Why are Wales' captains leaving for England?

It was the news Welsh rugby had feared.

And, sadly, expected.

The confirmation of Lions flanker Jac Morgan and fellow Wales captain Dewi Lake leaving the Ospreys for Gloucester is another blow for the game in Wales that has taken a battering of late.

Even amid Welsh rugby's renown tribalism, this news will not have been celebrated by regional rivals.

Some see the departures as symptomatic of the apparent ill-health of the game in Wales.

Indeed, Ospreys head coach Mark Jones cited the current uncertainty around the future as a factor in the pair's departure.

Former Ospreys head coach Sean Holley has called the news "devastating" and "another sad day" for Welsh rugby.

But this is not the first time Welsh rugby has seen its best talent leave - so what makes this different?

• Wales captains Morgan and Lake to join Gloucester
• Listen: Scrum V podcast - Wales captains to leave Ospreys
• You can not blame players for leaving - Hook

What's happened?

On the one hand, it's a tale well told.

A player approaches the end of a contract, and turns it down to accept one elsewhere.

Money has always been on offer for those willing to travel. France was a popular destination for many of the Warren Gatland-era stars. Premiership Rugby called to George North, Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams and Dan Biggar.

Cast your mind back further and it was Rugby League that was the temptation.

"Yes, there's a history of players going elsewhere to get new experiences but there's different reasons this time," former Dragons wing and players' union chair Ashton Hewitt told the Scrum V podcast.

Namely the uncertainty created with professional clubs in Wales set to be reduced to three by 2027.

"We don't know what the future of professional rugby will look like," added former Wales captain Siwan Lillicrap. "If it was another career, you wouldn't sit around and hope."

Why has it caused so much concern?

Because of the implications.

With the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) stating its new set up will have one club in Cardiff, one in the east of Wales and one in the west, a scrap for survival between the Scarlets in Llanelli and the Swansea-based Ospreys is expected.

Add into the mix that WRU chair Richard Collier Keywood would not comment on questions over the Ospreys owners – Y11 Sport & Media – showing interest in taking over the WRU-owned Cardiff, the future of the Ospreys has been particularly in focus.

Holley questions whether Morgan and Lake based decisions on information the wider public wasn't privy to.

That is not known, but the Ospreys were known to have made competitive offers for them to stay and both players were seen as two who would be keen to remain close to home.

"I'm worried," added Hewitt. "Is this like the nail in the coffin of the Ospreys in terms of which region is to go? But this will affect every region with people thinking about leaving.

"I think there will be more players going then we've seen at any one time than in the past.

"Until there's a level of clarity and certainty in Wales you can't blame them."

Supporters do not appear to be blaming the players, with uncertainty seeping into the stands.

"The concerning bit is do our supporters now go and support Gloucester?" said Lillicrap. "And where do our young aspiring players want to play? That's a worry for the future."

What have the Ospreys said?

As well as the usual tributes for Lake – an academy graduate – and Morgan, who has established himself as a world class talent while at the Swansea-based region, there was a spelling out of the harsh realities.

Jones insisted the club did "their upmost" to keep the pair, but, crucially added: "Unfortunately, these matters are sometimes taken out of your hands, especially under the current circumstances in Welsh rugby."

Morgan hinted at the factors at play in the statement, saying: "This was an extremely difficult decision for me to make, but I hope our supporters can understand the reasoning behind me wanting to pursue a new challenge."

What have the Welsh Rugby Union said?

The fact a governing body felt the need to issue a statement about two players moving clubs suggests they are aware of how this has been perceived.

The Union expressed its disappointment before going on to stress that avoiding such a scenario is why they need to make the plans they have proposed.

"We are at the beginning of that journey and are working with all of the professional clubs to put that new system in place as quickly as possible," it read.

"As we work to create a truly world class rugby environment in Wales in the next years, we hope that players like Jac and Dewi – and others – will come back to Wales."

The WRU refused an interview request with performance director, Dave Reddin, but referred to their statement above.

Were central contracts an option?

The WRU's statement also pointed out they have guaranteed existing player contracts and offered financial support for new signings during this period.

This is said to have included an offer of central contracts for some players.

The new proposals for Welsh rugby would involve central contracts across the three remaining clubs once the three-club plans take hold.

But it appears they are on the table now as a way of enticing players to stay in the meantime.

If they were part of the package for Morgan and Lake to remain in Wales, it did not work.

What about the 25-cap rule?

Not so long ago, anyone playing their club rugby outside of Wales who did not have 60 caps could not play for the country.

As post-Covid finances hit the game, that was dropped to 25 in February 2023.

But as the lure of Test rugby struggles against the realities of earning a career, there are also caveats.

For example, if a reasonable offer has not been made to keep the player in Wales, it can be waived.

And Lions caps count too – meaning Morgan (24 for Wales and two for the Lions) will remain eligible once he heads to Kingsholm, as will 26-cap Lake.

Even then there is no guarantee the rule will remain in place as part of the ongoing changes.

Will others follow?

No-one knows for sure, but the predictions are that Morgan and Lake will not be the first if the offers from elsewhere are on the table.

There are an estimated 80 players out of contract across the four regions at the end of the season.

Ospreys and Wales fly-half Dan Edwards – who would not qualify under the 25-cap rule - has been linked with Leicester, while Test stars Aaron Wainwright and Josh Adams are among those who are said to have been the subject of interest from English clubs.

One crumb of comfort may be that Prem sides are limited by the number of non-English qualified players they can have in their matchday squads.

But that would not mean that France, or even further afield, are not considerations for players amid the uncertainty.

'Fragility of system Welsh rugby finds itself in'

Analysis - Gareth Rhys Owen, Scrum V commentator

There is nothing new about elite Welsh players leaving at the peak of their powers.

Jonathan Davies was 25 when he moved to Clermont, James Hook the same age when he joined Perpignan and Dan Lydiate 25 when he left for Racing.

Morgan, now 25, and Lake, 26, fit that same pattern. The best Welsh players, once they reach their prime, will often look beyond Wales.

In that sense, their decision to move on is neither surprising nor unprecedented - even if Gloucester are not a European superpower or the rugby equivalent of a 'galactico' destination.

What makes these departures different is the context in which they are happening.

The WRU is openly considering cutting a region and it is no secret that the Ospreys are among those facing an uncertain future.

In that climate, no player - particularly those at the top of the game - would be blamed for securing their future elsewhere. That acceptance is the key point.

When senior players leave amid ongoing structural uncertainty, it reflects the fragility of the system and the position Welsh rugby now finds itself in.