Fantasy Football 2025: Week 15 preview – Start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 15, and the Fantasy Football Playoffs!

The NFL’s Week 14 slate was loaded with pivotal games, and it delivered the goods. Fans got a little bit of everything: Snow games, unheralded rookie QBs stepping up, inexplicable coaching decisions, a player turning the ball over twice on the same play for the first time in NFL history, circus catches, refereeing controversies, monster kicking performances, and much more. It’s fitting that the week ended with an overtime game (albeit, a really ugly one), and that the overtime game ended with a team driving for the win and turning it over near the goal line.  

The NFL continues to entertain us week in and week out, and remains very close to undefeated. I for one am going to be very sad when there are no more games to watch this season.

But that’s then, and this is now, and you’ve got a playoff bracket to win. Whether that’s a ‘Chip, or a Toilet Bowl tourney to see who must get some sort of embarrassing tattoo or eat something terrible, read on for this week’s solid gold fantasy advice.

Stats of the Week:

• The 10 points that the Chiefs scored against the Texans on Sunday night is their lowest output at home in any game started by Patrick Mahomes (which covers eight seasons).

• One week after being skunked 26-0 at Seattle, the Vikings pitched a shutout of their own, blanking the Commanders at home, 31-0. The last team to pull off this rare feat was the 1992 Broncos.

• In his first 12 games of the season, Jalen Hurts threw just two interceptions. He threw four against the Chargers on Monday night, and on one play he threw a pick AND lost a fumble. For those who needed a big game, or even just anything but a meltdown from the reigning Super Bowl MVP to make the fantasy playoffs, Monday night’s debacle was a really rough watch.

• Since OT Lane Johnson’s rookie season (2013), the Eagles are 120-62-1 (66% wins) in the games in which he has played, and 15-27 (36% wins) in the games he has missed.

• The Lions have not lost back-to-back regular season games in more than three years (it last happened in October, 2022).

• Brandon Aubrey is the first kicker to hit three field goals of 55+ yards in a single game.

• Cameron “Dicker the kicker” was a perfect 5-for-5 on Field Goals Monday night and provided what turned out to be the winning points in OT against the Eagles. Dicker is the most accurate kicker in NFL history (minimum 100 attempts) at 94%, and only he and #2 Aubrey are above 90% for their careers. Irony of ironies: The Eagles cut Dicker in 2022 when Jake Elliott returned from injury. Elliott was 4-for-5 on Monday night, in a game Philly lost by three points.  

• The PIT@BAL game featured the NFL’s two longest-tenured coaches, and it was the 39^th time that John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have faced each other. That’s second only to George Halas and Curly Lambeau, who squared off 49 times. The Ravens and Steelers play each other again on the final Sunday of this season.

Fantasy Stat of the Week:

• Josh Allen has topped 35 fantasy points three different times this season.

Week 15, here we go!

Bye Weeks: NONE

Week 15 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen,Jahmyr Gibbs, or JSN. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.

My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers pretty much crushed in Week 14. It was my best week in more than a month. Ride of the Week Jameson Williams was solid (WR15 on the Week with 13.8 fantasy points), Fade of the Week Ordonde Gadsden had just one catch for seven yards, and Sleeper of the Week Isaiah Likely scored and came oh-so-close to a second TD that would’ve won the game for Baltimore. Beyond those, I had multiple hits up and down the board, including sleeper/deep sleeper calls on Shedeur Sanders, Tyler Shough, and J.J. McCarthy, all of whom finished inside the Top-10 QBs for the week, and Fades on Justin Herbert and Caleb Williams, who finished outside the Top-15 QBs. You can check my work here: Week 14.

Ride of the Week: Travis Etienne, Jr. (vs. NYJ). I love the trends coming in. The Jets got absolutely gashed by Miami’s running backs last week (36-216-3), and that was with Devon Achane not playing after halftime. Meanwhile, Etienne has quietly put up at least 19 fantasy points in three of the Jaguars’ last four games (all wins). They should make it five in a row this week, with Etienne getting plenty of chances around the goal line. The Jets have allowed the third most rushing yards, second most rushing TDs (15) and third most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing backs, and they’ve been decidedly worse against the run since they traded stalwart DT Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys. Etienne is ranked outside the Top-10 RBs this week and I’ll write that off to nobody paying attention to the Jaguars. He’s a Top-10 play.

Fade of the Week: Jacoby Brissett (@HOU). Brissett has saved some fantasy seasons and has been a revelation as Kyler Murray’s replacement. He’s attempted more passes than anyone in the last month, and over the past six weeks he’s the QB2, at 21.3 FPPG. Read that again – Jacoby freaking Brissett is the QB2 since Halloween! More impressive than that, he’s had some tough matchups, and his low gameduring that stretch is 18.7 fantasy points. He’s been remarkably consistent with a high floor and it’s hard to believe he’s the same player who stunk for the Patriots last season. Well, I’m nervous about him this week. The Texans’ D is downright nasty, and especially at home. They’ve yielded the fewest points in the NFL (16 per game). They’ve surrendered the fewest passing TDs (12) and FPPG to opposing QBs, and are one of only two teams that has more picks than TDs allowed. They get constant pressure, and the Cardinals are likely going to be without starting LT Parris Johnson, Jr. The Texans held Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford under 30 fantasy points, combined.  This is a tough spot for Brissett, and the chances of him turning into a pumpkin this week are pretty good.

Sleeper of the Week: Isaiah Likely (@CIN). I’ve never run back a Sleeper of the Week before, but I’m doing it here. Alert the media! Likely has lost two TDs in the past two weeks in bizarre fashion, but even with that he’s put up two good games in a row (with six targets in each contest), one of which was against these Bengals two weeks ago (5-95-0). The Bengals continue to be historically awful at trying to cover tight ends. For the season, they’ve allowed the most catches, yards, TDs (15) and FPPG to opposing TEs, in each case by a wide margin. With Likely’s usage ticking up, and with the Bengals getting into shootouts every week, I don’t get how he’s ranked as the TE15 this week.

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Josh Allen,Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, and Joe Burrow; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

It’s been a rough go for Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL) and Lamar Jackson (@CIN), but I like them both to have big performances this week. Ravens-Bengals has shootout written all over it, and although Lamar struggled against them two weeks ago, he finally showed some positive signs last week, and the Bengals have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing QBs. As for Baker, there’s a chance he’ll have one or both of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back, and with Bucky Irving now ramped up, this offense might finally look like what we expected. The Falcons shouldn’t scare anyone at this point.

Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include Jaxson Dart (vs. WAS), Brock Purdy (vs. TEN), Trevor Lawrence (vs. NYJ), and Sam Darnold (vs. IND). All have favorable matchups, at home.

Sleepers:

If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the QBs who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week aren’t great. J.J. McCarthy (@DAL) gets the defense that has allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs, but he’s hard to trust, even after last week. Roll with him if you need to.

Beyond him, I think you can try C.J. Stroud (vs. ARI), Bryce Young (@NO), Tyler Shough (vs. CAR), and Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA).

Fades:

I’d again think twice about starting Justin Herbert (@KC) this week. I didn’t like what I saw on Monday night (other than how much he ran), and I doubt the situation with his broken hand will be much better. Herbert had a huge game against KC in Week 1, but I wouldn’t lean to heavily into that in the December cold (game-time temperatures in the 20s), on the road, and with Herbert injured. The Chargers have an implied total of 19 points this week. Pass.

I’d try to avoid both Jordan Love (@DEN) and in the same game, Bo Nix (vs. GB) if I could. Both defenses rank in the top eight in terms of fewest FPPG allowed to opposing QBs, and Denver plays nothing but ugly games, many of which are low-scoring affairs. This game has 19-16 written all over it.  

Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Shedeur Sanders (@CHI, and I’m not getting sucked in by one game at home against the Titans), Tua Tagovailoa (@PIT), and Cam Ward (@SF).

Running back:

Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson,Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Devon Achane, Derrick Henry, and James Cook; the analysis starts below them.  

Rides:

Bucky Irving (vs. ATL) is only playing about half the snaps since his return (so far), but I expect that to increase, plus he’s getting high-value touches. He’s in play for a Top-10 finish this week, against an Atlanta defense that’s gotten worse as the season has gone on.

Chase Brown (vs. BAL) continues to deliver week after week, and although he only had 35 yards last week (after six straight games with 100 yards from scrimmage), he found the end zone twice. Like Irving, he’s starting to look like the back that was a league-winner down the stretch last season.

Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings include: TreVeyon Henderson (vs. BUF), against the Bills’ porous run defense, Saquon Barkley (vs. LV), Javonte Williams (vs. DAL) and Woody Marks (vs. ARI, a defense that’s been absolutely destroyed by running backs over the past month).   

Sleepers:

Remember all the hype around “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (@NYG) last August? That guy who was going to win leagues? Well, he’s been a bust, but I think he’s in play this week, with Chris Rodriguez, Jr. dealing with a groin injury and the Giants on tap. New York has allowed a whopping 6.1 yards per carry over the past five games, and the second most FPPG to opposing RBs on the season.

Others to consider (outside the Top-25 for the week) if you’re stuck at RB: Devin Neal (vs. CAR), Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (vs. WAS), Chuba Hubbard (@NO), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), and Zach Charbonnet (vs. IND).

Fades:

You’re obviously starting Jonathan Taylor (@SEA), but temper expectations. It’s a tough matchup (third fewest rushing yards and fifth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs), and the Colts’ QB situation is concerning, to say the least. Nothing says “we aren’t OK at QB” quite like signing a 44 year-old grandfather who hasn’t played in five years to your practice squad.

You’re also starting Kyren Williams (vs. DET), but he’s another big-name RB who might under-deliver this week. The Lions have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and Blake Corum continues to see a meaningful share of the work, including at the goal line.

Omarion Hampton (@KC) only played about a third of the snaps in his first game back, and while that should go up, this is clearly going to be close to a 50/50 backfield for now. I’d think twice about penciling in Hampton in a tough matchup and a game that will likely be low-scoring.

I’m also low on Breece Hall (@JAC, fourth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs) and while last week was great (except he was mostly on people’s benches), I’ll be surprised if Tony Pollard (@SF) doesn’t immediately revert to being a guy you don’t want in your starting lineup.

I’ll fade all Chiefs’ RBs (vs. LAC). They really don’t run the ball well. Kareem Hunt does get his TDs, but not much else, so you’re banking on that if you do choose to start him. While we’re here, I’d also avoid the Cardinals’ RBs (@HOU). Even with the news that Trey Benson isn’t coming back, it’s a committee in a bad matchup.

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week – Puka Nacua AND Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens (and CeeDee Lamb, if he plays), Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Can we have the Justin Jefferson (@DAL) conversation? OK, let’s have it. Ifyou’re in the playoffs, he probably isn’t on your roster. But if you made it here despite him…Good job by you! Two weeks ago, Jefferson hit as my Fade of the Week, and he followed that up with another stinker, against a cake opponent. He’s coming off the two worst games of his career, and I get it if you’re out for good. He’s a tough click with your season on the line. But I think you can do it. Dallas has allowed the most yards, TDs (22), and FPPG to opposing WRs, and unlike last week, the Vikings will need to air it out in this one to keep up with their opponent. It’s now or never for JJ.

Five Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20, and all with favorable matchups against suspect pass defenses: Nico Collins (vs. ARI), A.J. Brown (vs. LV), Jaylen Waddle (@PIT), Terry McLaurin (@NYG), and in the same game, Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. WAS).

Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week, I like all of these guys as a WR2/WR3 or Flex play this week: Jauan Jennings (vs. TEN), Zay Flowers (@CIN), D.K. Metcalf (vs. MIA), and despite the matchup, Christian Watson (@DEN). Watson has five TDs in his last four games and it’s hard to consider benching him right now, even at Denver.

Sleepers:

I’ve been hitting on a few WR sleepers for the last several weeks, so let’s try for more.

Khalil Shakir (@NE) is ranked outside the Top-30 WRs this week and I think that’s too low. The Patriots don’t have a shutdown defense and I think the Bills will be able to throw on them, with Shakir being the chain-mover from the slot when Josh Allen needs it.

Other WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Luther Burden III (vs. CLE, and especially if Rome Odunze is out again), Jordan Addison (@DAL), Darnell Mooney (@TB), Darius Slayton (vs. WAS), and if you want to gamble, Ricky Pearsall (vs. TEN).

Want deeper sleepers for DFS, of if you’re truly stuck? Isaac TeSlaa (@LAR), Chimere Dike (@SF), Rashid Shaheed (vs. SEA), and Jalen Coker (@ NO) are decent dart throws.

Fades:

Michael Wilson (@HOU) has been an absolute monster in the three games Marvin Harrison, Jr. has missed. Like, league-winning stuff. He’s averaged 12 catches for close to 150 yards on 16.5 targets in those three games. I’m sure he’ll see volume this week, but you know the matchup scares me. I saw what the Texans (fifth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing WRs) did to Mahomes and Rashee Rice last week. I get it if you’re rolling with him – just don’t expect another huge game.

Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who’ve been starting options for much of the season and who I’m trying to avoid this week include Stefon Diggs (vs. BUF), Ladd McConkey (@KC), Michael Pittman, Jr. and Alec Pierce (@SEA), and Troy Franklin (vs. GB).

Tight end:

Elite options this week – Trey McBride and George Kittle. The analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Tyler Warren (@SEA). I don’t know who will play QB for the Colts, but I don’t think it matters. Seattle’s defense has been great all year, except for guarding tight ends. They’ve allowed the second most catches and yards, and third most FPPG, to the position. When they skunked the Vikings at home two weeks ago, T.J. Hockenson was the only Minnesota player who had a good game. I think the Cots will target Warren early and often in a game where they’re likely to struggle offensively.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Travis Kelce (vs. LAC, who just gave up a pretty big game to Dallas Goedert), Mark Andrews (@CIN), Jake Ferguson (vs. MIN), Brenton Strange (vs. NYJ), and Theo Johnson (vs. WAS).

Sleepers:

TEs to consider if you’re stuck (ranked outside the Top-14 this week): Juwan Johnson (vs. CAR), Dalton Schultz (vs. ARI), Colby Parkinson (vs. DET), and Mike Gesicki (vs. BAL).

Fades:

You’re starting Brock Bowers (@PHI), but I hate the matchup, and especially if Kenny Pickett is the starter. The Eagles have allowed the fourth fewest catches, fewest yards, third fewest FPPG, and just three TDs to opposing TEs. I also think the Raiders will once again run fewer than 50 plays this week, and they’ll be lucky to score 15 points.

Hunter Henry (vs. BUF) is a sit for me this week. The Bills held him to two catches for 46 yards in the first matchup, and that’s one of the better totals the Bills have allowed to tight ends. They’ve allowed the fewest catches and FPPG to the position, and just two TDs.

Other TEs who’ve been starting options, but who I’d rather avoid this week if I could, include Dallas Goedert (vs. LV), Ordonde Gadsden II (@KC), and Darren Waller (@PIT).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 15 Waiver Wire column.

Good luck in Week 15!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***