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The Ravens trail the Patriots by four games in the AFC, but are still favored for Sunday night’s face-off in Baltimore.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-7) are four games behind the New England Patriots (11-3) in the AFC standings, but they are still favored by 2.5 points for the two teams’ Week 16 matchup on Sunday night.

The game will be at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, where the Ravens have historically been successful, especially in primetime. But that has not been the case this year. The Ravens are 3-5 at home (3-3 with a healthy Lamar Jackson), 1-3 in primetime, and 0-2 in home primetime games. So while home field advantage still tilts the spread towards the home team, the Ravens have not been dominant enough in their own stadium to justify a bigger impact on the odds.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are a top-seven team in points and yards on both sides of the ball. Though they have benefitted from a weak schedule, they have won most of their games convincingly and own a +106 point differential. One on side of the ball, they have an MVP candidate in second-year quarterback Drake Maye; on the other, head coach Mike Vrabel has coached up one of the best run-stopping units in the league.

The Ravens’ shutout of the Bengals in Week 15 was impressive, but that still came against a 4-10 team and the worst defense in the league. It does not change Baltimore’s rollercoaster of a season and struggles against stronger opponents. This week, with both teams fighting to win their division, the projection of a close game makes sense. However, the Ravens have not shown the kind of consistent high-level football that would have them beating a team with a better record by, again, four games.

Here are the Ravens’ full Week 16 odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.