NFL playoff picture update: Detroit Lions’ margin for error is gone

The Detroit Lions dropped their sixth game of the season on Sunday, losing to the Los Angeles Rams 41-34. At 8-6, they remain on the outside looking in for the NFC playoff picture, but they are far from out of it. In fact, the picture is as clear as ever.

Detroit didn’t get the key help they really needed on Week 15, but they did get some help. Let’s break it all down in our updated NFL playoff picture.

NFC North standings

1. Bears: 10-4
2. Packers: 9-4-1
3. Lions: 8-6
4. Vikings: 5-8*

*Plays on Sunday night, but is also eliminated from postseason contention

The Bears re-take the top spot in the division after the Packers’ loss to the Broncos. Detroit is in a tough spot, because they’re two games behind the Bears and 1.5 games behind the Packers (essentially two games). Down two games with three left is a tough spot to be in, but luckily for Detroit, the Bears and Packers play next week, which will give the Lions an opportunity to gain ground on one of the teams.

Because Detroit can make up a second game on the Bears with the season finale, you should still be rooting for the Packers next week. Although they appeared to have lost both Micah Parsons and Christian Watson to injuries, so it’ll be tough for them.

If the Packers beat the Bears, Detroit will need the Packers to lose another game in their final two in order to be able to catch them. They play the Ravens and Vikings to close out the season.

Current NFC playoff picture

Division leaders

1. Rams: 11-3
2. Bears: 10-4
3. Eagles: 9-5
4. Buccaneers: 7-7

Wild Card race (top three advance)

5. Seahawks: 11-3
6. 49ers: 10-4
7. Packers: 9-4-1
8. Lions: 8-6
9. Panthers: 7-7
10. Cowboys: 6-6-1*

*Still playing on SNF

The Seahawks, 49ers, and Bears all won in Week 15, which is tough for the Lions’ playoff odds.

With only three games left, it’s nearly impossible for the Lions to catch the Seahawks (three-game lead) or 49ers (two-game lead). San Francisco not only has a two-game lead, but they’ve now clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their conference record (8-2 vs. Lions’ 5-5). There is a small chance the Seahawks lose out, their schedule is brutal: vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers. And Detroit would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker if they won out with a Seahawks 0-3 finish (7-5 conference record vs. 6-6).

But the Lions’ most realistic hope to make the playoffs is to pass one of the NFC North teams. As a reminder, here’s the remaining schedules of all three teams:

Lions:

• vs. Steelers (7-6)
• at Vikings (5-8)
• at Bears (10-4)

Bears:

• vs. Packers (9-4-1)
• at 49ers (10-4)
• vs. Lions (8-6)

Packers:

• at Bears (10-4)
• vs. Ravens (7-7)
• at Vikings (5-8)

So if the Lions go 3-0, they’ll need either the Bears or Packers to go 1-2 down the stretch. Still quite possible—NYT Playoff Picture puts the odds at 34%—but the margin for error is gone.