Rams vs. Seahawks is the most important Thursday Night Football game of the year

It’s not often that Thursday Night Football gives us the game of the week, but here we are. The Los Angeles Rams travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and it’s a game with huge implications not just for who could end up with the NFC West crown, but potentially the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, with home field advantage being the prize at the end.

With both teams sitting at 11-3 there’s so much on the line. The winner will functionally need to botch their last two games of the season not to end up with the top seed, while the loser will be on the road in the opening round of the playoffs. Let’s dive into the scenarios for this big game.

Where things stand right now…

The Rams and Seahawks are tied at 11-3 on the season with Los Angeles currently having the tiebreaker edge due to their Week 11 win over Seattle.

That game was a total dog fight, with the Rams barely prevailing in the end, 21-19 on an afternoon where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in his worst game of the season. What we saw in that first matchup is that the Seahawks have the ability to keep Matthew Stafford’s explosive passing plays in check, and do have answers in the secondary to bottle up Puka Nacua, preventing him from making those loping YAC plays which are such a part of the Rams’ offensive DNA.

Meanwhile we saw that Los Angeles is one of the few defensive teams to solve Darnold this season. In 2025 he’s thrown 11 interceptions, and four of them came on that afternoon in November. One of the calling cards to Darnold’s season has been beating pressure while still making big plays, but the Rams dismantled him without that pressure. They essentially sat in a two-high zone and asked him to find the gaps, and he struggled.

It’s the parity between these teams that make them so fascinating to watch head-to-head.

There’s a slight edge to the Rams on offense, a slight edge to the Seahawks on defense — and this is truly a game where the winner could go on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the Super Bowl, because in an inconsistent year these are the two teams who have found their form.

What happens with a Rams win?

Los Angeles would move to a commanding 12-3 record on the season with two games in hand. Those remaining games are against the Falcons and Cardinals, which are likely two more wins. Alternatively we could see the Rams have the NFC in hand by Week 18 and choose to rest their starters ahead of the playoffs. Essentially a win gives them a lot of flexibility with Seattle being their last good opponent on the schedule.

Critically it would also give the Rams a 2-0 record over Seattle this year, which means that even if the Seahawks found a way to tie Los Angeles on record, the Rams would still get the No. 1 seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

What happens with a Seahawks win?

This is where things get really interesting. Seattle would move to 12-3 and take over the top of the NFC West, but they would have a lot more to play for in the final weeks of the season. The final games of the Seahawks’ season come against the Panthers and and 49ers, who are both better than the Rams’ remaining competition.

If Seattle wins on Thursday, then the Rams win out, and the Seahawks drop one of their remaining games we hit a tie in the NFC West. It’s here things get a little wild. If the ‘Hawks lost to the 49ers in Week 18 then the Rams would win the NFC West on a tiebreaker. If the loss came to the Panthers then the Seahawks and Rams would be tied in head-to-head, tied in division record, tied in common games, tied in conference record — taking the teams to the fifth tiebreaking scenario which would be strength of victory.

As it stands the Rams have a narrow edge in strength of victory, but that will drop considering their remaining opponents are both below .5o0 — while a Seahawks win over the Rams would boost their strength of victory. There are too many variables to consider involving four different teams’ remaining schedules, but there’s a chance we could go even deeper into the tiebreaking scenarios to settle this one.

Who wins Rams-Seahawks on Thursday Night Football?

That’s the million dollar question, and it’s a tough one to answer. If Davante Adams is unable to play for the Rams it’s a big blow. He wasn’t a factor in the first matchup between these teams, but that’s also why the game was so close. Adams is Stafford’s favorite target in the end zone, while also giving them a wrinkle in the red zone where it’s tough for teams to adequately cover both Nacua and Adams.

Meanwhile it’s unlikely that Sam Darnold will play as poorly as he did when these teams first met. It could very well come down to whether or not Seattle can force a key turnover, while letting their defense handle its business.

Either way, we’re in for one of the best games this year on Thursday night.