2025 Commanders’ Tank Watch – Week 16

The Commanders finally pulled out of the nose-dive in Week 15, with a 29-21 win over the New York Giants.  The game showed that the Commanders still have the fight in them to bounce back from a disappointing shutout loss, and featured strong performances from rookie RB Bill Crosky-Merritt and PR Jaylin Lane, which bode well for a bounce back in 2026.

While the win will help to restore flagging confidence in the team’s direction in the near term, it also dealt a setback to the Commanders’ quest for a top-five draft pick. Entering Week 16, the Commanders sit in eighth place in the draft order based on current W-L record and Strength of Schedule (SOS), a drop of 2 positions from their position in Week 6.

Despite the setback, fans cheering for premium draft position can take heart.  It was not a complete disaster, thanks in part to help from one of the teams ahead of Washington in the draft order.  While a top-five finish is looking increasingly unlikely, the Commanders’ draft position is more likely than not to improve in Week 16, and there are realistic possibilities to move even further up the board.

If the Season Ended Today

There is no sugar coating the fact that the Commanders’ win over the Giants complicates their quest for a pick near the very top of the draft order. Yet, with just three games remaining in the regular season, it is still mathematically possible for Washington to finish with the first overall pick.

Realistically though, to move up more than one place from where they are now, the Commanders would have to beat some of the best tankers in the business at their own game.  As bad as the season has gone, the Commanders just aren’t up to the level of competition that they face at the top of the draft order.

To get a better idea of how high the Commanders can realistically expect to climb, and how far they could fall in the final three games, let’s have a look at how the draft order would shape up if the season ended today, courtesy of Tankathon:

Teams at 2-12

The Giants currently sit atop the draft order, with a narrow SOS margin over the second-place Raiders and a sizeable advantage over the Titans in third place.  In order for Washington to overtake any of these teams, the team in question would have to win two of their remaining games, while Washington loses out. 

The Commanders’ best chance for advancement in this group is probably the Giants, who showed some spunk in last week’s loss and have remaining games against the Vikings and Raiders, before closing the season against the Cowboys, who might be looking to preserve their own draft position in a meaningless game. 

The Raiders and Titans each have one remaining games against a playoff-seeded opponent (Raiders vs Texans; Titans vs Jaguars), one game against a softer opponent (Raiders vs Giants; Titans vs Saints) and one game against the Chiefs who just lost Patrick Mahomes for the season. It is not completely outside the realm of possibility for the Commanders to overtake one of these teams. But it would take a very fortunate turn of events.  Overtaking both would take a miracle.

Teams at 3-11

Based on current SOS, the Browns would need to win 2 more games to fall behind Washington; while the Jets and Cardinals would just need to win 1. If Washington does not win another game, the Jets and Cardinals will fall behind them with a single win.

The Commanders’ best chance for advancement via teams in this group comes either directly or indirectly from the Jets. The Jets face the Saints this weekend.  As long as the result is not a tie, and Washington does not beat the Eagles, we will advance one position in the draft order at the expense of the winner of that game.    

There is also a realistic possibility of overtaking the Cardinals, who face the Falcons and Bengals, before playing the final game of the season against the Rams, who might be resting starters for the playoffs by that point.

With the Browns scheduled to play the Bills, Steelers and Bengals, it seems exceedingly unlikely that they will win two more games to fall behind Washington.

Teams at 4-10

The Commanders are currently sandwiched between the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals. 

The Saints are currently on a two-game winning streak, fuelled by the emergence of Tyler Shough as a viable QB option. They face the moribund New York Jets this weekend, followed by the Titans and Falcons.  I would expect a win this weekend, to move the Commanders up one spot in the draft order, and maybe another to get them out of our way for the rest of the season.

The Bengals currently sit just behind Washington by a narrow SOS margin.  It is possible for the two teams to trade position as a result of variation in SOS as the remaining games are played.  They need to win at least one more game to give the Commanders some breathing room.  Fortunately, their remaining schedule features games against the Browns, Cardinals and Dolphins.  So there is a good chance that will happen.

5-9 Atlanta Falcons

Based on current SOS, another win would drop Washington behind the LA Rams who hold the Falcons’ first round pick. However, the SOS margin between the Commanders and Falcons is just 0.006, which is small enough to flip from week to week based on outcomes of each teams’ opponents’ games. It would be helpful to the Commanders for the Falcons to win another game to minimize the impact of another win for the Burgundy and Gold. Upcoming games against the Cardinals and Saints provide good opportunities for that to happen.

I don’t think it is worth worrying about teams with six or more wins.

Week 16 Rooting Guide

Unsure about which teams to root for this weekend to give Washington the best possible draft positon? Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered.  Here is a handy guide to all the Week 16 games with potential to give Washington an advantage in the 2026 draft. 

Most Important Game

New Orleans Saints (4-10) vs New York Jets (3-1) – One of these teams has to win.  It doesn’t matter which one it is.  As long as it is not tie, and Washington doesn’t beat the Eagles, the Burgundy and Gold will move ahead of the winner in the draft order and claw back one of the spots they lost by beating the Giants.  No ties allowed!

Next Most Important Games

Wins by the teams in bold have the greatest potential to move Washington up another spot in the draft order.

Cardinals (3-11) vs Falcons (5-9) – If the Cardinals can break their 6 game losing streak against the Falcons at home in State Farm Stadium, they will fall behind Washington in the draft order.  At the time of this writing, the Falcons are only favored by 2 pts.  Root for Jacoby Brissett to lead the songbirds to victory. Roll with it, Cardinals!

Giants (2-12) vs Vikings (6-8) – A Giants’ win doesn’t put them behind Washington in the draft order.  But it is an essential step in the right direction.  The Giants need to beat the Vikings to set up a pivotal match with the Raiders in Week 17 to put the Commanders ahead.  Put your long standing hatred of the Maras aside for two weeks.  The G-Men can help the Commanders move up in the draft order and take an impact player off the board whom we might otherwise have to face twice a year.  Big Blue to the rescue!

Other Week 16 Games

Wins by the teams in bold are more likely to help the Commanders achieve better draft position.

Washington Commanders (4-10) vs Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) – I can’t advise Hogs Haven readers to cheer for a Washington loss.  But, the facts are a Commanders’ win is likely to drop them out of the top 10 and into second-tier draft prospect territory. Go team!

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-6) – The most important differentiating factor between these teams is that only the Lions are a Commanders’ opponent.  That means a Lions loss helps with all of Washington’s potential tiebreaks.  Plus, I really don’t like the Lions.  Waive your terrible towels!

Baltimore Ravens (7-7) vs New England Patriots (11-3) – This one has clear implications for SOS. The Patriots play nearly all of Washington’s potential rivals for draft position. Most notable among them are the Saints.  The Saints’ SOS is so close to Washington’s, that a few wins by their opponent, or losses by Washington opponents, might be enough for Washington to overtake them in the draft order, even if both teams lose out.  Of course, the Saints might take care of that themselves by beating the Jets this weekend. In that case, a Patriots win still helps to give the Commanders a buffer in case they win a game of their own. Let’s go Patriots!

Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) vs Chicago Bears (10-4) – Like the previous game, the deciding factor is that the Bears play the Saints, so a Chicago win helps the Commanders win the tiebreak with their closest rival.  The Packers play the Cardinals whose SOS is so much stronger than Washington’s that we aren’t likely to need help in a tiebreak with them.  Da Bears!

San Francisco 49ers (10-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – A 49ers’ win is more likely to benefit Washington than a Colts win.  San Francisco plays the Saints, Browns and Giants, who could feature in tiebreaks with Washington.  The Colts play the Raiders, and the Titans one more time than the 49ers do.  The Commanders are less likely to find themselves in tiebreaks with their non-shared opponents. Let’s go Niners!

Tennessee Titans (2-12) vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – Wouldn’t it be cool if Gardner Minshew provided the spark the Chiefs needed to revive their season? Well, it might not be the best thing for the Commanders’ draft position. Discounting the possibility of the Titans directly competing with with the Commanders  for draft position, this one is all about SOS. Each team plays a few of Washingtons’ potential rivals.  The most important opponents that they don’t share are the Saints and Browns, who play the Titans, and the Commanders, who play the Chiefs.  Everything points to a Titans win being most likely to benefit the Commanders in a SOS tiebreak.  OOH! OOH! OOH! Go Titans!

Buffalo Bills (10-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-11)– There is a timeline in which the Browns win two more games and fall behind the Commanders in the draft order.  It is a strange place, where the laws of physics as we know them do not apply.  In order for that to happen, the least effective offense in the NFL (-0.181 EPA/play) will have to prevail over the Bengals and either the Steelers or the Bills. That’s not going to happen.  This game is more likely to influence Washington’s draft position through the SOS tiebreaker.  In particular, the Bills are opponents of Washington’s closest rival, the New Orleans Saints, as well as the Browns and Falcons.  A win by the Bills could help to push Washington past the Saints.  The Bills should make you wanna SHOUT!

Miami Dolphins (6-8) vs Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – The Bengals are a bit too close for comfort.  A Bengals’ win gives Washington some buffer in case they win another game.  As far as impacts on SOS go, the biggest factor is that Dolphins played Washington and the Bengals did not. Consequently, a Dolphins’ loss helps Washington in any SOS tiebreak.  A Bengals win is most likely to benefit the Commanders. Go tigers!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) @ Houston Texans (9-5) – Theoretically, the Raiders could drop behind the Commanders by winning two more games.  The Week 17 Giants game is their best shot and then they close the season against Garnder Minshew and the Kansas City Chiefs. So I guess it’s possible.  This game is more likely to affect the Commanders’ draft position via the SOS tiebreak. The most important opponents that these teams don’t have in common are the Browns, who play the Raiders, and the Cardinals and Raiders, who play the Texans. Of these, the Commanders are most likely to need help in a tiebreak with the Browns.  Overall, this game is unlikely to help the Commanders’ draft position. But if it does, it’s most likely via a Raiders’ win.  Just win baby!

Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) vs LA Chargers (10-4) – There are a number of ways that either team winning could potentially benefit the Commanders in an SOS tiebreak, but they all involve unlikely scenarios. Most importantly, the Cowboys play the Commanders twice; whereas the Chargers played them once.  So a Cowboys’ win will have a bigger negative impact on any SOS tiebreak than a Chargers’ win.  Bolt Up!

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) @ Denver Broncos (12-2) – Each team has a few un-shared opponents who could come up in a tiebreak with Washington.  But the most important point of distinction is that the Broncos are a Commanders opponent.  A Denver loss helps with all of our tiebreaks.  Broncos Country, Let’s Ride!

Seattle Seahawks (11-3) vs LA Rams (11-3) – The only non-shared opponent of either team that matters to Washington’s draft position is the Saints, who play the Seahawks.  However, any bump in the Saints’ SOS resulting from a Seahawks win would be offset by an equal bump in the Commanders’ SOS, since they are also one of our opponents.  So, a Seahawks win does not help with Washington’s most important rivalry. A Seahawks loss, on the other hand, potentially helps in tiebreaks with the Browns, Bengals and Falcons, should they come up.  Whose House?! Our House!

Unimportant Game

Carolina Panthers (7-7) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) – These teams are evenly matched. Neither plays any of Washington’s potential rivals for draft position that the other doesn’t play as well.  I can’t see any way in which the outcome of this game influence’s Washington’s draft position. Your call, doesn’t matter