talent, but as things stand now he likely won’t put up Hall of Fame numbers in this offense. So, how much is a solid quarterback worth in the modern NFL and is Stroud willing to sign for THAT amount. That remains to be seen.