Will a healthier Alabama have a better shot against Oklahoma’s buzzsaw of a defense?
Let’s just start with this:
After a year of trusting another defensive coordinator, head coach Brent Venables is back to acting as the DC this year. And, well, they’re giving up all of 14 points per game – one of the best in the entire country. The’ve absolutely stymied most of their schedule, but Michigan, Auburn, and South Carolina haven’t exactly been good offenses all year, so take that with a grain of salt. They did hold Tennessee to 27 points and gave up 34 to Ole Miss, which are really the only two high-level offenses they’ve faced on the season. Still, they’re in the argument for the top defense in the SEC.
Venables has a history of running something of a chameleon defense. It’s mostly a 4-3 or 4-2-5, but he’s constantly shifting the fronts around and hunting matchups. Some games will feature a more true heavy DT and NT combo with edge rushers, but some games he’ll use some big ends as interior rushers more often. And there will always be plenty of blitzes and simulated pressures with stunts. It’s a creative approach to the front seven, and it’s extremely disruptive. The Sooners have an absolutely absurd 97 tackles for loss this season.
A couple of days after I posted those paragraphs, Oklahoma broke Alabama’s spine in a game where they forced three turnovers, scored a pick-6, racked up 4 sacks, and held Alabama to a paltry 21 points that knocked the Tide out of the top-5. Then they followed that up by allowing 6 total points to Missouri and 13 to LSU.
In terms of metrics, the Sooners trail only Texas Tech and Ohio State in terms of an overall PPA/play, and trail only Indiana and TTU in a Havoc rate. Essentially, they are one of the very top defenses in all of college football.
Oh, and R Mason Thomas, the Sooners’ top pass rusher who missed the first matchup with Alabama, might be back.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said Monday offensive lineman Jake Maikkula and defensive end R Mason Thomas will participate in practices this week ahead of the Sooners‘ first-round College Football Playoff game against Alabama.
Thomas hasn’t played since injuring his quad when he returned a fumble 71 yards for a touchdown against Tennessee on Nov. 1.
In the first matchup, Oklahoma put Ty Simpson in blender with swapping their 2-high and single-high safety coverages post snap while sending relentless stunts and false blitzes. The Alabama QB burned them a few times (it was actually one of his best passing days in terms of yards in the last while), but the strategy also led to the Sooners getting a handful of timely turnovers and sacks that ultimately wrecked the Tide.
The things with Venables is that Alabama probably shouldn’t expect the exact same strategy. Will he do a lot of the same stuff until Simpson proves he doesn’t wilt? Of course. But there will also be mixups. It’s, honestly, a really impressive display of high-level football strategy and coaching.
In the last matchup, Alabama scored 21 – but that was in Tuscaloosa. This time, they’ll be in Norman, plus the Tide is fresh off of a totally failed attempt at offense in Atlanta.
Unless something crazy clicks for Alabama, I struggle to foresee the Tide getting any higher than their 21 points from a month ago, and even that feels like a long shot.
Maybe getting Jam Miller, Parker Brailsford, and Josh Cuevas back, plus getting guys like Ty Simpson and Germie Bernard a week of rest, will give Alabama a boost that they haven’t had in over a month. But, more likely, expect this to be another game of much of the same: Alabama will struggle to run the ball, and ultimately everything will come down to Simpson being able to nail those intermediate throws under pressure. Again.
Lets go with 20 for the Tide, and hope for the best.
Roll Tide.
Category: General Sports
