The 49ers need one domino to fall and the ball is in the court for the top seed in the NFC.
The NFC playoff race is heating up with three weeks to go, as the seven-team field is starting to materialize. The San Francisco 49ers are right in the middle of it as the No. 6 seed at 10-4.
Not only are they still in contention for the NFC West title, being a game back of both the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks, but they’re also a game out of the No. 1 seed in the NFC, holding the third-best record in the conference.
San Francisco has a tough finish to the season, facing three playoff contenders in the Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, and Seattle Seahawks. All three of those games could have serious playoff implications for the teams involved.
At this stage, it feels like the 49ers are going to end up as either the No. 1 seed in the NFC or as a wild-card team, given how the division picture looks at the top of the conference. Let’s break down the path for San Francisco to get to that coveted top seed and the first-round bye that comes with it.
Win out the remaining schedule
It’s not a must, but the 49ers would get a big boost to their No. 1 seed hopes if they win out their final three games. That would put them at 13-4, with a 5-1 division record (assuming they beat the Seahawks) and a 10-2 conference record.
It also gives them the tiebreaker over Seattle with the series sweep after the 49ers won all the way back in Week 1.
Help from the division
They will need help, though, to unseat the Rams at the top of the conference. The 49ers do need the Rams to lose at least one game, given that the latter is a game ahead in the standings. Los Angeles finishes its season with matchups against the Seahawks (road), Atlanta Falcons (road), and Arizona Cardinals (home).
The best shot at a Los Angeles loss is this weekend, so 49ers fans should be rooting for the Seahawks to beat the Rams and unseat them as the top seed in both the division and the conference.
In that scenario, Seattle would be at 11-3 and take the No. 1 seed, while the Rams would slide to 10-4. A 49ers win over the Colts bumps them to the No. 5 seed, while the Rams would fall to No. 6 due to their divisional record (4-1 for the 49ers vs. 3-2 for the Rams).
Then, even if Seattle wins in Week 17 against the Carolina Panthers and improves to 12-4, the 49ers can take both the division and the No. 1 seed in Week 18 with the win at Levi’s Stadium because they’d hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
There is no other team that can reach 13 wins here. The only other team with three losses in the NFC is the Chicago Bears, and the 49ers would beat them in Week 17 if they win out.
There are ways to obtain the No. 1 seed even if San Francisco loses this weekend, but those possibilities become infinitely tougher, and they’d need a lot more help from other teams.
There’s one simple path: the 49ers end with the No. 1 seed if they win out and get a Rams loss at some point in the next three weeks.
Category: General Sports
